• WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. CB Alex Austin, New England Patriots: Davis’ downfield role should be featured in Buffalo’s Week 17 game plan.

• WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons vs. CB Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears: Atlanta’s league-low passing volume combined with Chicago’s talented cornerback corps make London a shaky WR3.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Knowing when an NFL wide receiver has an advantageous or disadvantageous cornerback matchup is critical for fantasy football start-sit decisions. This article details six players to be started with confidence or avoided at all costs, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart for Week 17.

3 Wide Receivers to Target

WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. CB Alex Austin, New England Patriots

Davis scored 1.10 half-points-per-reception points against New England in Week 7, finishing as the WR88, but New England’s expected Week 17 starting secondary includes just three of seven starters and/or impactful rotational backups from that game. New England’s defensive losses, league-worst pass rush, league-best run defense and new Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s willingness to target weaknesses set the stage for a high-volume, fruitful outing for Davis.

Among 60 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 targets thrown 12-plus yards downfield, Davis’ 91.4 PFF receiving grade on such plays ranks 26th and his 25.6 yards per reception ranks 15th. Davis has week-winning upside as a WR3.

FanDuel implies Buffalo will score 27.0 points as 13.5-point home favorites.

Key potential absences for New England’s secondary include starting free safety Jabrill Peppers (multi-week hamstring strain) and utility interior coverage defender Jalen Mills (NFL concussion protocol). The unit has also lost multiple perimeter cornerbacks to injured reserve and/or off-field issues. Peppers’ 80.7 PFF coverage grade ranks 11th among 64 NFL safeties with at least 315 coverage snaps, and Mills’ 52.4 PFF coverage grade ranks second among three New England safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps.

The table below ranks in parentheses New England’s expected starting secondary players, including perimeter cornerback Jonathan Jones’ coverage data among 64 cornerbacks with at least 270 perimeter-coverage snaps, safety Kyle Dugger’s coverage data among 64 safeties with at least 315 coverage snaps and slot cornerback Myles Bryant’s slot coverage data among 33 cornerbacks with at least 180 slot-coverage snaps. Fill-in strong safety Marte Mapu and fill-in perimeter cornerback Alex Austin’s coverage data is left unranked due to their limited samples.

New England head coach Bill Belichick frequently tasks Jones with covering the opposition’s downfield wide receiver, but as evidenced by Davis’ 30 Week 7 receiving snaps away from Jones, this assignment is not ironclad. Davis should have ample opportunity to pick on Austin, a seventh-round rookie, playing without Peppers’ assistance.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Buffalo a 15.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 17’s sixth-best mark. New England ranks dead last in pass-rush win rate (34.6%), 27th in quarterback pressure rate (31.7%) and 26th in pass-rush productivity (24.6).

New England’s run defense ranks first in both success rate allowed (29.3%) and expected points added allowed per play (-0.213).

Brady’s playcalling skews heavily toward the opposition’s schematic weakness. He called a season-high 49 run plays against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15 and organized the Week 16 passing game around the Los Angeles Chargers’ permissive downfield coverage. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen’s 12.7-yard Week 16 average depth of target is a season-high figure.

New England’s elite run defense, league-worst pass rush and spackled secondary should facilitate comfortable pockets for Allen, allowing ample time for Davis’ downfield routes to develop. Allen is an elite all-around quarterback but excels on unpressured dropbacks.

Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 unpressured dropbacks, Allen’s 93.1 PFF passing grade ties for first. He ranks 13th or better in big-time-throw rate (5.2%), turnover-worthy play rate (1.8%), yards per passing attempt (7.9) and adjusted completion rate (80.6%).

Davis has week-winning upside as a Week 17 WR3.

WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints vs. CB Christian Izien, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans’ No. 1 wide receiver is a half-PPR WR1 thanks to Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy defensive tactics and shaky coverage unit.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives New Orleans a -26.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, but edge rusher Shaq Barrett, whose 84.3 PFF pass-rush grade ranks in the top 12 among 64 NFL edge rushers with at least 260 pass-rushing snaps, is unlikely to play due to a strained groin.

As detailed in Week 17’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Tampa Bay’s blitz-dependent pass rush will frequently commit extra defenders to pursue New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr, including stud safety Antoine Winfield Jr., whose 92.8 PFF pass-rush grade on blitzes ranks first among 35 linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties with at least 55 blitzing pass-rush snaps. The veteran Carr is entirely unafraid to fire downfield in these situations, with his 9.3-yard average depth of target when blitzed ranking fourth among 27 quarterbacks with at least 100 blitzed dropbacks.

