• Atlanta Falcons finally get the QB1 they’ve been looking for: In related news, Kyle Pitts and Drake London fantasy managers rejoice.
• The fantasy fallout of the Jerry Jeudy trade: What is the expectation for Jeudy with the Cleveland Browns? Can Marvin Mims step up for the Denver Broncos?
• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.
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The “legal tampering period” opened up on Monday, which allowed for an explosion of NFL news as players agreed to terms with multiple new teams throughout the league. The running back market, specifically, created many new homes for some of our favorite fantasy assets, creating questions and value changes in their expected new roles.
Listed below are all the key moves from this past week and the first wave of free agency with initial thoughts on how these changes will affect player’s fantasy values in 2024.
Saquon Barkley joins the Philadelphia Eagles
- Fantasy value: Top-12 RB
Prior to free agency, when thinking about ideal landing spots for pending free agents, the Philadelphia Eagles signing Barkley made a lot of sense when considering general manager Howie Roseman’s ability to bring in star players. Barkley brings versatility to the running back position that the Eagles have lacked over the past couple of seasons between Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift. When healthy, Barkley can fill multiple roles within the Eagles offense and allow the team to spend resources on other positions.
Expect Barkley to continue in his workhorse role in Philadelphia, coming off of back-to-back seasons with at least 250 carries and 50 targets. He’ll be the primary back, though he’ll contend with touches throughout the rest of the Eagles offense, including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and even Jalen Hurts, specifically around the goal-line. Barkley should still be considered in that RB1 territory for fantasy football.
Austin Ekeler to the Washington Commanders
- Fantasy value: Low-end RB2
It’s going to be difficult getting excited about Ekeler regardless of where he landed in free agency considering the supreme disappointment that was his 2023 season. However, that also leaves room for improvement and an opportunity to reset expectations of what Ekeler could be behind a better offensive line while being healthier than he was in his final year with the Los Angeles Chargers. While health is never a guarantee for the running back position, especially one about to turn 29 years old, Ekeler is only one full season removed from finishing as the PPR RB1 in 2022.
Brian Robinson should continue to get touches, as he performed better than Ekeler last season, albeit on different teams, which should limit the workhorse upside for Ekeler. The $4.1M AAV contract for Ekeler also doesn’t necessitate a significant workload either so if he continues to be as inefficient as he was in 2023 and on that path of career-low rushing metrics, there shouldn’t be reason for the team to hesitate leaning more toward Robinson if they feel he’s an upgrade over their newly signed free agent.
Austin Ekeler’s career-low season (2023) and RB ranks:
| Metric | Value | RB rank |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 | T-53rd |
| Rushing grade | 65.1 | 55th |
| Yards after contact/attempt | 2.64 | 48th |
| Missed tackles forced/attempt | 0.17 | T-35th |
| Rushing first down/touchdown rate | 19.0% | 46th |
D’Andre Swift signs with the Chicago Bears
- Fantasy value: Low-end RB2/High-end RB3
With Swift landing in Chicago, not only do Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson get significant competition for touches in the backfield, but that offensive philosophy from last season of a running-back-by-committee approach could hurt all three values. When all of Chicago's backs were healthy last season, there wasn’t a back who cracked 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. While Swift should be expected to lead the group on a weekly basis, head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron showed a commitment to using multiple backs throughout a game, which is expected to hurt all values. Johnson perhaps draws the shortest straw here as last season’s lead receiving back, the redundancy with Swift is likely to limit his opportunities even further.
Gus Edwards fills a need with the Los Angeles Chargers
- Fantasy value: Weekly RB2
Edwards delivered an impressive 13 rushing touchdowns last regular season and continued to be an effective back when given touches. Edwards has yet to post below 4.0 yards per carry in a season, nor has he finished with a PFF rushing grade below 75.0, which is a nice consistent bar to rely upon, as he should be expected to lead this Chargers backfield as things currently stand. While it’s still early in the offseason and the team can still add, potentially in the draft, Edwards is in a great spot to be a reliable fantasy starter on a weekly basis.
Josh Jacobs signs with the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Jones is released
- Fantasy value: Top-12 RB
Initially, when Jacobs signed with the Packers, it didn’t feel great for fantasy purposes considering that Aaron Jones was still on the roster. That feeling lasted about an hour before Jones was promptly released after contract negotiations seemingly reached a dead-end. With Jones out of the way, Jacobs is in a great position to recoup a lot of the fantasy value he lost this past season in a down year.
This past season saw Jacobs set new career-lows in yards per carry (3.5), rushing touchdowns (six), rushing yards (805) and PFF rushing grade (70.1), though he did deal with injuries throughout and is just one year removed from setting career-highs in all of those previous rushing categories. Still just 26 years old and potentially fully healthy, this offense should allow Jacobs to thrive and deliver the type of fantasy production closer to his 2022 season when he finished as the PPR RB3. Getting usage in the passing game will be a significant help to Jacobs as well, and with Jordan Love at quarterback, there will be potential there as he ranked fourth in the league in pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage (121) this past season.
