Entering the 2017 season, the San Francisco 49ers are hoping the third time's the charm when it comes to head coaches. After the power struggle that resulted in Jim Harbaugh’s departure, even though he had a better winning percentage than Bill Walsh, the 49ers have whiffed on the first two successors, Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly. Now it’s Kyle Shanahan’s turn to attempt to return the 49ers to greatness.
Shanahan comes from Atlanta, where he led a Falcons offense that was second in yards and first in points. Admittedly, he had a lot of really good players to work with, from league-MVP quarterback Matt Ryan to all-world receiver Julio Jones. Shanahan won’t have the same caliber of personnel at his disposal but there are several intriguing pieces to consider for your fantasy team.
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Team Offensive Stats |
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| SF | Rank | Lg Avg | |
| Snaps/Gm | 65.7 | 16 | 65.3 |
| Pace (Sec/Sn) | 20.75 | 1 | 24.28 |
| Run % | 43.7% | 5 | 39.8% |
| Pass % | 56.3% | 28 | 60.2% |
| % Leading | 20.6% | 33 | 36.0% |
Quarterback
With very little competition behind him, Brian Hoyer will be the starter for the foreseeable future. Hoyer comes from Chicago, where he performed well in his brief tenure, throwing for 300 yards in all four games he started and finished and throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions. For those that spot-started Hoyer, he came through and was fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring quarterback during that month. However, it would be unrealistic to expect that same level of production to continue and it was probably more due to the fact that Hoyer attempted an average of 44 passes-per-game during that span. Couple that with the fact that Matt Ryan, Shanahan’s quarterback last year, didn’t throw 44 times in any game last season and it’s even more remote.
It’s more likely that Hoyer will turn in a performance more similar to his 2015 season with Houston, where he was 21st in fantasy scoring during the 11 games he played. He threw for 237 yards per game and had 19 touchdowns to only seven interceptions while facilitating DeAndre Hopkins’ breakout season but that was the extent of it. He should be owned in two-quarterback leagues and could be a decent streamer some weeks but has no QB1 upside.
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Vacated Touches |
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| 2016 Touches | % Vacated | |
| Carries | 397 | 45.6% |
| Targets | 458 | 44.8% |
| Total | 855 | 45.1% |
Running back
Perhaps the one 49er who could be a definite starter on your fantasy team is Carlos Hyde. Other than him, no player with more than one carry last year is on the team anymore. That means the 45.6 percent of carries referenced above are there for the taking. After some initial training camp talk about rookie Joe Williams unseating him, Hyde has silenced the haters to take complete control of the starting job and possibly move into a bell-cow role. He was on the field for nearly all of the first-team snaps this preseason, including third downs where he’s been more involved with the passing game than ever before.
When Hyde is healthy, he’s actually been quite productive. He owns a 4.3 yards-per-carry average for his career and finished in the top-10 in PFF’s elusive rating last year, which takes into account missed tackles. But Hyde has yet to play a full 16-game season, missing a total of 14 games over his first three seasons. His suspect health makes it possible that rookie Matt Breida sees action this season, but he’s not worth handcuffing this early.
Another name in the 49ers backfield to watch (in PPR leagues) is fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Signed to a big deal in the offseason, Juszczyk was PFF’s top-rated fullback and top blocker last season. But the number that sticks out for fantasy players is his 37 receptions, good for 21st among all running backs. Depending on roster size, Juszczyk is a name a monitor on the waiver wire of PPR leagues.
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Rushing Stats |
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| SF | Rank | Lg Avg | |
| YPC | 4.40 | 11 | 4.18 |
| YCo/Att | 2.43 | 17 | 2.43 |
| YBCo/Att | 1.97 | 8 | 1.76 |
| Inside Zone | 62.3% | 1 | 26.0% |
| Outside Zone | 8.7% | 31 | 27.7% |
| Power | 0.9% | 32 | 9.5% |
| Man | 9.8% | 10 | 15.0% |
Wide receiver
After a rather uninspiring receiver corps in 2016, the 49ers made it a point in free agency to get fresh blood by signing veterans Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, and Aldrick Robinson. The group is led by Garcon, who was PFF’s eighth-highest-graded receiver last year on his way to being the 22nd-best fantasy receiver in PPR leagues. He should be the only one with any consistent fantasy production and should pick up most of the 227 targets vacated by 49ers receivers who are no longer with the team. There’s simply not enough volume left to make Goodwin, Robinson, or any other 49ers receiver relevant.
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Wide Receiver Sets |
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| % | Rank | Lg Avg | Throw% | Rk | Lg Avg | |
| 2-Wide | 19.1% | 24 | 24.5% | 32.3% | 31 | 45.0% |
| 3-Wide | 67.0% | 5 | 55.5% | 55.7% | 31 | 66.1% |
| 4-Wide | 1.4% | 14 | 2.9% | 66.7% | 23 | 81.6% |
Tight end
After the trade of tight end Vance McDonald, the 49ers have a wide open competition at the position. There’s fifth-round rookie George Kittle, widely expected to see the most receiving work of the group. There’s also veterans Garrett Celek, and Logan Paulsen, who look a lot safer to make the team now that McDonald is in Pittsburgh.
But whoever wins the battle won’t offer much fantasy upside. As my colleague Scott Barrett has noted, Kyle Shanahan has traditionally been in the middle of the pack when it comes to targeting his top tight end, doing so just 14.3 percent of the time. Even last year, when Shanahan led the Falcons to be the top-scoring offense in the NFL, no Atlanta tight end finished higher than 35th in fantasy scoring.
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Personnel Groupings |
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| % | Rank | Lg Avg | Throw% | Rk | Lg Avg | |
| 11 | 65.7% | 6 | 53.5% | 55.6% | 31 | 33.5% |
| 12 | 18.6% | 8 | 15.6% | 31.8% | 30 | 50.2% |
| 21 | 0.3% | 26 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 32 | 62.5% |
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