The fantasy football drafting season is inching closer and closer. It’s been another whirlwind of offseason activity and there have been a number of changes around the league that have serious fantasy implications. Excluding the rookie additions, I’ll be counting down the top-six most important moves around the league that will directly impact fantasy football drafts.
Without further ado:
6. DeSean Jackson to the Buccaneers
Perhaps one of the most obvious free agent predictions, Jackson was a match made in heaven for the Buccaneers offense. Jackson’s presence will prevent opposing secondaries from triple teaming — yes, triple teaming — Mike Evans like they did at times last year. The speedster will keep defenses honest and force them to cover both sides of the side field on the perimeter.
Since joining the league in 2008, Jackson ranks second in pass plays of 20-plus yards and first in 30-plus. He has averaged 17.7 yards per reception over his career and his penchant for big plays has led to him accumulating the sixth-most 100-yard games over that time span. Jackson will continue to be a boom-or-bust fantasy asset in Tampa Bay, but his presence will open things up immensely for QB Jameis Winston. This is going to be an exciting offense to watch in 2017.
5. Marshawn Lynch to the Raiders
The NFL is a better product when “Beast Mode” is playing. Lynch’s return to the NFL is an interesting one for fantasy purposes. He enters a fantastic situation behind this stout offensive line assembled by Oakland:
Last year, the Raiders provided their running backs the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt (1.95). There are plenty of question marks surrounding Lynch, but he’s in line to get the early work behind one of the league’s best offensive lines while playing in an offense that was top-10 in red-zone trips per game (3.4) last year. DeAndre Washington could get the nod for the receiving work in a third-down role, but Jalen Richard’s athletic measurements hardly make him much competition. The presence of Washington could put a ceiling on Lynch’s receiving upside, but Lynch can more than make for that in touchdowns. Lynch has scored double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five years he’s played and Seattle’s offensive lines were nothing like the one he has now. I’ll admit, Lynch’s age and injury history have made it difficult for me to buy with his ADP of RB16 (early fourth round), but with Vegas projecting the Raiders for 9.5 wins, this team will likely be playing in plenty of positive game scripts for Lynch to capitalize on late touches and some heavy goal line work.
4. Brandon Marshall to the Giants
The Giants made quite a splash this offseason, adding veteran WR Brandon Marshall and rookie TE Evan Engram to give QB Eli Manning plenty of weapons at his disposal in 2017. Marshall is coming off arguably the worst season of his career, but it’s difficult to place the entire onus on him with such inept quarterback play.
In 2015, 72% of @BMarshall's targets were deemed catchable by PFF. In 2016, only 55% of his targets (lowest in NFL) were deemed catchable.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 3, 2017
He’ll get a reprieve from such play joining Eli and the Giants in what looks like a potential breakout year for Manning. Marshall should factor in right away as an elite red-zone weapon for Manning to utilize. Over the last five years, Marshall ranks second in targets from inside both the 20- (108) and 10-yard (56) lines. He has scored the most (37) and fourth-most touchdowns (20) from those respective distances. Since Ben McAdoo’s arrival, the Giants’ ranking in pass-play percentage has been on the rise each year, going from 19th (2014), to 12th (2015), to 10th (2016). Their red-zone pass-play percentage also ranks a cumulative top-five over that time span at 61.6 percent. Marshall’s current ADP (WR34) doesn’t provide a ton of value, but he has immense touchdown upside that’s well worth chasing as a WR3 capable of putting up a few top-12 weeks.
3. Terrelle Pryor to the Redskins
After a breakout season in 2016 with Cleveland, Pryor left for greener pastures in Washington. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon’s departures leaves 200 targets for Pyror to encumber, where he’ll be looking to build off last year’s breakout stat line of 77 receptions for 1,007 yards and four touchdowns. Washington finished top-10 in both pass attempts and passing yards last season, throwing the ball 62.44 percent of the time (eighth-highest). My favorite stat from the Browns last year (h/t to Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar), was that in the five games Cody Kessler threw at least 15 or more passes, Pryor averaged 19.96 PPR points. Over a 16-game season, that would’ve been a 319-point season with Pryor finishing as the top fantasy wide receiver last year. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds with 4.41 speed, Pryor has yet to reach his ceiling as a wide receiver still learning the game. He’ll get every opportunity to succeed in Washington as the de facto No. 1 option in this heavy passing attack.
2. The Eagles revamp their offense
The Philadelphia Eagles were busy this offseason, adding playmakers all over the field. Alshon Jeffery was signed to a one-year, $14 million “prove it” type deal in hopes of reaching a major pay day. Jeffery’s recent lack of all-star performance — seven games missed due to injury in 2015, four games to suspension in 2016 — has left fantasy owners a bit hesitant to invest heavily this year (current ADP of WR20). However, those hesitations may be misguided. From 2013 to 2015, Jeffery was an incredible target hog, averaging 9.5 per game and accruing 26.3 percent of the team’s target share. He posted the most targets per route run (0.33) and was fruitful with his opportunities, finishing with the ninth-most 100-yard games (12) and posting 13 top-12 PPR weeks over those 41 games (31.7 percent). If Jeffery can stay healthy and avoid trouble, he could become a major weapon in an offense that had QB Carson Wentz finish with the fifth-most pass attempts last year (607).
The Eagles also signed Torrey Smith to an incredibly team-friendly contract. Smith could be another reclamation-type project for Philadelphia after Smith spent the last two seasons wasting his prime years in San Francisco. I could drop another 200-plus words on why Smith disappointed in San Francisco, but Scott Barrett already covered my back on that one earlier this week. A change of scenery in an offense that won’t ask much from him could be exactly what the doctor prescribed for Smith.
Instead, I’ll focus on the addition of LeGarrette Blount in an offense that desperately needed a bruiser to be added. Darren Sproles and fourth-rounder Donnel Pumphrey are two diminutive backs with speed to burn, but a player of Blount’s pedigree brings some much-needed power to this offense. Only Dallas and Buffalo had more rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line than Philadelphia last year (15). Blount will likely have inconsistency week-to-week in fantasy leagues, but will more than make up for it in best-ball formats when he’s able to pick up those two touchdown games.
1. The Patriots continue “The Patriot Way”
After winning Super Bowl XLI via an unconventional comeback from down 28-3 (largest deficit in Super Bowl history), New England continued to defy the league’s traditions by acquiring multiple veterans in lieu of draft packs. Through a bevy of trades, New England brought in Brandin Cooks, Kony Ealy, Barkevious Mingo, Kyle Van Noy, and Dwayne Allen. They later added Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead, Stephon Gilmore, and David Harris via free agency. There will be plenty of new faces when training camp starts, but most of them won’t be 21-year-old baby faces.
Looking specifically at their biggest move on the offensive side of the ball, New England added one of the league’s best up-and-coming receivers in Cooks, giving up just the 32nd overall pick for him. Cooks entered the league at an incredibly young age, just finishing his age-23 season last season. He has the seventh-most receiving yards for a 23-year old to start his career (2,861) and will now go from one superstar quarterback in Drew Brees to another in Tom Brady. Over the course of his career, Cooks has a 112.5 WR rating (passer rating when targeted) and has steadily improved his yards per route run. Cooks will provide another weapon on the outside for Brady to target as a major speed threat on the outside. He has a strong chance to continue building on an impressive fantasy resume after finishing as the WR10 and WR13 the past two years. There will certainly be a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and while Cooks may not see quite the same volume as last year, he could potentially make up for it in touchdowns. Given New England’s highly efficient offense and penchant for finishing drives with scores, look for Cooks to finish right around the same area as a low WR1/high WR2 option in one of the league’s best offenses.
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