• Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (78.5 PFF receiving grade): He should have little issue lighting up the Carolina Panthers‘ secondary. 

• Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen (68.6 PFF receiving grade): He gets a dreamy game environment to trounce Detroit Lions cornerback Will Harris (66.9 PFF coverage grade).

• Tennessee Titans WR Robert Woods (66.8 PFF receiving grade): He cannot be trusted against Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell (72.8 PFF coverage grade).

Estimated Reading Time: 13 mins

Welcome to Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season. The sections below highlight five players to target and five to avoid with data gleaned from PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart.

5 WR/CB MATCHUPS TO TARGET

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB C.J. Henderson, Carolina Panthers

• Seattle sits at a fantasy-friendly 23.5-point implied team total as 3.5-point home favorites versus Carolina.
• PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Seattle’s offensive line an 11.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating over Carolina’s defensive line.
• Seattle wide receiver Tyler Lockett (78.5 PFF receiving grade) runs a 43.0% plurality of routes wide-right, with a nearly-there 41.0% slot rate in tow. 
• Carolina interim head coach Steve Wilks has asked 6-foot-1, 191-pound cornerback C.J. Henderson (46.4 PFF coverage grade) to shadow diminutive wide receivers in 2-of-3 games since No. 1 cornerback and wide-right starter Donte Jackson (55.2 PFF coverage grade) landed on injured reserve in Week 10.
• Henderson (36.0% rate) and cornerback Jaycee Horn (29.0% rate) now both take reps as the team’s wide-right cornerback, yet Henderson has logged a 55.0% coverage snap rate wide-left. 
• Henderson’s 5.0% 2021 slot coverage rate and 7.9% 2022 slot rate indicate he will not follow Lockett into the slot.
• Backup safety Myles Hartsfield (58.3 PFF coverage grade, ankle) handled slot duties for much of the year and is now healthy after Carolina’s Week 13 bye.
• Strong safety Jeremy Chinn (51.1 PFF coverage grade), who largely covers tight ends, will mix in. 
• Veteran T.J. Carrie (46.4 PFF coverage grade) flopped in slot coverage (100.0% catch rate allowed, 2.44 yards allowed per coverage snap). 
• PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Lockett an excellent 100.0 matchup advantage rating over Henderson and a 90.7 PFF matchup advantage rating over Chinn.
• The table below ranks Lockett’s wide-right receiving data in parentheses among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 wide-right targets and Lockett’s slot receiving data in parentheses among 36 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 slot targets. “No. 1” denotes the best performance.

• The table below ranks Henderson’s wide-right coverage data among 47 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps. The table below also ranks Hartsfield’s and Chinn’s slot coverage data among 90 NFL defensive backs with at least 50 slot coverage snaps.

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles vs. CB Nick McCloud, New York Giants

• Philadelphia received a robust 25.75-point implied team total as 7.0-point road favorites at New York.
• PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Philadelphia’s offensive line a 21.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating over New York, seventh-best on the week. 
• New York No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (71.5 PFF coverage grade, MCL sprain) is expected to miss his third straight game. Head coach Brian Daboll typically assigns his top cornerback shadow coverage against the opposition’s No. 1 wide receiver, which means Fabian Moreau (60.4 PFF coverage grade) should be busy trying to cover A.J. Brown (87.0 PFF receiving grade). 
• Nick McCloud (56.2 PFF coverage grade) replaced Jackson in Week 11.
• DeVonta Smith (75.1 PFF receiving grade, 78.0% out-wide rate) should spend much of his day lining up opposite McCloud along with a notable 22.0% of projected routes run against slot cornerback Darnay Holmes (49.1 PFF coverage grade).
• The table below ranks Smith’s out-wide receiving data among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 150 out-wide routes run and Smith’s slot receiving data among NFL wide receivers with at least 75 slot routes run.

• The table below ranks McCloud’s out-wide coverage data in parentheses among 86 NFL cornerbacks with at least 25 coverage snaps in Weeks 11-13. The table also ranks Holmes’ slot coverage data among 40 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps. 

WR D.J. Chark Jr., Detroit Lions vs. CB Cameron Dantzler, Minnesota Vikings

• Detroit versus Minnesota’s 51.5-point over/under is the second-highest of Week 14.
• PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Detroit a 3.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating over Minnesota. 
• Veteran downfield wide receiver D.J. Chark Jr. (ankle, 66.3 PFF receiving grade) returned to the lineup as a full-time player in Week 12.
• The table below reflects Chark’s pre-snap alignment rates on snaps when he ran a route, plus his respective PFF receiving grades, in Weeks 12 and 13. 