Aaron Jones jumps ship to the Minnesota Vikings
- Fantasy value: High-end RB2
Jones is on the older side for running backs (29 years old) but lands in a position where he should command the majority of touches out of the backfield on an offense that could struggle to move the ball through the air. Jones is going to be relied upon to help move the ball for this Vikings team post-Kirk Cousins, along with some great receiving weapons, which should still keep the offense functional and in a position to succeed for fantasy purposes.
Even at 29 years old, Jones finished the 2023 season strong, posting five straight games with over 100 rushing yards, including the playoffs, and averaging 4.8 yards per carry, a top-10 mark for the entire season. Ty Chandler is currently the closest competition for backfield touches on the Vikings roster, but he doesn’t bring nearly the same rushing pedigree as Jones, who fantasy managers should still expect to be very relevant in 2024.
Zack Moss replaces Joe Mixon on the Cincinnati Bengals
- Fantasy value: Weekly RB2
The Bengals have relied heavily on Joe Mixon since he was drafted and for most of the 2023 season, though it became clear later in the year that they were going to be going a different route in their backfield for the future. Chase Brown started to eat into Mixon’s usage in the latter half of the season once it was clear the Bengals weren’t in playoff contention, signifying that they wanted to see who else could contribute to this run game down the line with Mixon no longer in the long-term plans.
Zack Moss got his opportunities to shine as a lead back with the Colts in 2023 while Jonathan Taylor was out, and he proved capable of handling a larger workload on a regular basis. In eight games where Moss received double-digit carries in 2023, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry and 81 rushing yards per game while adding four rushing touchdowns. While the Bengals' run-blocking unit isn’t going to be as strong as what Moss got in Indianapolis, the workload itself, on a better offense, should allow for consistent fantasy production on a weekly basis.
Joe Mixon gets traded to the Houston Texans
- Fantasy value: High-end RB2
There weren’t many better backfields for Mixon to land after being released by the Bengals, but there were certainly two in the state of Texas that would be ideal, and he found his way to one of them, which is great for maintaining his fantasy value. Mixon has proven he can be a workhorse running back in the NFL, and even into recent years, averaging 288 carries and 70 targets per season since 2021. The volume that he has handled over the last three seasons has allowed him to deliver top-12 PPR points per game for the position in each of those seasons and should continue to see those opportunities in Houston on an ascending offense. This was the ideal scenario for Mixon after being replaced in Cincinnati, and he should continue to be that high-end RB2 with RB1 upside on a weekly basis.
Devin Singletary gets a chance to lead the New York Giants backfield
- Fantasy value: Weekly RB2
Singletary has been an effective fantasy starter whenever he’s been given the opportunity, and he should get plenty of opportunities with the Giants. Through his first five years in the league, Singletary has carried the ball 10 or more times in a game 44 times, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in those games. That would be about top-15 efficiency as a runner for a full season, and there’s no reason to be concerned about him not getting that many touches right now when looking at the Giants backfield.
Tony Pollard signs a three-year deal with the Tennessee Titans
- Fantasy value: High-end RB2
Expectations were high for Pollard in his first year leading the Dallas Cowboys backfield with Ezekiel Elliott out, but 2023 got off to a really slow start as he was recovering from a broken leg and failed to deliver on the fantasy investment most had made in him this past offseason. As Pollard got healthy, he got better, putting together a much better stretch of play from Week 11-on, as he was the RB13 in PPR over that span. Pollard is likely to share some of the receiving work with Tyjae Spears on his new team, but shouldn’t have a problem being an every-week starter for fantasy purposes.
NEW Tennessee Titans running back TONY POLLARD's 2023 season splits coming off a broken leg, per @PFF:
Weeks 1-10:
Rushing grade: 65.8 (39th)
Yards after contact/attempt: 2.7 (T-29th)
MTF/attempt: 0.09 (T-45th)
1st down/TD rate: 20.0% (T-28th)Week 11-18:
Rushing grade: 90.8…— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) March 11, 2024
The Atlanta Falcons lock up Kirk Cousins for four years
- Fantasy value: Mid/high-end QB2 (when healthy)
Another perfect match for fantasy purposes, as covered here, most importantly due to the significant upgrade at quarterback for Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Both Pitts and London suffered from a lot of inaccuracy on their targets over the past two seasons, but shouldn’t have similar issues plaguing them in 2024 once Cousins is at the helm.
Over the past two seasons, Kyle Pitts and Drake London have ranked bottom-8 at their position in catchable target rate, per @PFF.
LONDON (WR – min. 75 TGTs)
2022: 68.4% (46/53)
2023: 67.9% (48/54)PITTS (TE – min. 15 TGTs)
2022: 58.9% (68/69)
2023: 69.8% (63/68)KIRK COUSINS…
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) March 11, 2024
With Cousins locked up, there is a lot more safety in betting on the talent of London and Pitts in fantasy drafts this offseason. And for Bijan Robinson as well, who isn’t going to lose rushing touches to his quarterback. For Cousins himself, he was leaving one of the more talented receiving corps in the league which helped him maintain decent fantasy value, and he should continue to get help in that regard with Atlanta’s offensive weapons.
