Welcome to the latest installment of “Coach, I Was Open,” my ongoing statistics series, where I build and refine a model to predict targets for every route in every NFL game.
I created this model using route-level PFF data to predict the probability of each route being targeted on every play in the NFL. This model generates interesting metrics such as “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards.” These metrics are more stable and predictive than their actual counterparts.
The core idea behind creating this model is that a player might be “earning targets” by consistently getting open and running valuable routes but not receiving targets for various reasons — such as quarterback pressure, a misread or the quarterback forcing the ball elsewhere. After reviewing the film, teams may recognize that certain players were open and adjust their game plan to involve them more in subsequent weeks.
Later, we discuss Kirk Cousins and how he held back the Falcons‘ offensive weapons before being benched this week.
Week 15 Recap
The model identified three players who ended up recording season highs in targets: A.J. Brown, Xavier Worthy and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Tight end Jonnu Smith‘s 11 targets tied his season high, Tee Higgins had a solid eight targets and Deebo Samuel recorded seven targets.
Drake London finished last week with a solid 17.6% target share, but that amounted to only three targets due to Kirk Cousins attempting just 17 passes.
IDENTIFYING BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR WEEK 16
Three Falcons players show up on the list this week with Michael Penix Jr. set to make his first NFL start at quarterback. Darnell Mooney had an absolutely massive difference in his Week 15 target share and share of predicted targets (.18). But with the change at quarterback, I would be weary of the model since the offense could undergo a massive change.
As discussed in our “Route-Based Heroes” article, DK Metcalf has an OK matchup but generally does not excel versus middle-of-field-open coverages, which the Vikings run a lot.
Tank Dell is an interesting name on this week’s list since he is also a route-based hero and has a great single-coverage matchup. I would not be shocked to see Dell earn a season high in targets this week.
Season Leaders in Share of Predicted Targets
Not too much has changed week over week. The biggest surprise is that Cooper Kupp continues to be ahead of Puka Nacua without producing as well as Nacua.
Quarterback Decision Making — Week 15
The Predicted Targets Model allows us to evaluate a quarterback’s performance over a single game, a series of games or even an entire season. This model analyzes every route on every play, calculating the probability that a given player will be targeted based on factors such as openness, PFF grade, level of separation and more. By leveraging this route-level data, we can determine whether the quarterback made an optimal decision. I filtered the data only to plays where there were at least two routes, meaning the quarterback had to make a decision.
To simplify the analysis, I categorized every decision into three distinct categories:
- Optimal Decision: The quarterback threw to the player with the highest target probability.
- Suboptimal Decision: The quarterback threw to a player who did not have the highest target probability.
- Bad Decision: The quarterback threw to the player with the lowest target probability.
Kirk Cousins is the talk of the week after being benched. My model shows that Cousins made the optimal decision only 53.8% of the time and made an outright bad decision 23.1% of the time — which led the NFL in Week 15. The Falcons have immediate playoff hopes and cannot afford to rely on this level of decision-making or offensive execution at this point in the season.
On this play, Bijan Robinson and Ross Dwelley both ran quick smoke screen routes and were wide open. Darnell Mooney ends up being wide open on a hitch, too. Drake London is slightly more covered but still open in the NFL. Cousins instead throws it to Charlie Woerner, who has the least amount of separation on the play and was the only player classified as “not open.” The play resulted in an interception. There really is no way around this being an awful decision.
This next play is not specifically about Cousins' decision-making. On second-and-6, the Raiders end up sending all-out pressure. The Falcons have many wide-open receivers, but Cousins simply cannot avoid the rush and throws a lame-duck incompletion.
With Cousins' age, the current state of his arm and his mobility, he has to make up for his physical deficiencies with mental aptitude. But plays like this show that that is easier said than done.
This play bothered me, as the announcers praised Cousins for making a good decision to throw to London on a 5-yard out route to get the first down. However, they did not acknowledge Ray Ray McCloud running wide open in the middle of the field for what could have been a 20-plus-yard gain — at a minimum. It would have also been significantly easier on the Falcons instead of needing to rely on Drake London to make a great play on the sideline.
Sorry if I seem harsh on Cousins this week, but there is a clear reason he was benched. It was simply time. On the season, Cousins has the 18th-ranked PFF passing grade among quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks. Since Week 10, he ranks third worst.
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