Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming and underperforming based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.
- Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
- Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
- Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
- Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
- Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
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WEEK 17 TAKEAWAYS
Upgrades
QB – Joe Burrow and the Bengals have utilized a pass-heavy attack in the last two games, and the second-year quarterback has back-to-back QB1 finishes. Cincinnati has one of the top receiving corps in the NFL, and Burrow is poised to make noise in the playoffs. He is a mid-range QB1.
RB – Devin Singletary has dominated the Bills backfield in the last three games, with 93%, 68% and 80% of the snaps. He is playing on early downs and passing downs. The third-year back has three top-12 finishes in as many games and is a low-end RB1.
RB – Elijah Mitchell returned to action and handled most of the early-down work for San Francisco. He continues to give way to Deebo Samuel and JaMycal Hasty on passing downs, but Mitchell is a low-end RB1, thanks to the second-most run-centric attack in the NFL.
WR – Mike Evans currently sits at WR12 for the season on only 16% of the Buccaneers' targets. With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown gone, he could push toward 30% moving forward. He is a mid-range WR1.
WR – CeeDee Lamb‘s routes jumped back over the 90% threshold with Michael Gallup knocked from the game with a torn ACL. Lamb will now stay on the field in 12 personnel groupings and is a top-12 option.
WR – Zay Jones has bogarted 25%, 29% and 31% of the Raiders' targets over the last three contests. Las Vegas could get Darren Waller back this week, though, which could curtail the mini-breakout for Jones. He is a low-end WR3.
TE – Rob Gronkowski, like Evans, is in for more work due to the Buccaneers' depleted receiving corps. The veteran tight end led the team in targets (21%) in Week 17 against the Jets.
See the team summaries below for more upgrade news.
Data notes and acronyms:
- 1st/2nd = first and second downs
- LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
- SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
- i5 = inside the five-yard line
2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense) - Close = score within three points
- Lead = leading by four points or more
- Trail = trailing by four points or more
- Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
- Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
- ADOT = average depth of target
- Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
- TTT = average time to throw
- PA = play action
- PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
- Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
- YPRR = yards per route run
- TPRR = targets per route run
- EZ = end zone
- TOP = time of possession
- Pass vs. Run Splits = based on the percentage of time a team throws or passes
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Team Ranks
| Pace & TOP | Pass vs Run Splits | Pass by Game Script | Run by Game Script | |||||||
| Plays per Game | Plays per Minute | Time of Possession | Pass Rank | Run Rank | Trail Pass | Close Pass | Lead Pass | Trail Run | Close Run | Lead Run |
| 10 | 17 | 8 | 24 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 14 |
- Pass-volume environment: Average
- Run-volume environment: Good
- Pass/run tendencies: Balanced
Quarterbacks
| Player | Week | ADOT | Adjusted Comp % | TTT | YPA | Play Action | Designed Rush Att | Scrambles | Sacks | i5 Att | PPR Rank |
| Kyler Murray | 15 | 7.6 | 66% | 2.62 | 6.3 | 21% | 20% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 19 |
| 16 | 7.5 | 72% | 2.48 | 5.9 | 16% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 6 | |
| 17 | 8.6 | 76% | 2.64 | 6.9 | 27% | 23% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5 | |
| YTD | 8.4 | 77% | 2.76 | 8.0 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 20% | 11 |
Note: Murray is handling 19% of the designed rushing attempts and has topped 20% in two of his last three games. His legs will likely play a significant factor heading into the playoffs.
Running backs
| Player | Week | Snaps | Rush Att | Routes | Targets | TPRR | SDD Snaps | i5 Att | LDD Snaps | 2MIN Snaps | PPR Rank |
| Chase Edmonds | 15 | 39% | 30% | 25% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% | 49 |
| 16 | 92% | 76% | 73% | 23% | 28% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 95% | 6 | |
| 17 | 79% | 60% | 66% | 17% | 21% | 50% | 100% | 88% | 100% | 25 | |
| YTD | 43% | 26% | 40% | 10% | 20% | 27% | 20% | 54% | 67% | 30 | |
| James Conner | 15 | 44% | 40% | 33% | 4% | 12% | 50% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 30 |
| 16 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 17 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| YTD | 50% | 42% | 34% | 6% | 16% | 62% | 56% | 37% | 32% | 9 | |
| Jonathan Ward | 15 | 15% | 5% | 15% | 2% | 13% | 50% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 64 |
| 16 | 15% | 5% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 9% | 5% | 83 | |
| 17 | 12% | 7% | 15% | 3% | 17% | 50% | 0% | 6% | 11% | 53 | |
| YTD | 4% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 10% | 11% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 126 |
Note: Conner didn't play in Week 17, opening the door for Edmonds to dominate touches again. Once Conner is fully healthy, he should regain his role as the primary ball carrier, but Edmonds will likely dominate the passing-game work.
