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Fantasy Football: Using catchable target rate to examine expected fantasy points for wide receivers

2Y41GH2 Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) warms up before an NFL football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes


A lot goes into every player’s fantasy production each season. Still, for pass catchers specifically, one of the most important aspects of their ability to produce fantasy points relies on their quarterbacks and their accuracy.

Focusing entirely on targets that PFF has deemed catchable, this article will look at which players benefited the most and least for fantasy (Weeks 1-17) from catchable targets while utilizing each player’s own receiving metrics to project how much each player performed above and below expectations using the average catchable target rate for wide receivers in the NFL this past season.

The formula to determine each player’s expected fantasy points is as follows:

  • Expected catchable targets = Positional average catchable target rate (72%) X actual targets.
  • Expected fantasy points = PPR scoring for adjusted receptions, adjusted yards, and adjusted touchdowns.
    • Adjusted receptions = Player’s catchable reception rate X expected catchable targets.
    • Adjusted yards = Player’s yards per reception X adjusted receptions.
    • Adjusted touchdowns = Player’s TD per catchable target rate X expected catchable targets.
  • Snap threshold to be included = Minimum of 100 routes and 10 targets.

It’s worth noting that wide receiver catchable target rate has mostly proven not to be a stable metric in recent years (average correlation of just 0.2811 since 2022), so part of the reason this exercise can be valuable would be to add the context of potential positive or negative regression for some of the top over and under-achievers next season.


THE TOP FANTASY PERFORMERS OVER EXPECTATIONS


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