Removing Winfield from coverage will prove costly against Olave, who is one among eight NFL wide receivers to earn at least 50 targets on blitzed dropback. His 2.53 yards per route run on such targets ranks third. Among 64 NFL safeties with at least 315 coverage snaps, Winfield’s 85.3 PFF coverage grade ranks fifth and Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks possess glaring deficiencies.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Olave an excellent 85.9 receiving matchup advantage rating against Tampa Bay’s cornerback corps, Week 17’s sixth best. Olave runs routes lined up in the slot pre-snap at a 39.7% plurality rate, followed by a 37.8% wide-right rate and a 21.5% wide-left rate, giving him complete access to the Buccaneers' secondary.

Christian Izien’s 65.0 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 20th among 33 cornerbacks with at least 180 slot-coverage snaps. His 76.1% catch rate allowed ranks 24th and his 10 explosive pass plays allowed tie for the second-highest sum.

Tampa Bay No. 1 cornerback Jamel Dean will likely be sidekicked by backup perimeter cornerback Zyon McCollum. No. 2 cornerback Carlton Davis III is in the NFL’s concussion protocol. Among 64 cornerbacks with at least 270 perimeter coverage snaps, Dean ranks 49th or worse in catch rate allowed (67.3%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.37) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.5%). McCollum defends against explosive gains marginally better, tying for 45th in the latter stat (3.2%).

As detailed in the aforementioned quarterback matchups article, Tampa Bay’s splash-zone coverage is among the league’s worst. And while Olave is not a voluminous splash-zone route runner, his 75.0% explosive pass play rate on splash=zone receptions ties for 13th among 38 wide receivers with at least 15 splash-zone targets.

Olave is a half-PPR WR1.

WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers vs. DB Josh Metellus, Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay slot receiver Jayden Reed logged “limited participant” practice designations on Wednesday and Thursday, signaling Week 17 activation following his Week 16 absence due to toe and chest injuries. Reed is a high-volume WR3 with high-end upside, thanks in part to his reduced target competition and Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defensive scheme. Among 32 NFL slot receivers with at least 180 slot-receiving snaps, Reed’s 69.8 PFF slot receiving grade ranks 11th.

The game’s 44.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 17’s fifth highest. FanDuel implies Green Bay will score 21.5 points.

Green Bay Nos. 1 and 4 wide receivers Christian Watson (multi-week hamstring strain) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest and ankle injuries) are unable to practice and thus unlikely to play this week. Among four Green Bay wide receivers with at least 100 receiving snaps, Watson’s 70.6 PFF receiving grade ranks third and Wicks’ 75.8 PFF receiving grade ranks first. Reed’s 49 first-read targets rank second among Green Bay wide receivers, and his overall 22.5% target rate ranks first.

Reed is also Green Bay’s most voluminous target earner on blitzed dropbacks (29 targets), and his 4.6 yards after the catch per reception on blitzed dropbacks figure ranks first among expectedly active Green Bay wide receivers.

Reed will mostly face off against Vikings slot defensive back Josh Metellus, whose 59.4 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 27th among 38 defensive backs with at least 180 slot coverage snaps. Metellus ranks 35th in catch rate allowed (87.0%) and dead last in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.84) while tying for second worst in explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.7%).

Minnesota’s defense blitzes at the league’s highest rate, 55.2%.

Reed should have ample opportunities to pick up yards against Metellus, operating as the team’s primary weapon on blitzed dropbacks. He is a high-end WR3.

3 Wide Receivers to Avoid

WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons vs. CB Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears

Falcons No. 1 wide receiver Drake London is a shaky half-PPR WR3 against Chicago. Atlanta’s offensive commitment to the run coupled with the Bears' ascending secondary creates roadblocks to a high-scoring day for the second-year wide receiver. London’s 81.1 PFF receiving grade ranks 17th among 63 wide receivers with at least 360 receiving snaps.

The game’s 37.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 17’s third lowest. FanDuel implies Atlanta will score 20.25 points.

Atlanta’s 54.4% passing rate ranks dead last in the NFL. The insufficient passing volume is further compounded by quarterback Taylor Heinicke’s lackluster arm. Among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Heinicke ranks 26th or worse in average depth of target (7.9), yards per passing attempt (6.8) and big-time-throw rate (3.6%). His 62.7 PFF passing grade ranks 30th and his 70.2% adjusted completion rate ranks 40th.

