• Fantasy tight ends almost need to be every down: Part of Kyle Pitts's struggle last season was due to his role, but that should change this season.
• Alignment in two tight end sets matters: A tight end who lines up off the line of scrimmage tends to score more fantasy points than those lining up on the line.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Over the last week, I dug into how teams utilized their running backs and wide receivers along with the implications for fantasy football. To finish the series, I’ll look at tight ends, how teams are using them, what roles lead to the best fantasy production and what this means for the position in 2024.
Defining the receivers
For this article, I’ve broken a tight end’s role down by their early down role in single tight end sets, late down role in single tight end sets and role in two tight end sets. Breaking it down by 11 and 21 personnel was considered, but a tight end playing in 21 personnel sets specifically didn’t matter. Plenty of teams take their top tight end out of 21 personnel to give them a rest. If a starting tight end plays in 21 personnel, that will typically mean they get taken out on other plays that would matter more. On the flip side, more teams have used a primary tight end on early downs while using a different one on third downs.
Often in two tight end sets, one tight end is on the line of scrimmage and the other is off. Similarly to how I broke down wide receivers into an X, Z and S role, I’ve given the player typically on the line of scrimmage the Y role and the person off the line of scrimmage U. The U receiver has a 20.3% target rate in 12 personnel compared to 16.0% for Y in 2023, leading to 1.47 yards per route run compared to 1.25.
Below is the fantasy production by tight ends for the most common combination of relevant roles since 2014. There are plenty of frequent combinations of tight ends further on the depth chart which don’t have consistent fantasy value.
There was a noteworthy difference between every down tight ends who play the U role in two tight end sets compared to those who play the Y. Most teams have a starter and then a backup who plays in two receiver sets and, unsurprisingly, those backups rarely are fantasy starters. When they are, it’s often because of an unpredictable touchdown.
The other common scenario is to have a more pass-heavy tight end who plays on third downs and the U role in addition to a more run-heavy tight end who plays on early downs and the Y role. There is a significant dropoff between a full-time starter and the receiving tight end in this role. Compared to full-time starters with the U role, those without the lead role on early downs drop three PPR points per game and are nearly half as likely to be in the top six or top 12 in a given week.
Can you pick a tight end without a full-time role?
The short answer is probably not. Since 2014, there have been seven tight ends in the past decade without a lead role who ended up as a fantasy starter at least 35% of weeks, the rate of the average lead tight end. No tight end has accomplished this in the last three seasons.
Most tight ends who worked out fit one of these categories, a second-year tight end in a breakout year (Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews) or a Buccaneers tight end during the Dirk Koetter era (Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard) Dwayne Allen also accomplished this in 2014 and Jonnu Smith in 2020.
The good news is that no tight end who is expected to have a part-time role has an ADP in the top 200 outside of Isaiah Likely, who is more of a handcuff for Mark Andrews than someone to draft and expect production out of.
Most of the time, it’s not clear which tight ends won’t have a full-time role until the preseason. One of the most useful parts of the preseason is finding what the tight end rotation for teams will be like. It only took one preseason game last season to get excited about Sam LaPorta and concerned about Greg Dulcich. The following week raised red flags on Kyle Pitts and there were similar red flags on Hayden Hurst during the final week of the preseason last year.
Notes for the 2024 season
- The majority of good fantasy tight ends were every down tight ends and had the U role in two tight end sets. This included Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson, T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Logan Thomas and Adam Trautman.
- A few tight ends were lead tight ends and were primary Y tight ends in two tight end sets. This includes George Kittle, David Njoku, Dallas Goedert, Luke Musgrave, Cade Otton and Tyler Higbee.
- A few tight ends were lead tight ends and were mostly inconsistent in which role they had in two tight end sets. That included Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Pat Freiermuth.
- The only teams that didn’t have an every down tight end for at least six games were the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons.
- Three of those four teams are expected to have a committee approach again, but the Falcons switching to Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator should lead to Kyle Pitts having more games as an every down tight end, which should be helpful for his fantasy value.
- In contrast, the Steelers gaining Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator could be a concern for Pat Freiermuth. Pittsburgh invested a third-round pick in Darnell Washington a year ago, has Connor Heyward on the roster, and brought in MyCole Pruitt, who has worked with Smith with both the Tennessee Titans and Falcons.
- Two other tight ends who could have a lead role more often this season are Hunter Henry and Noah Fant. Both teams changed offensive coordinators and lost their second and third-string tight ends in free agency, and both teams didn’t have an every down tight end for the majority of their games.
- There is a chance Goedert might move from Y to U in two tight end sets after the addition of C.J. Uzomah, who at this point of his career is more of a run-blocking tight end, and will likely be their TE2.
- In contrast, Cole Kmet might spend more time at Y this season after the addition of Gerald Everett. Kmet would likely be the U when he’s paired with Marcedes Lewis, but Everett has always been a receiving tight end only, which will likely hurt Kmet’s fantasy value.
- The Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders are three teams outside of the Ravens, who have two tight ends with an ADP in the top 230. Their tight end rotations will be the ones to follow most closely during training camp and the preseason.
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