• The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes continue to stall out: Mahomes finished as a QB15 or worse for the fifth time in the past six weeks, leaving fantasy managers to wonder if he can be trusted through the remainder of the playoffs.
• Since his red-hot start to the season, Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne has cooled off: Etienne has failed to clear 10 fantasy points (full-PPR) in back-to-back weeks, and with news of a shoulder injury to Trevor Lawrence, things aren’t looking any better for this passing offense.
• Baltimore Ravens TE Isaiah Likely comes back down to Earth: Likely followed up two top-five weeks with a disappointing outing in a high-scoring game against the San Francisco 49ers.
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
As the 2023 fantasy football season winds down, evaluating down weeks from key contributors to your roster becomes more important than ever. With just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, it’s one-and-done territory, after all! Here are five stats highlighting the biggest fantasy disappointments from Week 16 and a temperature check to help you make your lineup decisions in the weeks to come — is it time to panic, or just a Week 16 antic?
Patrick Mahomes finishes as a QB15 or worse for the fifth time in the last six weeks
It’s no secret that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense have been on a bit of a skid as of late. Heading into Week 17, Mahomes leads all passers this season with 28 drops from his pass-catchers, highlighting a big problem with the reliability of the receiving corps. Not only has it translated to problems for the offense, it’s also limited Mahomes’ upside for fantasy significantly this season, as he's finished as the QB15 or worse in five of the past six weeks. It begs the question – is Mahomes still a must-start through the fantasy football playoffs?
Though it’s likely a big ask to trust Mahomes given the state of things in Kansas City, Week 17 could be the bounceback game managers are hoping for. The Chiefs will face the Cincinnati Bengals at home this week, whose defense has struggled a bit without top cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt and are now also down DT D.J. Reader, who will miss the remainder of the season due to a quad injury. Since their first game without Taylor-Britt in Week 10, the Bengals have allowed a league-high 2,117 passing yards while ranking top-eight in NFL passer rating (98.4), explosive pass plays (48) and fantasy points per game (19.17) allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Reader’s absence, in particular, could be a big difference maker for Kansas City in Week 17. The Chiefs offensive line gave up 21 total pressures in Week 16. Reader has ranked 11th among interior defenders with a 79.1 pass-rush grade this season.
Temperature check: Week 16 antic
Travis Etienne fails to clear 10 fantasy points (full PPR) in the second consecutive week
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne was off to a red-hot start to the fantasy football season, one of four running backs in the league to average 20-plus fantasy points per game before the team’s Week 9 bye. However, Etienne has struggled with efficiency this season, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry while running behind an offensive line whose 42.4 run-blocking grade ranks 31st out of 32 teams. It’s caught up to him in a big way through the second half of the season. Since Week 10, Etienne’s finished outside of the top 24 in four of seven outings – the RB31 in fantasy points per game in that span.
To close out the season, the Jaguars will face the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans, whose defenses have both held opposing running backs below 3.8 yards per carry dating back to Week 9, as each has ranked top 10 in running back stuff rate and total number of negative rush attempts against. That doesn’t bode well for Etienne, especially considering his biggest struggles have been with efficiency. There aren’t many fantasy teams with the luxury to be able to sit Etienne but beware that he could post another couple of down weeks just in time for the fantasy football championship, which could necessitate some high-upside plays elsewhere in your lineup. Adding insult to injury is a potential absence from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is now dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit some of the scoring potential in an already struggling offense if C.J. Beathard starts.
Temperature check: Time to panic
Chicago Bears WR D.J. Moore posts just 18 yards in a solid matchup against the Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore has already managed a career-high eight scrimmage touchdowns and is just 53 yards away from officially notching his highest scrimmage yard total. Unfortunately, his Week 16 outing against the Arizona Cardinals didn’t do much to help him get there, totaling just 18 receiving yards for his worst fantasy performance of the 2023 season while teammate Cole Kmet notched a career-high 107 receiving yards. Moore’s Week 16 finish was just the latest stop on the roller coaster of production this season, as he's finished either inside the top 10 or as a WR3 or worse in all but one game. In short, it’s been boom or bust and not much in between.
Fantasy managers will now be forced to decide whether that upside will be worth the relatively low floor once again in Week 17. However, a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons should give some pause, as this defense has allowed a league-low 22.16 fantasy points per game in the second half of the season. Dating back to Week 9, the Falcons have given up just 102.3 receiving yards and one touchdown to opposing wideouts per game – combined! Just four wide receivers have scored 10-plus fantasy points in that span, with Chris Olave the only wide receiver with 15-plus fantasy points with a 7-114-0 line. Beware of the potential for another down week.
Temperature check: Time to panic
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp is outscored by Demarcus Robinson in Week 16
After five consecutive weeks without clearing 50 yards or scoring a touchdown, Rams WR Cooper Kupp earned back the trust of fantasy managers with a couple of “boom” games. Anyone relying on another big week was met with disappointment, however, totaling six receptions for 52 yards as the overall WR36 on the week while teammate Demarcus Robinson blew up on the waiver wire.
Despite being outscored by both wide receivers Puka Nacua and Demarcus Robinson, Kupp still had many opportunities that could have yielded a different outcome. Kupp led the team with 12 total targets on the day, while also commanding a team-high six targets in the red zone. Kupp was unable to capitalize on those opportunities, of course, dropping two would-be touchdown passes from Stafford, which would have significantly changed the narrative of his day. It marked his second-highest target total all season long, even if he was unable to capitalize on those opportunities. Fantasy managers will be happy to see a matchup against the New York Giants in store for Week 17, who ranks fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, which should put him in a position for a bounce back.
Temperature check: Week 16 antic
Baltimore Ravens TE Isaiah Likely comes back down to Earth in a challenging matchup
The Baltimore Ravens dropped 33 total points on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, but unfortunately for fantasy managers, that didn’t translate to a big day for breakout tight end Isaiah Likely. After back-to-back weeks as a top-five fantasy tight end, Likely notched three receptions for 56 yards for a finish as the TE23. All things considered, it could have been worse, as Likely did manage the fourth-highest yardage total of any tight end to face the 49ers this year. Still, in a must-win game, it was a disappointment.
Despite Likely’s end-of-week ranking, his usage was encouraging, ranked ninth among tight ends in total routes run in Week 16. His 34 routes run ranked second on the entire Ravens offense, running more routes than the team’s other top wide receivers like Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman. Lamar Jackson made an effort to disperse targets throughout the offense fairly evenly outside of rookie Zay Flowers, with six different receivers having totaled three-plus targets on the day. Make no mistake about it, though – Likely is this team’s WR2 – at least, as long as Mark Andrews remains out of the lineup.
Temperature check: Week 16 antic
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