Treylon Burks may not be a finished product, but the Tennessee Titans landed a big-time playmaker with Pick 18 after moving A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Burks is a top-half-of-the-first-round option in Round 1 of rookie dynasty drafts with WR1 upside.
Among FBS receivers who ran at least 250 routes, the 6-foot-3, 225-pounder finished fifth in yards after the catch per reception (9.3) in 2021. Burks delivered a 15-plus-yard reception on 27% of his targets over his career at Arkansas, second-best in the 2022 class behind only Jameson Williams (29%).
From a pure production standpoint, the former Razorback owns the class’ second-best dominator rating (45%) and boasts a solid 20.5 breakout age. His career yards per route run average ranks ahead of Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London and Chris Olave. Burks checks the box on as many production and efficiency metrics as anyone in the class.
Concerns with the 22-year-old primarily tie to his usage in the Razorbacks’ scheme, where almost 20% of his routes came behind the line of scrimmage. It is tough to determine if that was driven by flaws in his game or other factors, but when isolating performance to the routes most often used in the NFL, he wasn’t consistent, ranking 16th of 27 receivers sampled. Despite that, he performed well on the slant, in and crossing routes, where he could utilize his large frame and deploy his YAC skills.
Burks was mostly protected via inside and backfield alignments but did flash big-play potential in his few opportunities working outside against single-man coverage.
NCAA career yards per route (YPRR) vs. single-man coverage:
4.75 Justyn Ross
4.00 Garrett Wilson
3.37 David Bell
3.19 Treylon Burks
3.03 Khalil Shakir
2.99 Chris Olave
2.94 Skyy Moore
2.78 Jameson Williams
2.76 George Pickens
2.66 John Metchie
2.63 Drake London
2.42 Jahan Dotson— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) February 27, 2022
Refinements will be necessary for Burks to take his game to the next level in the NFL. Still, his underlying data compares well to previous high-performing fantasy players like Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery. If he can round out his game across a broader route tree, he carries tremendous upside but also has a chance to contribute immediately in a scheme that creates space for playmakers.
Burks gets just what the doctor ordered. He goes to the Titans, where Brown made a living on in-breaking routes off play-action, allowing him to pile up yards after the catch. Brown ranked No. 1 in the percentage of targets on play action in 2021 at 43% (minimum 250 routes).
Tennesse isn’t a pass-heavy offense, but Ryan Tannehill can support a big-play receiver. And Robert Woods has never eclipsed 22% targets per route in his career, leaving plenty of room for Burks to carve out a significant role.
Bottom Line: Burks is a low-end WR3 in redraft and best-ball formats for 2022.
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