Russell Wilson signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers
- Fantasy value: Mid-range QB2
The Steelers seemed pretty set on moving away from Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback heading into 2024, and while Wilson is likely an upgrade based on his experience and what he’s accomplished in the NFL, it might only be a minor upgrade at this point in his career.
Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will continue to be the team's top targets, though their fantasy values really don’t get a significant boost here after seeing how little Jerry Jeudy was able to accomplish with Wilson at the helm. However, Courtland Sutton set a new career-high in touchdowns (10) last season, with six coming from those intermediate areas. Sutton saw a 44.8% target rate in that area of the field where Diontae Johnson was also at his best. Johnson saw a 46.7% target rate and earned a 90.3 PFF receiving grade on those intermediate targets where he could benefit from this pairing as the primary target-earner under Wilson.
Jerry Jeudy gets traded to the Cleveland Browns
- Fantasy value: WR3 at best
Jeudy hasn’t quite lived up to his strong first-round draft capital back in 2020, failing to hit 1,000 receiving yards in each of his four NFL seasons. He’ll get a fresh start with the Browns but will have to contend with a much better, albeit older wide receiver, in Amari Cooper for targets. Cooper has commanded 126 and 127 targets, respectively, in his two seasons with the Browns, hitting over 1,100 yards each year as well. Jeudy should be expected to be the WR2 on the team, which is likely to hurt Elijah Moore’s value more than anyone.
Moore was able to crack 100 targets in his first season with the Browns, though it didn’t result in much fantasy relevance, as he failed to crack the top-50 wide receivers at his position in PPR points per game (7.8) and finished the year (Weeks 1-17) as PPR WR48. With David Njoku also emerging as a favorite receiving weapon in Cleveland, leading the team with 131 targets, there may only be so many targets to go around for Jeudy and Moore to create too much excitement for fantasy purposes, keeping them in WR3 range at best. For Deshaun Watson, the team continues to add pieces for him to thrive, but there haven’t been many encouraging signs thus far that he’ll get back to his 2020 form. 2024 will be his best chance to do so.
In Denver, Jeudy’s absence on the team creates an opening for second-year wide receiver Marvin Mims, who was arguably the best deep threat of the 2023 rookie class. He wasn’t able to provide much consistency as a rookie due to being stuck behind Jeudy on the depth chart and playing a similar role, but now, there should be a greater opportunity for him to contribute on a weekly basis and provide more fantasy value — though, the quarterback position is currently a huge question mark.
WR Michael Pittman Jr. extends with the Indianapolis Colts
- Fantasy value: High-end WR2
After designating the team franchise tag to Pittman, the Colts worked on an extension and got him locked up on a three-year deal, solidifying his spot as the team’s top wide receiver. Pittman is coming off a career year in 2023, finishing as the PPR WR13 and delivering 15.6 points per game. Not only did Pittman have a career-best fantasy season but his 150 targets, 80.0 PFF receiving grade, and 2.04 yards per route run were all new career-highs for him as well.
Entering his fifth season, Pittman should be in position for another top-20 wide receiver season in Indianapolis, which should be the range for where he’s drafted again this season. While Josh Downs emerged as a reliable secondary target as a rookie, he should continue to be just that behind Pittman, who commanded an elite 26.6% target rate this past year, a top-10 mark in the league. Pittman managed just four receiving touchdowns this past season, which is a number that would hopefully improve next season, and among players with at least 140 targets, only he, Evan Engram (four), and Garrett Wilson (three) had fewer than five touchdowns for the year with the average being over seven touchdowns for the group.
Michael Pittman’s numbers and wide receiver ranks in 2023:
| Metric | Value | WR Rank |
| Yards per route run | 2.04 | T-23rd |
| Receiving grade | 80.0 | T-22nd |
| Target rate | 26.6% | T-9th |
| Total targets | 150 | 9th |
| Total receptions | 109 | 4th |
Gabe Davis signs with the Jacksonville Jaguars
- Fantasy value: Boom/bust WR3
The Jaguars add a much-needed deep threat to the roster, as it appears Calvin Ridley is unlikely to return to the team. Ridley led the team with 32 deep targets in 2023, which was more than double the next closest player on the team, Christian Kirk (15). Davis has been used almost primarily as a deep-threat wide receiver over the past few seasons, including last year when 32 of his 78 targets (41%) came 20 or more yards downfield. Outside of the hitch route. Since entering the league in 2020, 26% of Davis’ routes run have been go routes, accounting for 20% of his targets in the NFL.
Davis’ lack of diversity in his route tree could allow for a larger focus and target share to Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Davis has been a very difficult wide receiver to trust for fantasy purposes and is likely to continue in his boom/bust role with the Jaguars.
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