When it comes to fantasy football drafts, one of the most valuable tools is average draft position data. This information lets us know when a player usually comes off the board, and it makes it much easier to plan ahead and formulate your draft strategy round-by-round.
But ADP data is not without its flaws. Fantasy drafts are not an exact science, of course, and the community at large is still susceptible to overvaluing players for a number of factors: Offseason hype that never died down; a player on a new team; a big name going “late” in the draft, so it seems like a steal; a player who dominated on limited opportunities the previous year.
Each round has at least one landmine. We try to uncover some of them for you.
Round 1: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Freeman is my No. 7 running back in standard ranks, but he’s currently going fifth (soon to be fourth after Ezekiel Elliott’s falling ADP is accounted for), according to ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. Obviously, Freeman is a strong RB1. But he’s more of an early second-round pick than a mid-first in standard leagues.
Round 2: Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
Miller’s current ADP is 2.12, or 24th overall. That doesn’t seem too far off from the PFF Fantasy staff consensus ranking of 31st overall, but there’s a notable difference between a second-round pick and a third-round pick in fantasy leagues.
His 268 rushing attempts last year provide a decent floor (sixth-most rushing attempts), but he gained just 4.0 YPC and scored just five touchdowns. He also now has D’Onta Foreman to contend with. Miller will be the workhorse again, but spending a second-round pick on him feels dirty.
Round 3: Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers
Montgomery is currently going at pick 3.08, or 33rd overall. The PFF Fantasy staff has him ranked 38th in aggregate, and I have him ranked 42nd overall. In PPR leagues, I could see the justification for spending a third-round pick on Montgomery, but not in standard leagues.
He’s largely unproven as a running back (just 72 rushing attempts last season) and he plays with Aaron Rodgers, who is far more likely to throw for a score than hand it off for one. Montgomery isn’t safe enough for the third round.
Round 4: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hill is coming off draft boards at 4.04, or 41st overall. PFF has him ranked 60th overall. Hill was an efficiency monster last year, scoring 0.49 fantasy points per opportunity — tops among all wideouts by a wide margin — and 0.26 fantasy points per snap, tied for second-most with Julio Jones.
Hill will be Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout this year, but we must remember that he only gained 599 receiving yards on 61 receptions in 2016. For the most part, Hill is still largely unproven. His impressive ceiling and untapped potential makes him worthy of a fifth-round pick, but not an early fourth.
Round 5: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He’s the No. 54 player coming off draft boards, but he’s No. 88 in the PFF overall ranks. He’s also suspended to start the year and is arguably the most inconsistent fantasy running back of the decade. He has played in 16 games just twice in five years, and he has only averaged 4.0 YPC or more in two seasons.
To be fair, he was a beast in those two seasons, gaining over 1,400 yards on both occasions. But the other three years of his career? He had fewer than 500 rushing yards each year.
After scoring 11 rushing touchdowns as a rookie, Martin has compiled just 12 in the past four years combined. He averaged a measly 2.9 YPC last year and now finds himself on a pass-happy offense loaded at receiver. With a fifth-round price tag, this is a hard pass.
Round 6: Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
The hype is strong with Carr. He’s the No. 69 player being drafted, but the PFF consensus actually has him at 124. Carr has a lot going for him: He’s young and he’s surrounded by young talent. And while he had an impressive 28-6 TD-INT ratio last year and garnered legitimate praise as an MVP candidate, there were still some drawbacks.
For one, he averaged 246 yards per game. That’s good for over 4,200 on the year, but that’s not truly elite any more. A total of 11 quarterbacks matched that figure last year. Additionally, Carr had the 12th-most dropbacks in his games played (Weeks 1-16) — good, but not great. With a more reliable running behind him now, thanks to Marshawn Lynch, there’s little reason to believe Carr’s passing volume, yardage, or touchdowns will increase.
Carr is being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy. In reality, he’s closer to No. 15. He’s a borderline QB1, not a bona fide member of the group.
Round 7: Martellus Bennett, TE, Green Bay Packers
Bennett fits a need in Green Bay — tight end — but he’s more of a tail-end TE1 than a must-draft TE1, which is what the Round 7 price tag would suggest. All PFF rankers have Bennett somewhere in the 9-12 range, but his current ADP has him as the seventh tight end coming off draft boards.
The problem? Aaron Rodgers rains touchdowns upon the NFL — but almost all of them go to his wideouts. Of his 40 touchdown passes last year, only three went to tight ends.
Round 8: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The second Bucs running back to make the list, Rodgers is going at the end of Round 8 (8.12), or 97th overall. The PFF consensus rankings have Rodgers at No. 142 overall, way, way off from his current ADP.
Rodgers was decent in spot duty last year and he had 30-plus touches in multiple games, which is certainly a plus. But he had a ho-hum 4.3 YPC average (not bad, but nothing spectacular) and scored just two touchdowns on 129 rushing attempts. He also did nothing through the air, gaining just 98 receiving yards in 10 games.
Round 9: Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Rawls is not going to happen this year, folks. There are been murmurs that Rawls is the team’s No. 1 running back, but Eddie Lacy is still the best bet to be the team’s lead back in Week 1. Additionally, C.J. Prosise will undoubtedly play a role in this offense.
At best, Rawls is looking at a timeshare; barring several injuries, there’s just no chance he becomes a workhorse. At worst, Rawls is a bona fide backup who doesn’t touch the ball enough to warrant a fantasy start.
He’s a wasted pick in the ninth round. He’s currently coming off draft boards as the No. 41 running back, but PFF Fantasy consensus rankings have him at 53 overall. (The 53rd running back doesn’t get drafted until Round 12, which is a better spot for Rawls fliers.)
Round 10: O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Howard has a bright future, and I’m actually convinced rookie tight ends can put up big numbers if they have the requisite volume (which they rarely have, so they rarely but up big numbers) — but Howard likely won’t see the needed volume in 2017 to warrant his current ADP in Round 10 as a tail-end TE1.
His PFF consensus rankings have him as the No. 23 tight end, but he’s currently the No. 11 tight end being drafted. The rookie hype never died with Howard, even though it seems clear that Cameron Brate will still be involved in the passing game. Howard is not even guaranteed to be Tampa Bay’s No. 1 tight end — let alone the No. 1 tight end for your fantasy squad.
Rounds 11-16
Once you’re at this point of the draft, it’s a bit unfair to call anyone overvalued. Most players are just reaching for the stars with high-upside players at this stage.
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