• Though Chark’s wide-left plurality indicates a prominent snap share against No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson (83.0 PFF coverage grade), Chark will face weak competition on a combined wide-right/slot-snap majority. 
• No. 2 perimeter cornerback Cameron Dantzler (high ankle sprain/injured reserve, 67.4 PFF coverage grade) is expected to play this week.
• The table below ranks Chark’s receiving data in parentheses among 54 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets in Weeks 12 and 13.

• The table below ranks Dantzler’s (67.4 PFF coverage grade) out-wide coverage data in parentheses among 76 NFL cornerbacks with at least 150 out-wide-coverage snaps and slot cornerback Chandon Sullivan’s (54.8 PFF coverage grade) slot coverage data in parentheses among 40 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps. 

WR Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. CB Will Harris, Detroit Lions

• Minnesota at Detroit features a mouthwatering 51.5-point over/under, second-highest on the week.
• PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Minnesota’s offensive line a dominant 33.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, also second-best on the week.
• No. 2 wide receiver Adam Thielen (68.6 PFF receiving grade) corralled six of his eight targets for 61 yards and one touchdown versus cornerback Amani Oruwariye’s (29.1 PFF coverage grade) shadow coverage in Week 3. The latter man has since been benched.
• Minnesota acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson (72.9 PFF receiving grade) ahead of Week 9. Since then, Thielen has logged a 30.6% slot route rate with a 44.5% wide-right plurality and a 24.9% wide-left rate.
• Thielen has maintained his ability to earn targets despite his age.
• Thielen’s helpful slot rate offers him access to either slot cornerback Will Harris (66.9 PFF coverage grade), who appeared on the injury report with a hip injury on Thursday, or backup slot cornerback Mike Hughes (50.4 PFF coverage grade). 
• The table below ranks Thielen’s slot receiving data in parentheses among 39 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 slot route snaps in Weeks 9-13.

• The table below ranks Harris' and Hughes’ slot coverage data in parentheses among 40 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps.

• No. 1 cornerback Jeffrey Okudah (illness, 62.4 PFF coverage grade) missed Wednesday's and Thursday’s practices. He shadowed No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson (89.1 PFF receiving grade) when these teams faced off in Week 3.
• No. 2 out-wide cornerback Jerry Jacobs (58.6 PFF coverage grade) has allowed a wide receiver-friendly 4.3% explosive pass play rate.

WR Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots vs. CB Byron Murphy Jr., Arizona Cardinals

• New England bears a helpful 22.5-point implied team total as 1.5-point road favorites at Arizona. 
• Starting slot receiver Jakobi Meyers (76.1 PFF receiving grade) was knocked out of New England’s Thanksgiving Day game (Week 12) and was replaced by veteran Nelson Agholor (63.4 PFF receiving grade), who rose to the occasion, producing a 25.8% targets per route run rate and a 2.10 yards per route run rate. 
• Meyers returned to play the following week but surprisingly entered the NFL concussion protocol post-Week 13 on Thursday, Dec. 8, which tees up Agholor to handle the starting slot role while Meyers recovers. Wide receivers average 1.7 games missed due to concussions, according to Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index.
• Arizona is expected to return slot cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (back injury, 63.9 PFF slot coverage grade) this week. Murphy is backed up by slot defensive back/inside linebacker Isaiah Simmons (64.8 PFF coverage grade).
• Update: Contrary to initial reports, Murphy Jr. is trending toward missing Week 14 after failing to practice on both Thursday and Friday. Perimeter cornerback Antonio Hamilton (45.3 PFF slot-coverage grade) is likely to handle co-slot duties with Simmons, with Trayvon Mullen (47.2 PFF coverage grade) coming off the bench to replace Hamilton, whi owns an exceptionally friendly 2.24 yards allowed per slot-coverage snap rate.
• The table below ranks Agholor’s slot receiving data in parentheses among 80 NFL wide receivers with at least 70 slot route snaps this year.

• The table below ranks Murphy and Simmons’ slot coverage data among 40 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps.

5 WR/CB MATCHUPS TO AVOID

WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. CB Sauce Gardner, New York Jets

• Buffalo versus New York garnered just a 43.0-point over/under.
• No. 2 wide receiver Gabriel Davis (65.0 PFF receiving grade), and his 89.0% out-wide rate, projects to face Nos. 1 and 2 cornerback Sauce Gardner (86.0 PFF coverage grade) and D.J. Reed Jr. (76.7 PFF coverage grade) on a combined 33-of-42 routes this weekend.  
• Buffalo’s offensive line earned a -29.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating against New York, second-worst on the week.
• Davis’ downfield role (16.3 average depth of target) can lead to explosive plays against any defense, but his inability to consistently earn targets is a problem. New York held him to just two catches on five targets for 33 scoreless yards in Week 9.
• The table below ranks Davis’ receiving data in parentheses among 57 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets. 