Receivers and tight ends
| Player | Pos | Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR Rank |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 15 | 96% | 23% | 26% | 8.8 | 33% | 25% | 15% | 33% | 5 |
| 16 | 93% | 23% | 25% | 9.0 | 31% | 0% | 20% | 10% | 32 | ||
| 17 | 91% | 21% | 23% | 13.0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 26 | ||
| YTD | 81% | 20% | 19% | 11.5 | 29% | 20% | 15% | 29% | 23 | ||
| A.J. Green | WR | 15 | 69% | 22% | 17% | 10.1 | 25% | 50% | 31% | 13% | 31 |
| 16 | 86% | 8% | 8% | 16.7 | 17% | 0% | 20% | 33% | 80 | ||
| 17 | 87% | 14% | 14% | 19.4 | 31% | 0% | 9% | 60% | 39 | ||
| YTD | 78% | 17% | 16% | 13.2 | 27% | 24% | 18% | 32% | 38 | ||
| Antoine Wesley | WR | 15 | 84% | 16% | 15% | 7.4 | 16% | 25% | 38% | 0% | 65 |
| 16 | 80% | 12% | 10% | 14.5 | 20% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 40 | ||
| 17 | 49% | 23% | 14% | 11.8 | 19% | 67% | 45% | 20% | 15 | ||
| YTD | 35% | 13% | 5% | 11.0 | 7% | 12% | 7% | 30% | 112 | ||
| Greg Dortch | WR | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | ||
| 17 | 32% | 8% | 3% | -4.0 | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 72 | ||
| YTD | 2% | 8% | 0% | -4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 200 | ||
| Rondale Moore | TE | 15 | 29% | 19% | 7% | -3.7 | -3% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 74 |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | ||
| 17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | ||
| YTD | 42% | 24% | 12% | 1.2 | 2% | 2% | 11% | 28% | 59 | ||
| Zach Ertz | TE | 15 | 91% | 23% | 24% | 9.0 | 30% | 0% | 8% | 27% | 8 |
| 16 | 98% | 31% | 33% | 6.6 | 30% | 33% | 60% | 8% | 5 | ||
| 17 | 91% | 24% | 26% | 5.6 | 16% | 33% | 18% | 22% | 9 | ||
| YTD | 53% | 21% | 14% | 6.9 | 12% | 12% | 19% | 27% | 6 |
Upgrade: Ertz's routes per dropback (91%, 98%, 91%) are in another stratosphere since the loss of DeAndre Hopkins. The veteran tight end finishes the season with three consecutive top-10 finishes and could provide value in playoff formats if the Cardinals can advance past the first round.
He is second on the Cardinals (24%) to Hopkins in TPRR against man coverage.
Target distribution and TPRR vs. man and zone coverage:
| Name | POS | Rts | Man Tgt% | Zone Tgt% | Man TPRR | Zone TPRR |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 497 | 19% | 18% | 19% | 20% |
| A.J. Green | WR | 479 | 17% | 14% | 17% | 17% |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 477 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 19% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 317 | 14% | 10% | 27% | 17% |
| Rondale Moore | WR | 262 | 6% | 13% | 19% | 24% |
| Chase Edmonds | HB | 248 | 8% | 10% | 18% | 20% |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | 216 | 6% | 5% | 13% | 12% |
| James Conner | HB | 208 | 3% | 7% | 13% | 17% |
ATLANTA FALCONS
Team Ranks
| Pace & TOP | Pass vs Run Splits | Pass by Game Script | Run by Game Script | |||||||
| Plays per Game | Plays per Minute | Time of Possession | Pass Rank | Run Rank | Trail Pass | Close Pass | Lead Pass | Trail Run | Close Run | Lead Run |
| 30 | 21 | 27 | 13 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 26 |
- Pass-volume environment: Below average
- Run-volume environment: Below average
- Pass/run tendencies: Balanced
The Falcons are averaging the fewest regulation plays per game since Week 12.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Week | ADOT | Adjusted Comp % | TTT | YPA | Play Action | Designed Rush Att | Scrambles | Sacks | i5 Att | PPR Rank |
| Matt Ryan | 15 | 10.1 | 75% | 3.09 | 7.4 | 38% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 0% | 16 |
| 16 | 8.0 | 90% | 2.67 | 9.0 | 30% | 21% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 21 | |
| 17 | 9.5 | 67% | 3.33 | 8.6 | 33% | 0% | 7% | 17% | 0% | 27 | |
| YTD | 7.6 | 77% | 2.69 | 7.1 | 29% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 18 |
Rest of season: low-end QB2
Running backs
| Player | Week | Snaps | Rush Att | Routes | Targets | TPRR | SDD Snaps | i5 Att | LDD Snaps | 2MIN Snaps | PPR Rank |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 15 | 61% | 58% | 58% | 7% | 9% | 88% | 100% | 22% | 100% | 56 |
| 16 | 57% | 37% | 44% | 5% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 71% | – | 33 | |
| 17 | 51% | 45% | 39% | 10% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 22% | 0% | 35 | |
| YTD | 46% | 40% | 40% | 12% | 26% | 49% | 45% | 36% | 31% | 7 | |
| Mike Davis | 15 | 46% | 32% | 45% | 4% | 6% | 25% | 0% | 78% | 30% | 66 |
| 16 | 57% | 37% | 41% | 5% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 71% | – | 47 | |
| 17 | 51% | 40% | 39% | 10% | 17% | 0% | 100% | 89% | 71% | 26 | |
| YTD | 57% | 35% | 51% | 10% | 17% | 47% | 27% | 76% | 67% | 35 |
Note: Patterson sees over half of the snaps and leads the team in rushing attempts, but his explosive plays and routes are down. The veteran phenom is an unrestricted free agent heading into his age-31 season. Considering his track record before joining forces with Arthur Smith, resigning with the Falcons would be a positive for his 2022 outlook.
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