• Where there’s a Wonnum there’s a way: The Carolina Panthers' new edge rusher D.J. Wonnum has been a volume-dependant IDP scorer for multiple years now, and following the NFL draft, that volume doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

• Reasons to be optimistic about Marcus Davenport (again): I’m ready to be hurt again, but at least this time it will cost less. Davenport projects to start in Detroit after the team didn’t address the position in the draft.

• Daiyan Henley’s time that never came is already over: Jim Harbaugh spending a Day 2 pick on his Michigan Wolverine Junior Colson all but ends Henley's potential Year 2 breakout.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

With the excitement and optimism around the NFL draft prospects, there are bound to be NFL veterans who are affected by the incoming young talent looking to make their mark in the league. There are sure to be several NFL veterans who will lose snaps to these rookies, hurting their fantasy value as a result. In a similar vein, there are plenty of NFL veterans who may not be viewed as ideal NFL starters that dodged their respective teams taking a player to replace them in this year’s draft, helping their fantasy stock. 

This list takes a look at 9 defensive players that won and lost fantasy value after the NFL draft so fantasy managers can adjust expectations accordingly.

WINNERS

EDGE D.J. Wonnum, Carolina Panthers

Wonnum has made a career out of being a necessity for his team thanks to the thin depth charts he’s been a part of. Whether it’s due to injury or just a lack of options, Wonnum is almost certainly going to find his way onto the field as a regular in the rotation. This year, he changes teams to an edge-needy Carolina Panthers, who just traded away star pass-rusher Brian Burns, Wonnum continues to dodge bullets in order to stay in starter consideration, as the Panthers opted not to address the position at all during the NFL draft. The team did bring in Jadeveon Clowney and K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency, but Clowney is the only real starter with Wonnum now set to start next to him.

Despite being relatively productive, mostly due to volume alone, Wonnum has never posted a seasonal pass rush grade above 57.8 (2021) for his NFL career. He has consistently exceeded expectations based on his below-average pass rush grades, pressure, and win rates over the years. Thankfully, for IDP managers rostering him, he is once again set for a volume-heavy role to hopefully continue producing at a high rate, despite the truly middling underlying numbers.

EDGE Marcus Davenport, Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions could have easily been in the market for another starting edge rusher to play next to Aidan Hutchinson in this year’s draft, but instead, they didn’t address the position at all through seven rounds. This could speak to the team’s comfort level with Davenport starting the year as their presumed second-best option, despite his struggles to stay on the field in recent years.

Davenport has had success as a good NFL pass-rusher when he’s on the field, but unfortunately, he’s often injured and can’t build on those encouraging metrics. He’s played over 500 defensive snaps just once in his six-year NFL career, though, staying healthy in Detroit could help him surpass that number in 2024 and become IDP-relevant again.

LB Tyrel Dodson, Seattle Seahawks

Dodson got one of the best landing spots in free agency this offseason after Seattle moved on from both Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks, the team brought in Jerome Baker and Dodson to potentially start in 2024. After not spending a draft pick on a linebacker until the fourth round (Tyrice Knight), Dodson should be in the clear for playing time, based on historical usage for Day 3 linebackers.

#FFIDP – AVERAGE LINEBACKER SNAPS/SEASON SINCE 2020 BASED ON DRAFT CAPITAL (chart):

+ HOW MANY HIT 500+ SNAPS IN A SEASON (🔽):

YEAR 1
Day 1/Round 1: 7 of 10 (70%)
Day 2/Rounds 2 & 3: 4 of 21 (19%)
Day 3/Rounds 4-7+UDFA: 2 of 67 (3%)

YEAR 2
Day 1: 8 of 10 (80%)
Day 2: 10 of 27… pic.twitter.com/mkwPpd86VU

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 7, 2024

Dodson is a former UDFA but had an opportunity to play significant snaps this past season for the Buffalo Bills. He delivered some of the best linebacker grades in the league. His 89.5 overall grade ranked third among linebackers while his 82.6 run-defense grade ranked 11th and his 86.8 coverage grade ranked fifth. He should be in a great spot to begin the year as one of the team’s starters at the position and over the rookie.

