• WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. CB DaRon Bland, Dallas Cowboys: Davis’ matchup against Dallas’ ball-hawking perimeter cornerbacks generates contrarian appeal for bold, savvy fantasy managers.

• WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. CB Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens: Ridley faces a difficult matchup, catching passes from an injured quarterback.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Knowing when an NFL wide receiver has an advantageous or disadvantageous cornerback matchup is critical for fantasy football start-sit decisions. This article details six players to be started with confidence or avoided at all costs, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart for Week 15.

3 Wide Receivers to Target

WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. CB DaRon Bland, Dallas Cowboys

Buffalo’s No. 2 wide receiver Gabe Davis’ middling 66.7 PFF receiving grade accurately reflects his inconsistent, explosive-pass-play-dependent play style. His Week 15 matchup profiles as positively volatile, taking on Dallas’ ball-hawking perimeter cornerbacks DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, whose respective 89.9 PFF perimeter coverage grade and 72.9 PFF perimeter coverage grade rank and tie for second and 17th among 65 cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter coverage snaps. Davis is a half-PPR WR2.

Davis runs routes lined up on the perimeter at an 83.4% rate, with a slight lean toward a wide-left pre-snap alignment. Bland will be his primary coverage foe, although Davis will have ample opportunities to outrun Gilmore on the opposite side.

The game’s 50.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 15’s highest. FanDuel implies Buffalo will score 26.5 points.

Davis’ sideline-sprinting role makes for chaotic results. He has logged five weekly half-PPR finishes inside the position’s top 15 and six outside the position’s top 64. Bland and Gilmore’s interception-hunting styles occasionally lead to coverage breakdowns.

On targets thrown between the sideline and painted numbers at least 10 yards downfield, Dallas’ coverage unit ranks 20th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (34.1%) and 15th in expected points allowed per pass play (0.286). Among qualifying perimeter cornerbacks, Bland ranks outside the top 55 in both yards allowed per coverage snap (1.48) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (4.0%), while Gilmore ranks 38th or worse in both respective categories, allowing 1.14 and 2.8% rates. Bland’s 9.8% interception rate ranks third, and Gilmore’s 3.2% rate ranks 19th.

Among 31 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 such targets, Davis ranks 10th in average depth of target (21.9), sixth in deep-target rate (56.7%) and tied for fourth in explosive pass play rate (84.6%).

Davis’ negative volatility remains a constant factor, but this matchup bodes shockingly well for his one-dimensional usage. He is a half-PPR WR2 with extreme contrarian DFS appeal.

WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals vs. CB Deommodore Lenoir, San Francisco 49ers

As detailed in Week 15’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” quarterback Kyler Murray should build on his promising 68.5 PFF offense grade, comfortably delivering passes thanks to San Francisco’s injury-hampered defensive front. Arizona No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown should likewise improve his 68.8 PFF receiving grade against his penciled-in primary coverage foe in cornerback Deommodore Lenoir.

Brown lines up across the formation pre-snap, primarily running routes at a 41.7% wide-left plurality.

San Francisco again reoriented its secondary last week, with No. 1 cornerback Charvarius Ward straining his groin and Lenoir getting ejected. Initial reports fall short of guaranteeing Ward’s Week 15 availability, as is expected; wide receivers average 1.5 games missed due to the injury, per doctor of physical therapy Adam Hutchison’s Injury Report. Lenoir remains at risk for a potential suspension. As previously detailed, San Francisco lost Nos. 1 and 3 safeties Talanoa Hufanga and George Odum, leading to an increase in explosive plays allowed.

Ward’s 75.4 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 14th among 65 cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter coverage snaps, and his 57.1% catch rate allowed ties for 19th. However, his 1.16 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks 40th and his 2.1% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 27th. Lenoir’s 66.1% catch rate allowed ties for 19th, though his 1.42 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks 40th and his 2.2% explosive pass plays allowed rate is entirely unimposing despite his 72.4 PFF perimeter coverage grade.

Backup perimeter cornerback Ambry Thomas, likely playing in Ward’s stead, offers a team-high 70.7% catch rate to opposing wide receivers, ironically countering his 70.7 PFF perimeter coverage grade.

Among 36 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 150 slot-coverage snaps, San Francisco slot cornerback Isaiah Oliver permissively allows a 36th-ranked 92.3% catch rate. His 61.5 PFF slot coverage grade ranks No. 21.