Given London’s subpar offensive environment, high-volume usage is typically required for him to return WR3-plus value. His 21.1% target rate and 1.92 yards per route run figure rank 24th and 23rd, respectively, among 63 NFL wide receivers with at least 360 receiving snaps.

London’s non-elite target-earning profile bodes poorly for his impending matchup with Chicago’s No. 1 cornerback Jaylon Johnson, flanked by rotational perimeter cornerbacks Terell Smith (Week 17’s primary No. 2) and Tyrique Stevenson along with slot cornerback Kyler Gordon.

London runs routes lined up wide-left at a 44.9% pre-snap alignment plurality, followed by a 29.2% wide-right rate and a 25.8% slot rate.

Among 84 cornerbacks with at least 180 perimeter coverage snaps, Johnson ranks ninth in catch rate (50.0%), second in targeted rate (9.8%) and first in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.37), explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.4%) and PFF coverage grade (91.1). Smith’s 69.1 PFF perimeter coverage grade respectably ranks 36th, while Stevenson’s 59.1 mark ranks 75th.

Among 33 cornerbacks with at least 180 slot coverage snaps, Gordon’s 70.1 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 13th.

London is unlikely to return high-end WR3 value.

WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots vs. CB Taron Johnson, Buffalo Bills

New England slot receiver Demario Douglas entices with excellent per-route efficiency but is unable to deliver week-winning results and now faces a tough one-on-one matchup with Buffalo slot cornerback Taron Johnson. Douglas’ 74.6 PFF slot receiving grade ties for eighth among 37 wide receivers with at least 170 slot receiving snaps, and Johnson’s 81.4 PFF slot coverage grade ranks third among 33 cornerbacks with at least 180 slot coverage snaps. Douglas is a low-ceiling half-PPR WR4.

FanDuel implies New England will score just 13.5 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives New England a -4.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, boding poorly for inefficient quarterback Bailey Zappe. Among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Zappe’s 59.5 PFF passing grade ranks 35th, while his 6.3 yards per passing attempt and 73.3% adjusted completion rate rank 36th and 29th, respectively.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Douglas to face Johnson on 15 of 23 receiving snaps, giving Douglas a below-average 32.1 receiving matchup advantage rating.

Among 37 NFL wide receivers with at least 170 slot-receiving snaps, Douglas ranks in the top 10 in target rate (26.2%), yards per route run (1.97) and yards after the catch per reception (5.4) but ranks 19th or worse in average depth of target (8.8) and catch rate (64.4%).

Among 33 cornerbacks with at least 180 slot coverage snaps, Johnson’s 0.75 yards allowed per coverage snap figure ranks third and his 1.9% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 11th.

Douglas is a low-ceiling half-PPR WR4.

WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts vs. CB Amik Robertson, Las Vegas Raiders

Downfield wide receiver Alec Pierce was given an increased role following the Colts' Week 11 bye, earning at least six targets in three of five games and even producing a Week 13 WR1 finish. Pierce cannot be trusted to return usable results in Week 17 against Las Vegas’ elite perimeter cornerback tandem, Amik Robertson and in-season signee Jack Jones. Pierce’s 57.9 PFF receiving grade since Indianapolis’ Week 11 bye ranks fourth among Indianapolis wide receivers.

Among 66 cornerbacks with at least 50 perimeter coverage snaps in Weeks 14-16, Robertson’s 80.3 PFF perimeter coverage grade ties for sixth and Jones’ 90.4 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks first.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Indianapolis a -9.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating. As detailed in Week 17’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Las Vegas’ pass rush will likely keep Indianapolis quarterback Gardner Minshew under duress. Among 46 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Minshew’s 59.1 PFF passing grade ranks 36th.

Among 64 wide receivers with at least 65 perimeter receiving snaps in Weeks 12-16, Pierce ranks outside the top 50 in both target rate (13.5%) and yards per route run (1.08).

In the aforementioned period, Pierce has run routes lined up wide-left at a 46.3% pre-snap alignment plurality rate, followed closely by a 39.0% wide-right clip. Pierce will primarily face Robertson on Las Vegas’ defensive-right side, but Jones will also take his fair share of repetitions against Pierce on the left.

Among 66 cornerbacks with at least 50 perimeter coverage snaps in Weeks 14-16, Robertson ranks 24th in catch rate allowed (54.5%), 28th in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.86) and ninth in explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.1%). Jones ranks tied for 17th in catch rate allowed (46.2%), ninth in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.47) and 19th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.7%).

Pierce should not be started in 12-team leagues.