• The table below ranks New York’s out-wide coverage data in parentheses among NFL teams.

WR Kendall Hinton, Denver Broncos vs. CB L’Jarius Sneed, Kansas City Chiefs

• Denver offers a measly 17.25-point implied team total versus Kansas City.
• Third-year wide receiver Kendall Hinton (61.9 PFF receiving grade) entered the Broncos' starting lineup in Week 10. The table below reflects his routes-run pre-snap alignment and corresponding PFF receiving grades since then.

• Hinton’s slot-heavy alignment matches him up with the vaunted L’Jarius Sneed (80.6 PFF coverage grade).
• PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Hinton a below-average 30.7 matchup advantage rating versus Sneed.
• The table below ranks Hinton’s slot receiving data in parentheses among 71 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 slot receiving snaps in Weeks 10-13.

• The table below ranks Sneed’s slot coverage data in parentheses among 40 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps. 

• Hinton still has a tall task ahead even if Jerry Jeudy’s (ankle, 71.2 PFF receiving grade) presence pushes Hinton to the outside.
• First-round rookie and wide-right cornerback Trent McDuffie (79.7 PFF coverage grade) is limiting opposing wide receivers to a 54.5% catch rate and a third-ranked 0.55 yards allowed per coverage snap (among NFL cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps).
• Joshua Williams (65.1 PFF coverage grade) allows a 70.6% catch rate alongside a 1.79 yards allowed per coverage snap rate.

WR Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans vs. CB Tyson Campbell, Jacksonville Jaguars

• Jacksonville at Tennessee garnered just a 41.0-point over/under.
• Veteran wide receiver Robert Woods (66.8 PFF receiving grade) is set to operate as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver with breakout rookie Treylon Burks (74.6 PFF receiving grade) likely to miss Week 14 in the league’s concussion protocol. 
• As mentioned above, wide receivers average 1.7 games missed due to concussions. 
• Jacksonville has asked No. 1 cornerback Tyson Campbell (72.8 PFF coverage grade) to shadow No. 1 wide receivers in four games this year. Regardless of whether head coach Doug Pederson deems Woods worthy of shadow treatment, Woods’ 43.0% wide-right plurality falls directly into Campbell’s 81.0% wide-right domain. 
• Woods has run 31.0% of his routes from the slot and 24.0% wide-left.
• The table below ranks Woods’ lackluster receiving data among 57 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets.

• The table below ranks Campbell’s coverage data among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps.

• Slot cornerback Darious Williams (52.6 PFF coverage grade) has produced a respectable 1.17 yards allowed per coverage snap.

WR David Bell, Cleveland Browns vs. CB Mike Hilton, Cincinnati Bengals

• Cleveland received a 20.5-point implied team total as 5.5-point road underdogs at Cincinnati.
• Third-round rookie David Bell (54.6 PFF receiving grade) has successfully taken over Cleveland’s starting slot receiver role, logging a 75.0% slot route rate, but has struggled to produce.
• Hopes of a ceiling outcome for Bell dissipated when quarterback Deshaun Watson (48.3 PFF passing grade) flopped in his Week 13 return against a far softer Houston Texans defense. Cincinnati’s 13th-ranked coverage unit (71.0 PFF coverage grade) and 16th-ranked pass rush (70.4 PFF pass-rush grade) will be a problem for him.
• PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Bell a poor 22.4 matchup advantage rating versus slot cornerback Mike Hilton (66.9 PFF coverage grade).
• The table below ranks Bell’s slot-receiving data in parentheses among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 150 slot-route snaps.

• The table below ranks Hilton’s (66.9 PFF coverage grade) slot coverage data in parentheses among 40 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps. 

WR Steven Sims, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. S Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens

• Pittsburgh received a paltry 19.25-point implied team total versus Baltimore.
• Pittsburgh initially installed special teams player Gunner Olszewski (56.7 PFF receiving grade) as its starting slot receiver after trading away Chase Claypool (62.9 PFF receiving grade), but fourth-year journeyman Steven Sims (46.2 PFF receiving grade) stole the job in Week 12. 
• Sims (76.9% slot route rate in Weeks 12 and 13) will face off against breakout rookie slot safety Kyle Hamilton (83.9 PFF coverage grade).
• The table below ranks Sims’ slot-receiving data among 46 NFL wide receivers with at least 20 slot-route snaps in Weeks 12 and 13.

• The table below ranks Hamilton’s slot coverage data among 67 NFL defensive backs with at least 75 slot coverage snaps.