In Weeks 12-14, San Francisco’s injury-weakened coverage unit ranked 16th in expected points allowed per pass play (-0.069), 18th in catch rate allowed (69.1%), 17th in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.90) and 23rd in explosive pass plays allowed rate (14.6%).

Brown was deployed as a Week 13 decoy, playing through a nagging heel injury. The team’s Week 14 bye bodes positively for his recovery, and his Weeks 10-12 usage with Murray under center signals incoming explosive pass plays. His 42.1% deep-target rate ranked first among 68 NFL wide receivers with at least 65 receiving snaps in Weeks 10-12.

Brown is a half-PPR WR3 with top-12 upside.

WR D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears vs. CB Martin Emerson Jr., Cleveland Browns

Cleveland’s cornerbacks, who are susceptible to explosive pass plays, and injury-depleted safety unit push Bears No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore to a half-PPR WR1 in Week 15.

Moore’s runs route at a 45.0% wide-left pre-snap alignment plurality, followed by a 34.0% wide-right rate and a 20.6% slot rate. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Moore a good 79.4 receiving matchup advantage rating against Browns cornerback Martin Emerson Jr., whose 2.6% explosive pass plays allowed rate and 10 explosive pass plays allowed both rank 40th worst among 65 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter coverage snaps. His 69.7 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 30th.

Left cornerback Denzel Ward (shoulder) practiced in a limited capacity last week, improving his Week 15 availability odds. His 63.1 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 41st among qualifying NFL cornerbacks, but his 2.8% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 45th.

Safety Grant Delpit’s 75.5 PFF coverage grade ranks 16th among 64 NFL safeties with at least 270 coverage snaps and is likely headed to injured reserve following a Week 14 groin injury and a knee injury suffered in Friday’s practice. Fellow starting safety Juan Thornhill logged a “full participant” practice designation last Friday but was unable to play due to a nagging calf strain. He may have suffered a pre-game setback. Thornhill’s 1.0% explosive pass plays allowed rate ties for 18th and Delpit’s 0.5% rate ranks fourth.

Cleveland’s perimeter cornerbacks will struggle to slow Moore downfield with both safeties likely sidelined. Moore’s 31.9% deep-target rate on first-read targets ranks first among 39 NFL wide receivers with at least 55 first-read targets.

Chicago’s coaching staff smartly runs Moore’s routes through the splash zone, located between the painted numbers and at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines. Among 33 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 splash-zone targets, Moore’s 70.0% explosive pass plays rate ranks 16th, his 22.7 yards per reception figure ranks 10th, his 14.19 yards per route run ranks seventh and his two missed tackles forced are tied for eighth.

Cleveland’s splash-zone coverage defense allows 13.54 yards per coverage snap to players lined up on the perimeter, the second-highest average among coverage units.

Moore is a half-PPR WR1.

3 Wide Receivers to Avoid

WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. CB Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville No. 1 wide receiver Calvin Ridley faces a brutal Week 15 matchup against Baltimore’s elite coverage defense, led by No. 1 cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Ridley’s cause is destabilized by Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence‘s Week 13 high-ankle sprain. Ridley is just a zero-floor half-PPR WR4.

FanDuel implies Jacksonville will score just 20.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Jacksonville a 26.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 15’s seventh worst. As detailed in Week 15’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Lawrence’s ankle injury severely reduced his ability to throw on the move, resulting in a 30th-ranked 47.8 PFF passing grade in Week 14. Playing under duress, Lawrence attempted zero next-read passing attempts for the first time this year, either forcing passes to his first read, checking down or triggering the scramble drill. The situation is unlikely to improve against Baltimore's potent pass rush.

Ridley recorded a season-high 28.1% pre-snap alignment slot rate but failed to earn a target in Week 14, and head coach Doug Pederson largely continued pigeonholing him as a sideline field-stretcher; nine of Ridley’s 11 targets came between the sideline and the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Seam-stretching wide receiver Zay Jones saw five splash-zone targets to Ridley’s two, despite Jones’ playing through a multi-month knee injury. Among 65 NFL receivers with at least 10 splash-zone targets, Jones’ 4.91 yards per splash-zone route run ranks 64th. His season-long 62.5 PFF receiving grade points to continued subpar play.

Baltimore’s sideline coverage on targets thrown at least 10 yards downfield ranks first among NFL teams in four of five major coverage categories, including success rate allowed (31.7%), catch rate allowed (31.7%), yards allowed per coverage snap (6.20) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (21.1%).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Ridley an average 61.4 receiving matchup advantage rating against Humphrey.

