• WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts vs. CB Roger McCreary, Tennessee Titans: Downs should expect another high-volume workload with week-winning potential.

• WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals vs. CB Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers: Brown is likely to be shadowed by Porter, who has shut down star wideouts in recent weeks.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

Knowing when an NFL wide receiver has an advantageous or disadvantageous cornerback matchup is critical for fantasy football start-sit decisions. This article details six players to be started with confidence or avoided at all costs, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart for Week 13.

3 Wide Receivers to Target

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts vs. CB Roger McCreary, Tennessee Titans

Breakout rookie slot receiver Josh Downs (75.1 PFF receiving grade) takes his turn against Tennessee’s vulnerable slot coverage unit this week, led by cornerback Roger McCreary (63.9 PFF coverage grade). Downs is a half-points-per-reception WR2.

FanDuel implies Indianapolis to score 22.0 points as 1.5-point road favorites.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives the Colts an 18.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 13’s third-best mark. The matchup ensures clean pockets for quarterback Gardner Minshew (53.4 PFF passing grade).

Indianapolis emerged from its Week 11 bye prioritizing both Downs and No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (75.8 PFF receiving grade). As detailed in Week 13’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” both players earned double-digit first-read targets this past week, finishing in the top three among wide receivers for the slate.

Downs should expect another high-volume workload with week-winning potential. Tennessee’s defense ranks 24th in success rate allowed (44.2%), 25th in expected points added per play (0.010, a means of measuring explosiveness), 29th in scoring drive allowed rate (41.1%) and dead last in average offensive plays per drive against (6.3).

Downs ran routes lined up in the slot at a 69.4% rate in Week 12 while logging a 13.9% wide-left rate and a 16.7% wide-right rate.

The table below ranks in parentheses Downs’ slot-receiving data among 37 NFL slot receivers with at least 125 slot snaps.

Tennessee safety Amani Hooker (57.4 PFF coverage grade, 87 slot coverage snaps) partially functions as McCreary’s (112 slot coverage snaps) sidekick.

The table below ranks in parentheses McCreary's and Hooker’s slot coverage data among 37 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 65 slot coverage snaps.

Tennessee safety/slot defensive back Elijah Molden (48.4 PFF coverage grade, 46 slot coverage snaps) helpfully chips in with a slot receiver-friendly 85.7% catch rate.

Downs’ 30.6% pre-snap alignment perimeter rate is an increase of 14 percentage points from his pre-bye usage, which bodes very well for his fantasy potential. Among 124 NFL perimeter wide receivers with at least 55 perimeter receiving snaps, Downs’ 2.34 yards per route run ties for 19th and his 6.6 yards after the catch per reception ranks ninth.

Tennessee’s perimeter coverage unit ranks 30th in catch rate allowed (70.2%), 20th in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.52) and tied for 19th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (13.4%).

Downs is quietly a half-PPR WR2.

WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys vs. CB Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks

Wide receiver Brandin Cooks (70.0 PFF receiving grade) has assumed No. 2 pass-catcher duties in Dallas over the past three weeks, logging a 47.8% pre-snap slot plurality rate. That usage primes Cooks for a fruitful day against cornerback Devon Witherspoon (83.5 PFF coverage grade) and defensive back Jamal Adams (64.7 PFF coverage grade) in Week 13. Cooks is startable as a half-PPR WR2.

FanDuel implies Dallas to score 28.25 points.

Dallas’ powerhouse offense ranks seventh in success rate (45.5%) and second in EPA per play (0.116), and quarterback Dak Prescott ranks second in both big-time-throw rate (6.9%) and turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%).

Cooks is shredding slot coverage units in his newly acquired role. Among 31 NFL slot receivers with at least 35 slot snaps in Weeks 10-12, he ranks first in yards per route run (5.10), is tied for first in explosive pass plays (six) and ranks sixth in target rate (26.2%).

Among 76 NFL defensive backs with at least 35 slot coverage snaps, Witherspoon’s 63.2% catch rate allowed, 1.19 yards allowed per coverage snap and 2.1% explosive pass plays allowed rate all rank between 23rd and 27th. Adams offers little assistance, ranking 66th in catch rate allowed (87.5%), 38th in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.53) and tied for 33rd in explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.8%).

Cooks is a half-PPR WR2 with explosive upside.

WR Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders vs. CB Kader Kohou, Miami Dolphins

Slot receiver Curtis Samuel (73.2 PFF receiving grade) gets a winnable matchup against slot cornerback Kader Kohou (64.6 PFF coverage grade) and backup Nik Needham (69.1 PFF coverage grade) in Week 13. Samuel is a half-PPR WR3.

As detailed in Week 13’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” this game profiles as a high-volume, high-scoring affair. The contest’s 49.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 13’s highest game total, and Miami’s defense ranks 22nd in success rate allowed (43.8%).

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Washington a -19.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, but Miami’s pass rush lost edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (70.3 PFF pass-rush grade) to a season-ending Achilles tendon rupture last week, reducing their ability to pressure Washington quarterback Sam Howell (61.7 PFF passing grade).

Samuel’s 20.7% target rate accurately reflects his status as Washington’s most efficient target earner, and his 4.3 yards after the catch per reception likewise showcases his post-catch elusiveness.

Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy features Samuel as a surehanded short-area pass catcher with a 6.9-yard average depth of target. Samuel’s exceptional 78.3% catch rate ranks first among 68 NFL wide receivers with at least 250 receiving snaps.

