With the fantasy football regular season fast approaching, there’s certainly no shortage of articles featuring “sleepers” and “breakout” candidates. They’re all the rage, and I get it. We all want to unlock that late-round gem that puts our squad over the top.
However, just as important is knowing which players offer poor value and simply aren’t worth their current going rate. By staying on top of average draft position and using PFF data, let’s hone in on some overvalued players to leave for one of your competitors to draft.
Check back on Tuesday for the most undervalued fantasy options based on ADP.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: 5.11, QB4)
Prior to 2016, Ryan had never finished higher than the QB7 over his first eight seasons in the league. Not to discredit the amazing year that netted Ryan an MVP award and a Super Bowl appearance, but he saw a league-high 7.1 percent of his pass attempts result in touchdowns. Ryan’s previous career-best was 5.2 percent in 2012 when he tossed 32 TDs. Even if Ryan duplicates his success in other passing metrics from last season, a touchdown regression is coming (he also threw a career-low seven interceptions).
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
(ADP: 2.11, QB1)
Look, we can all agree Rodgers is the alpha dog among QBs. But spending a second-round pick on a quarterback, even Rodgers, is simply not a wise play when weighed against the opportunity cost of a top-tier positional starter. Rodgers finished as fantasy’s QB8 as recently as 2015, when 11 quarterbacks eclipsed 300 points. While Rodgers has annually been at or near the top at his position, only once in the PFF era has a QB repeated as the top fantasy player (Drew Brees in 2011-12). After Rodgers, there were 19 QBs who averaged within five fantasy points per game of one another in 2016.
Running back
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: 1.11, RB6)
From fantasy production to PFF grade, the Kyle Shanahan effect saw virtually every member of the Falcons’ offense enjoy a career year this past season. So you’re not all that concerned about Shanahan leaving for San Francisco. Fine. But we still need to talk about Tevin Coleman, because he’s not going anywhere. Remember when Coleman was threatening to claim the starting gig entering his rookie season before a hamstring injury opened the door for Freeman? Well, in the 12 games that Coleman started and finished this past season, Freeman enjoyed only a 53/43 percent split in snap share. Coleman has also posted a better yards-per-carry average and breakaway percentage since entering the league. Too close to call with this early of a fantasy pick.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
(ADP: 3.03, RB13)
When he was with the Dolphins, Miller was one of the most efficient, yet maddeningly under-utilized backs in the league. After signing with Houston last offseason, fantasy owners finally got their wish of an unleashed Miller. Sort of. Shifting to the Texans’ zone-blocking scheme, Miller finished 49th out of 53 qualifiers in elusive rating and posted the lowest fantasy points per opportunity of the top-20 RBs. To bank on Miller is to bank on increased efficiency with a year under his belt in Houston’s scheme. Because with Doak Walker Award winner D’Onta Foreman added to the fold, Miller will be hard-pressed to match last year’s career-high 299 touches, particularly around the goal line.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers
(ADP: 3.08, RB15)
A guy who played wide receiver until Week 6 and then only once logged double-digit carries in a game despite little backfield competition is now being drafted as a mid-RB2? No thanks. A slew of injuries forced coach Mike McCarthy to get creative midway through last season, but the Packers drafted three running backs, and fourth-rounder Jamaal Williams is already working with the first team. As dynamic as he is, Montgomery fits the bill of a player who is more impactful to his real-life team than to your fantasy team. Let someone else ride out the weekly peaks and valleys.
Wide receiver
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
(ADP: 2.06, WR8)
Do you really want to pony up that premium price tag for a guy who has been the second-most-productive fantasy receiver on his own team in each of the last two seasons? While I love Cooper as a player, it’s tough to justify him as the WR8 when Michael Crabtree is being drafted as the WR24, despite besting Cooper in both bottom-line and per-opportunity fantasy production since 2015.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
(ADP: 4.06, WR21)
Adams’ 997 receiving yards in 2016 were more than his first two years in the league combined, but ultimately it was his 12 TDs that helped him finish as a top-10 fantasy WR. Now, that same player who totaled four scores over his first two years is being drafted as a fantasy starter, ahead of guys like Tyreek Hill, Martavis Bryant, and even Crabtree. Keep in mind, Adams ranked 49th in yards per route run (1.58) and 52nd in PFF receiving grade in 2016. Touchdowns are one of the least predictive stats from year to year, but it’s a good bet that a healthy Randall Cobb will be more of a factor in the red zone, where Aaron Rodgers looked his way 60 times over the previous three seasons, seventh-most among all players in that span.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
(ADP 10.07, WR48)
Thielen is currently being drafted right after the likes of Corey Davis and Corey Coleman, and ahead of Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, and a number of upside options. But as our Jeff Ratcliffe has noted, Thielen overshot his expected production by a historic rate (316 yards and 16 catches). No, Thielen won’t cost you much draft capital, but that still doesn’t mean you can’t find better options in the 10th round.
Tight end
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
(ADP: 5.04)
Coming off his third straight 1,000-yard receiving season, Olsen is as sure a thing as any at the tight end position, right? Well, maybe not. Olsen saw a career-high 122 regular-season targets in 2016, but now 32, he may be hard-pressed to repeat that kind of volume with the Panthers tweaking their offense to fit versatile rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel. Through the first six weeks of 2016, Olsen was fantasy’s TE1 by a wide margin. However, he was only the No. 14 TE over the final 10 games.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
(ADP: 10.03, TE11)
Is it really possible the Ertz fantasy window has already closed? Our 39th-graded TE in 2016, Ertz was arguably the Eagles’ most talented pass-catcher, but now finds himself fending for targets alongside new additions Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith (not to mention Brent Celek is still in the picture). He has yet to eclipse four TDs in any of his four pro seasons despite amassing 247 catches. I know I said earlier touchdowns aren’t the most predictive statistic to go by, but Ertz has four years in the league, and his 5.26-percent TD rate in that span ranks 77th among tight ends. Good luck improving that rate with Jeffery and LeGarrette Blount now in the picture down near the goal line.
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