Among 65 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter-coverage snaps, Humphrey ties for 16th in catch rate allowed (56.0%), sixth in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.79) and 44th in PFF perimeter-coverage grade (60.2).

Ridley is unlikely to improve his 36th-ranked 69.6 PFF receiving grade. He can only be ranked as a zero-floor WR4 in Week 15.

WR Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers vs. CB A.J. Terrell, Atlanta Falcons

Panthers No. 1 wide receiver Jonathan Mingo plays inefficiently in his newly bestowed role and cannot be trusted in a looming perimeter matchup against lockdown cornerback A.J. Terrell.

The game’s 34.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 15’s second lowest. FanDuel implies Carolina will score just 15.75 points. That prospect is reinforced by both Atlanta’s capable coverage unit and clock-killing offense. Opponents average just 63.2 offensive plays per game against Atlanta, tying for the NFL’s second fewest.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Mingo a poor 5.9 receiving matchup advantage rating against Terrell. Terrell’s 72.9 PFF perimeter coverage grade ties for 17th among 65 cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter coverage snaps. His 56.0% catch rate allowed ties for 16th, his 0.84 yards allowed per coverage snap ties for 10th and his 1.8% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 11th.

Whether No. 2 cornerback Jeff Okudah (ankle) plays remains to be seen. Backup perimeter cornerback Clark Phillips III has impressively limited opposing pass catchers to just 0.27 yards allowed per coverage snap and a 0.0% explosive pass play allowed rate on 88 coverage snaps, reducing the team’s need to return Okudah quickly.

While Mingo’s 16 first-read targets over the past two weeks lead Carolina pass catchers by seven, the coaching staff does him no favors. Just two of Mingo’s targets in Weeks 13-14 were thrown into the splash zone. That led to an inefficient 1.28 yards per route run figure, which tied for just 37th among 66 NFL wide receivers with at least 40 receiving snaps over the span.

Terrell is backed up by Atlanta safety Jessie Bates III’s elite coverage play. Among 64 NFL safeties with at least 270 coverage snaps, Bates’s 89.4 PFF coverage grade ranks second, his 60.7% catch rate allowed ranks 11th and his 0.44 yards allowed per coverage snap ties for 15th.

Mingo is not yet a reliable half-PPR starter.

WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings vs. CB D.J. Turner II, Cincinnati Bengals

Minnesota No. 2 wide receiver Jordan Addison is a half-PPR WR4 against Cincinnati’s talented cornerback trio. Cornerback D.J. Turner II is his primary coverage foe.

FanDuel implies Minnesota will score just 18.0 points.

Addison runs routes at a 40.9% wide-right pre-snap-alignment plurality, followed by a 31.8% wide-left rate and a 26.8% slot rate.

Vikings No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson’s 89.9 PFF receiving grade ranks fifth among 104 NFL wide receivers with at least 200 receiving snaps. He promisingly began the week with a “limited participant” practice designation following his Week 14 chest injury, likely pushing Addison to the No. 3 pass catcher role.

Addison delivers moderate results when given first-read usage; his 1.75 yards per route run on first-read targets ties for 46th among 67 NFL wide receivers with at least 35 first-read targets.

Addison’s above-average rookie-season results are promising, but he has yet to assume a difference-making role. Among 66 NFL wide receivers with at least 310 receiving snaps, Addison’s 68.6 PFF receiving grade ties for 41st, his 17.5% target rate ranks 44th, his 1.50 yards per route run figure ranks 37th and his 67.5% catch rate ranks 29th.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Addison an average 53.8 receiving matchup advantage rating against Cincinnati’s cornerback trio.

Among 65 cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter coverage snaps, Turner’s 53.9 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 58th. He ranks fifth in targeted rate (10.8%), 26th in catch rate allowed (59.5%) and tied for 25th in both yards allowed per coverage snap (0.97) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.1%). Fellow perimeter cornerback Chidobe Awuzie’s 74.2 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 15th. He ranks in the top 12 in forced incompletion rate (20.0%), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.85) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.8%).

Among 36 NFL defensive backs with at least 150 slot snaps, Mike Hilton’s 72.0 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 11th. He ranks 14th in catch rate allowed (69.2%) and 18th in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.13).

The unit is reinforced by free safety Jordan Battle whose 67.4 PFF coverage grade ranks 24th among 82 safeties with at least 100 free safety coverage snaps. He is one of just two qualifying safeties who have yet to allow a reception in primary coverage.

Addison is just a half-PPR WR4.