The latter statistic bodes particularly well for Samuel’s prospects against Kohou, whose 88.5% catch rate allowed to slot receivers ranks 30th among 31 cornerbacks with at least 65 slot coverage snaps. Kohou relies on his short-area quickness (1.52-second 10-yard split) to quickly close on ball carriers. This strategy is unlikely to bear fruit against the electric Samuel, whose 4.31-second 40-yard-dash long speed far exceeds Kohou’s 4.50-second pro day time.

The matchup offers Samuel increased potential for explosive receptions. Kohou’s middling 3.3% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 13th, and Needham surrendered explosive pass plays to opposing wide receivers at a 4.8% rate prior to rupturing his Achilles tendon in October of 2022.

Samuel runs routes lined up wide-right pre-snap at an 11.7% rate, allowing him to avoid Dolphins right cornerback Jalen Ramsey (88.2 PFF coverage grade, 96.0% right-side rate) when transitioning to the outside. Samuel efficiently averages 2.12 yards per route run when lined up wide-right, and left cornerback Xavien Howard’s (55.5 PFF coverage grade) 68.6% catch rate allowed to wide-right wide receivers ranks 27th among 32 left NFL cornerbacks with at least 75 left-side coverage snaps.

Miami safety Jevon Holland (90.7 PFF coverage grade) is notably listed with injuries to both knees on the Week 13 injury report.

Samuel is a half-PPR WR3.

3 Wide Receivers to Avoid

WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals vs. CB Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers

Wide receiver Marquise Brown (70.6 PFF receiving grade) faces an impending shadow-coverage matchup against breakout rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (76.4 PFF coverage grade). Brown’s downfield profile, big-play potential and part-time slot role keep him viable in fantasy — but only as a highly volatile WR3.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin tasked Porter with shadowing the opposition’s No. 1 wide receiver in three of the Steelers' past four games, only pausing the practice against the Green Bay Packers’ deep wide receiver corps in Week 10.

Brown runs just 19.8% of routes lined up in the slot. Porter mans the slot at a 6.9% rate in non-shadow-coverage games. The rate increases to just 9.5% in shadow-coverage games. Brown will likely evade Porter on roughly 10.0% of receiving snaps, far too small of a rate to bank on.

Porter’s coverage assignments include Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (79.6 PFF receiving grade), Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper (73.6 PFF receiving grade) and Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (86.1 PFF receiving grade). The three wide receivers averaged just two receptions, 26.3 receiving yards and zero touchdowns on 3.3 targets against Porter. All three failed to clear 40 receiving yards.

Both Hopkins (15.6-yard average depth of target) and Cooper (13.8-yard average depth of target) primarily function as downfield pass catchers, which bodes poorly for Brown (12.8-yard average depth of target), who offers a similar field-depth profile.

Brown failed to separate well with quarterback Kyler Murray (59.7 PFF passing grade) under center in Weeks 10-12, producing just a 16.2% target rate during that span. Brown is also dealing with a heel injury that only serves to limit his route-running ability.

Brown is an extremely risky WR3.

WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CB Troy Hill, Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay wide receiver Chris Godwin (76.9 PFF coverage grade) is lining up in the slot at an increasing rate, tallying a 40.2% pre-snap alignment average in Weeks 10-12 after operating on the interior on just 32.2% of routes run in the nine weeks prior. The increased slot usage signals a frequent one-on-one matchup with Carolina slot cornerback Troy Hill (76.4 PFF coverage grade). Carolina’s perimeter unit is also likely returning No. 1 cornerback Jaycee Horn (68.0 PFF coverage grade), who spent nine weeks on injured reserve with a hamstring strain. Godwin is just a low-floor half-PPR flex option in Week 13.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Godwin a below-average 39.1 receiving matchup advantage rating against Hill and projects the two to face each other on 19 of 35 snaps.

Godwin is averaging just a 9.5% target rate and 1.02 yards per route run in the slot over the past three weeks while producing just one finish among the top 36 wide receivers — WR36 in Week 10.

Hill ranks in the top 12 in both catch rate allowed (66.7%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (1.51) among 31 NFL cornerbacks with at least 65 slot coverage snaps.

Horn’s return to the perimeter cannot be overstated. Among 63 NFL cornerbacks with at least 395 coverage snaps in 2022, his 0.73 yards allowed per coverage snap figure ranks fifth. Cornerback Donte Jackson (65.7 PFF coverage grade) serves as a capable No. 2.

Godwin faces stiff competition at all three pre-snap alignment spots and cannot be started as a top-36 half-PPR wide receiver.

WR Robert Woods, Houston Texans vs. CB Ja’Quan McMillian, Denver Broncos

Slot receiver Robert Woods (63.7 PFF receiving grade) faces a stiff test against slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian (71.1 PFF coverage grade). Woods can only be started as a shaky half-PPR WR4 in Week 13.

Although Houston No. 2 wide receiver Tank Dell (83.6 PFF receiving grade, calf strain) may sit in Week 13, wide receiver Noah Brown (86.4 PFF receiving grade, knee contusion) is expected to return after a two-game absence, reinforcing Woods’ stiff target competition.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Woods a poor 22.4 receiving matchup advantage rating against McMillian.

Woods’ 3.3 yards after the catch per reception when lined up in the slot ties for 25th among 34 NFL slot receivers with at least 130 slot-receiving snaps and his 62.5% catch rate ranks 27th. The 31-year-old now functions as an unreliable possession receiver. Among 31 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 65 slot coverage snaps, McMillian ranks first in catch rate allowed (52.0%) and eighth in interception per coverage target rate (4.0%).

Broncos stud perimeter cornerbacks Pat Surtain II (66.8 PFF coverage grade) and Fabian Moreau (69.0 PFF coverage grade) offer Woods little respite, and now-healthy safety Justin Simmons (56.2 PFF coverage grade) prowls the deep part of the field.

Woods is not startable as a half-PPR WR3 this week.