Fantasy Football: Time to panic or Week 10 antic?

• Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson continues unproductive streak in fantasy leagues: A strong defense and run game have slowed production for Jackson in recent weeks, but their upcoming schedule may force a spark for the passing game.

• Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard continues to disappoint fantasy managers: Pollard’s lack of touchdown production hasn’t been the only red flag.

• Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen has been on a scoreless skid: Thielen’s target share makes him a difficult asset to leave out of your lineups, however.

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

With the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins on a bye in Week 10, most fantasy football managers probably had low expectations for the week, which only made the bad sting even worse. Here are five stats highlighting various fantasy disappointments from Week 10 and a temperature check; is it time to panic, or just a Week 10 antic?

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson notches a third consecutive week as QB15 or worse

The Ravens defense ranks second in the league in EPA per play against, allowing a league-low 4.1 yards per play and the third-lowest scoring drive percentage in the league at 27.8%. Their run game with Gus Edwards, breakout rookie Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill has been a strong complement to that defense, too, much to the detriment of Lamar Jackson’s fantasy managers. Those circumstances, paired with a challenging matchup against the Browns secondary have led to three straight games where Jackson has finished as the QB15 or worse in fantasy.

Over the past three weeks, Jackson has averaged just 25 pass attempts per game, which ranked 29th among quarterbacks. Their upcoming schedule should be a cure for what ails them — AKA, tremendous success that has put them in situations where they don’t need to pass. Through the remainder of the season, they’ll face several of the league’s best offenses, including the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams (hopefully with Matthew Stafford in tow), the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins. While some of those will present Jackson with an equally challenging defensive matchup, this should force the passing offense to pick up the pace. Expect a bounce back from Jackson sooner rather than later. 

Temperature check: Week 10 antic

Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard fails to find the end zone… again

After a very disappointing start to the season, fantasy managers were hopeful that another matchup against the New York Giants might be the cure for Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard. Fifteen touches and 55 scrimmage yards later, it turns out it most certainly was not. Pollard’s last touchdown came in the third quarter of Week 1.

Beyond Pollard’s issues with the end zone, there are several other glaring problems with his play. Statistically, across the board, Pollard’s been inefficient in comparison to his career averages.

Is Pollard fully healthy? It would seem given his inefficiencies that he might not be, perhaps having lost some juice. Speed data would seem to support that notion, as Pollard has averaged a speed of 12.18 MPH in 2023 compared to his career average of 13.07 per NFL Next Gen Stats. Pollard’s also hit 15+ mph on just 16.5% of plays this season, in comparison to his career total of 25.9%. All around, Pollard is showing a lack of burst that he’s had in previous seasons, which should concern fantasy managers far more than a lack of touchdown scoring. It’s time to panic. 

Temperature check: Time to panic

Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen’s down streak continues

After a red-hot start to the 2023 season, Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen notched his third consecutive game without scoring a touchdown, and fantasy managers are left wondering if his early production was just a flash in the pan. Though this offense has had its growing pains with rookie quarterback Bryce Young under center, Thielen has been a source of stability as his favorite target. 

Despite being on a bit of a skid lately, averaging just under eight fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, Thielen’s target share in that span remains encouraging. Thielen has commanded eight or more targets in all but one game since the season opener, and this offense isn’t likely to be in a position to grind out games any time soon. Though the touchdown production may be volatile (as it is for most fantasy producers), Thielen ranks 12th among wide receivers this season with 85 targets and fifth with 68 total receptions, and volume is king. 

Temperature check: Week 10 antic

Chicago Bears WR D.J. Moore has yet to score more than 10 fantasy points in a game without QB Justin Fields

Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields was forced out of action with a dislocated thumb in Week 6, and since then, it’s been rookie Tyson Bagent under center. Unsurprisingly, Bagent’s presence hasn’t exactly been a spark for the passing offense, averaging more than 30 fewer passing yards per game in Weeks 6-10 than they had to start the season. Furthermore, the team’s 7.2% passing touchdown rate in Weeks 1-5 has dropped down to 2% since Fields’ injury, which – you guessed it – has translated to a significant drop in fantasy production for the receiving corps. 

Star WR D.J. Moore has yet to score more than 10 fantasy points in a single game without Fields, which might have fantasy managers questioning if they can start him moving forward as they look to secure a fantasy football playoff berth. The good news is that Moore has remained a consistent target share and relatively safe floor despite the limited ceiling, having seen five or more targets in each game with Bagent under center, with at least 50 receiving yards in four of those five outings. As long as Fields remains out, Moore can be deployed as a WR3 with upside; let go of the dreams that he’ll be the WR1 that you thought you’d drafted him to be earlier this season. As soon as Fields returns, however, watch out; Moore might just win you a fantasy football championship.

Temperature check: Justin Fields-less antic

Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts remains unproductive despite a decreased role for Jonnu Smith

Atlanta Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith played a season-low 44% of snaps in Week 10, commanding just two targets, catching one of them for a single receiving yard. Though Pitts led the team with five total targets on the day, it translated to just three receptions for 30 receiving yards. Though the ceiling remains high for Pitts based on talent alone, he’s generally failed to reach that ceiling, still seeking his first game of 15+ fantasy points on the season. 

Though many fantasy managers have expressed frustration regarding Pitts’ usage, he’s actually had some decent opportunity, with a 19% target share (8th among tight ends), 5.8 targets per game (10th), 628 targeted air yards (2nd) and seven total targets of 20 or more air yards, tied with 49ers TE George Kittle to lead the league. Despite the Falcons’ reputation as a “run heavy” offense, they’ve ranked top-12 in total pass attempts this season; the only problem is, they haven’t resulted in much. Through nine games this season, the Falcons rank 21st in the league with just 204.9 passing yards per game and 25th in the league with a 2.8% passing touchdown rate. 

In reality, the usage has been there for Pitts… it’s just time we come to grips with the fact that it hasn’t resulted in production. Pitts remains rostered in 86% of ESPN fantasy leagues and was started in 55% of those in Week 10. It’s time to come to grips that until they figure out the quarterback position, Pitts managers need to move on and start streaming the position. 

Temperature check: Time to panic