Fantasy football is often a game or reactions and overreactions. While it seems too early to jump to conclusions, there are definitely some situations that are coming to light.
Two weeks into the season and some interesting trends are starting to develop. Here are some ones that you should take note of:
NFL scoring is down
Early on in the year and there are plenty of players that are disappointing owners, but all the blame shouldn’t fall on individual players as there are entire offenses around the league that have struggled to put points on the scoreboard. The current average 40.3 points per game is the lowest figure the league has seen over the first two weeks of a season in over 20 years.
In 31 games played so far in 2017, teams have scored 132 total touchdowns, which translates to 2.13 per game per team. At this point of the season last year teams were averaging 2.44 touchdowns per game, with that mark rising to 2.55 touchdowns per contest by season’s end.
Even in games where we’ve seen some high total points scored, there have been a fair share of lopsided victories, with 14 of the 31 contests so far decided by 14 or more points.
Of the teams that have played two games, seven of them have scored two or fewer offensive touchdowns, including the Bengals and 49ers, both of whom have yet to produce an offensive TD.
It is not only points that are down. Total net yardage has also taken hit, falling off more than 70 yards per outing off of last year’s number. The average of 644.3 total yards per game is the lowest mark through two weeks league-wide since 2010.
It’s hard to pinpoint a single reason for the decrease in production. Perhaps the defenses are just catching up. Maybe some of the offseason adjustments in practice rules are causing for a slow start offensively. Regardless of the reason it is definitely going to be a trend to watch and eventually one we should expect to see start trending in the other direction and with that increased fantasy production will come.
Passing on the Saints
Death, taxes, and the Saints’ defense being terrible – three things every fantasy owner can generally count on. New Orleans has struggled to slow down opponents for some time, especially through the air, and that has certainly been the case this year.
In 2014 the Saints gave up the fifth-most points (22.6) per game to fantasy quarterbacks. During the 2015 season, no team allowed fantasy signal-callers to score more than New Orleans (28.1) did. Last year they improved slightly, but still ceded the eighth-most points the position (22.2).
Through two weeks of this season, the Saints are allowing a league-high 32.1 fantasy points to the position. To put that into further perspective all but three teams (NE, NYJ, and ARI) have allowed 10 or fewer points per game to quarterbacks than New Orleans has managed to do through two weeks.
Sam Bradford torched the Saints in Week 1 by throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns on 27-of-32 passing on his way to NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. In Week 2, Tom Brady upped the mark by throwing for 447 yards and three touchdowns of his own.
Cam Newton gets a crack at the Saints in Week 3. He has started off his 2017 campaign slowly by completing only 59.6 percent of his passes for 399 yards and two touchdowns. Newton will also now be playing without his favorite target, tight end Greg Olsen, who was placed on injured reserve this week due to a broken foot. Still, there’s reason for optimism for him in this matchup. Not only have the Saints been struggling, but the Carolina quarterback has had some big days against his NFC South foes. Newton has broken the 30-point mark in four his last five meetings with the Saints, throwing for 13 touchdowns and rushing for three more scores against them during that span.
White is right in PPR
Trying to figure out which Patriots’ running back to play has long been a tough code for fantasy owners to crack, and this summer the depth chart was as blurred as ever. However, early on this season things have been fairly clear.
Mike Gillislee is the short-yardage guy who will get the ball at the goal line and is a safe bet to break the double-digit TD mark. Rex Burkhead is a change-of-pace jack-of-all trades who won’t be consistent enough to be counted on barring an injury while James White remains the passing-down option. On a team where wideouts are dropping like flies, White has emerged as one of Tom Brady’s top receiving options. He leads the team in receptions (11), is second in targets (12), and third in receiving yards (115).
After turning a MVP-type performance the Super Bowl, White has picked up where he left off. In PPR formats he should be viewed as a high-floor RB2 and is flex worthy in non-PPR leagues based off his volume in the passing game.
In Ertz we trust
Zach Ertz is picking up right where he left a year ago as one of fantasy’s top tight ends. From Week 9 on last season he led all players at the position in fantasy points (154 PPR/91 standard), targets (83) and receptions (63) and tied for second in touchdowns (4) and receiving yards (666).
Ertz leads the position in receiving yards (190) and is second in targets (19), and third in receptions (13) through two weeks this year. He’s still searching for his first touchdown, but rest assured he’s quickly becoming Carson Wentz’s favorite target. His numbers got a boost this week with a fluke 53-yard catch off a deflection versus the Chiefs. However, his respectable 81 percent catch rate and 10.0-yard aDOT through two games are promising.
The departure of Jordan Matthews in an offseason trade has opened up even more opportunities for Ertz working in the slot and Wentz is playing well so expect the trend to continue.
Duke is a nice catch
With the news of Corey Coleman (hand) heading to injured reserve, now might be the time to buy low on running back Duke Johnson. He finished last season fifth in targets (74) for running backs and will be needed to take on an even larger role now with the Coleman’s departure from the lineup.
Johnson was held to just two catches for 20 yards in Week 1 against the Steelers. He was targeted just five times in Week 2 and pulled in three of those while finishing with 59 yards. The Ravens’ defense was a tough, physical matchup, but the schedule is going to lighten up in the weeks ahead with the Colts, Bengals and Jets on tap over the next three. Expect a breakout ahead for the Cleveland running back.
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