LB K.J. Britt, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Whether the winner here ends up being Britt or SirVocea Dennis, the Buccaneers could have easily added to the linebacker room in the draft after moving on from Devin White. However, they chose to stand pat with what they have. Britt is the most likely candidate to step into a starting role as he has more NFL experience than Dennis, but it could be a true camp battle to see who comes away with it. It likely would have taken a Day 2 pick to push one of these guys for a starting job anyway, but it becomes a much easier path to snaps for both of them with the position being skipped over altogether by Tampa Bay.

LB Mack Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had 12 picks in this year’s draft and not one was spent on an off-ball linebacker despite that being a significant weak point on the team last year once Kyzir White got hurt. White is still on the roster and set to lead that group once again, but the second linebacker spot could very well belong to Wilson, who has over 2,000 snaps of experience in the NFL as a former fifth-round pick. His competition right now consists of Krys Barnes – a 2020 UDFA who has never earned higher than a 60.1 defensive grade — and Owen Pappoe — a 2023 fifth-round pick with just 114 defensive snaps to his name. This is a thin depth chart, to say the least, but Wilson appears to be the clear favorite for secondary linebacker snaps at the moment.

S Jordan Howden, New Orleans Saints

Howden is a 2023 fifth-round pick who was put in position to start as a rookie with Marcus Maye dealing with suspensions and injuries. While his draft capital and inexperience made him a strong replacement candidate this offseason, Howden dodged bullets in free agency and the NFL draft with the team not addressing the position, despite also releasing Maye in March.

With no concerning competition on the depth chart, Howden should walk into a starting role in 2024 and deliver volume-based production as a primarily deep safety. He’ll be an IDP option in deeper leagues where just being a starting safety is enough to be on a fantasy roster.

LOSERS

LB Daiyan Henley, Los Angeles Chargers

While I’ll typically not vouch for a third-round rookie to come in and start right away, it’s really hard to make that argument when Jim Harbaugh chose to use his third-round pick on his Michigan middle linebacker Junior Colson. Given the new regime in Los Angeles in addition to Colson’s familiarity and success with Harbaugh, Henley isn’t likely to be considered a favorite to emerge as a starter alongside the more likely Denzel Perryman and Colson.

EDGE Michael Hoecht, Los Angeles Rams

Hoecht has had his IDP moments, specifically in 2023 when he played a ton of snaps (960) that allowed him to be productive by default – not unlike a post-draft winner, D.J. Wonnum. However, the Rams did spend significant capital to get a starting edge defender when they selected Jared Verse with the 19th overall pick. Verse has the pedigree to step in right away as a starter which more than likely causes a significant decrease in snaps for Hoecht, who wasn’t effective enough as a pass rusher to believe he’ll be worthy of a roster spot in most IDP leagues now, with the assumption that Byron Young will also play over him.

EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Former first-round pick, Tryon-Shoyinka, already had his workload decline in 2023 thanks to the emerging third-round pick of that year, Yaya Diaby. It seemed like Tryon-Shoyinka would get another crack at a volume-heavy role with Shaquil Barrett departing in free agency, but the team chose to spend a second-round pick on Chris Braswell out of Alabama. With high capital spent, it appears that Tryon-Shoyinka’s days are numbered in Tampa Bay, as he’s struggled to be effective when on the field, and doesn’t provide a whole lot of optimism for IDP.

S Jalen Mills/Dane Belton, New York Giants

There was a path for either one of these two safeties to absorb Xavier McKinney’s role and snaps in this defense, which resulted in decent fantasy production for the now-Green Bay Packer. Unfortunately for those holding onto shares of either player, that potential dropped significantly when the team drafted Tyler Nubin as the first safety off the board in the NFL Draft.

Nubin was primarily a deep safety during his time with Minnesota in college, though spent about 29% of his career defensive snaps in the box, which was close to what McKinney provided last year in New York (34%), compared to Jason Pinnock (16%) – the other likely candidate. Nubin is also now the biggest (but only slightly) of the Giants safeties mentioned here, making him a more likely candidate to hold up closer to the line of scrimmage, should that be a tie-breaker for the team. Either way, Nubin should see starting snaps right away as a rookie which essentially ends any IDP value for Mills and/or Belton.