Week 5 Fantasy football predictions: The week's sleepers and busts

Who are the biggest fantasy football sleepers and busts for Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season? We use advanced matchup analysis to bring you a list of players who will overperform (sleepers) or underperform (busts) their typical production.

Below are some of the top sleepers and busts for Week 5.

Week 5 fantasy football sleepers

Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles with Leonard Fournette: 219 yards per game, 1.27 TDs per game, 1 INT per game
Bortles without Fournette: 289 yards per game, 1.8 TDs per game, 0.2 INTs per game

Fournette is out this week, and the Jaguars play the Chiefs, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Alex Smith, QB, Washington Redskins

Smith draws the Saints Monday night. New Orleans has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the year and the most fantasy points per dropback (0.70). For comparison, that’s the same amount of fantasy points per dropback scored by Cam Newton (0.70), Jared Goff (0.71), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.71) so far this year.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Henry has been Tennessee’s lead rushing back, with 54 attempts to Dion Lewis’ 43. The Titans draw the Bills in Week 4, who have given up the third-most fantasy points per touch to enemy backs so far this year.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

It was an even split between Jones (11 attempts) and Jamaal Williams (11 attempts) in Week 4, but Jones thoroughly outplayed Williams, averaging 5.9 YPC to Williams’ 2.5 while forcing six missed tackles (Williams didn’t force any). Jones also collected a goal-line TD. Up next are the Lions, who have given up a league-high 631 rushing yards to running backs so far this year, including over 175 yards in three of four games.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

With Fournette out of the lineup in Weeks 2-3, Yeldon produced tail-end RB2 numbers while averaging 6.0 YPC. Last season, Yeldon was also a tail-end RB2 while Fournette was out (with a 7.0 YPC average).

Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans

Coutee has his breakout game last week, catching 11 of 14 targets for 109 yards. Coutee draws the Cowboys in Week 4, and fellow slot man Golden Tate just tore the Dallas secondary apart with 8 catches, 132 yards, and two scores.

Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins

Crowder has been quiet this year, but his breakout week has finally arrived, as he will primarily draw the burnable P.J. Williams in coverage against the Saints. Crowder has the sixth-best individual WR/CB matchup of the week.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Atlanta Falcons

With all eyes on Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Sanu is flying under the radar. But he draws Pittsburgh slot corner Cameron Sutton in coverage this week. Sutton has ceded 12 catches for 210 yards and three scores through four weeks.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

With C.J. Beathard under center last week, Kittle paced the 49ers in targets (8), receptions (6), yards (125), and touchdowns (1). The Cardinals have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per target to enemy tight ends this year.

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers have given up the most fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends this year, and Seals-Jones has big-play ability, with a 9.3-yard average depth of target on the year, making him the team’s primary “stretch the field” option. (J.J. Nelson and Chad Williams both have higher aDOTs, but both players also have fewer than three receptions.)

Week 5 fantasy football busts

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback every week this year, so it’s hard to bench him, but the matchup is literally as hard as it gets against the Jaguars, who have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year and the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Cousins draws the Eagles in Week 5, who have been an up-and-down passing defense this year, holding Matt Ryan to 251 scoreless yards (on 43 attempts) in Week 1 and Andrew Luck to 164 yards and a score (on 41 attempts) in Week 3, while also giving up 402 yards and 4 TDs to Ryan Fitzpatrick and 344 yards and 2 TDs to Marcus Mariota.

The common thread: The Eagles stymied passing attacks at home in Philly, which is where this contest takes place.

Carlos Hyde, RB, Cleveland Browns

Hyde leads the league in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns, but his Week 5 tilt against the Ravens is tough, as Baltimore has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, including just one rushing touchdown ceded on the year.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

The Jaguars have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per touch to the position. No backfield has topped 85 yards — or scored a touchdown — on the Jaguars since Saquon Barkley did it in Week 1 (thanks mostly to a 68-yard touchdown scamper).

Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Ajayi faces a Vikings defense that has held all opposing running backs out of the end zone (on the ground) so far this year. Dating back to the start of 2017, only one running back has topped 100 yards against the Vikings (Jonathan Stewart, Week 14 of last year).

Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns

Landry’s hype train is riding high, but Baker Mayfield did a great job of spreading the ball around in his debut, with five Browns pass-catchers seeing at least five targets, and six different players finishing with between 34-61 yards.

Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Garcon has one of the toughest individual matchups of the week against Patrick Peterson (even though we don’t expect a full shadow situation). Garcon did see the second-most targets last week with Beathard under center — which is good news for Garcon’s rest-of-season outlook — but this is an obvious downgrade against one of the best corners in the league.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

The Eagles have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year, and excluding a 75-yard touchdown given up to O.J. Howard in Week 2, the Eagles have given up just 85 yards to opposing tight ends through four weeks.

Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills

The Titans have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends this year, while Clay remains in a four-way battle for targets in Buffalo with Clay, Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Zay Jones all seeing even work with Josh Allen under center.

The best matchups

Below is a list showing how each team fares on a per-touch or per-target basis. This list will be updated weekly and can be used to identify strong matchups.

Fantasy Points Per Touch (FP/T), Points Per Target (PPT), and Points Per Dropback (PPDB) Given Up
Team	QB: PPDB	RB: FP/T	WR: PPT	TE: PPT
ARZ	0.39 (6)	1.01 (25)	1.62 (4)	2.31 (27)
ATL	0.56 (27)	1.09 (29)	2.03 (25)	1.53 (7)
BLT	0.31 (1)	0.63 (2)	1.51 (3)	1.56 (8)
BUF	0.46 (15)	1.18 (30)	1.76 (13)	1.81 (17)
CAR	0.50 (20)	0.92 (20)	1.81 (14)	2.48 (30)
CHI	0.44 (12)	0.56 (1)	1.99 (24)	1.84 (18)
CIN	0.55 (26)	0.86 (17)	1.76 (12)	2.14 (24)
CLV	0.39 (7)	0.84 (15)	1.71 (8)	1.81 (16)
DAL	0.49 (19)	0.80 (11)	2.07 (27)	1.85 (19)
DEN	0.47 (16)	0.94 (21)	1.73 (9)	2.23 (26)
DET	0.51 (22)	1.08 (28)	1.82 (15)	2.19 (25)
GB	0.45 (13)	0.83 (13)	1.95 (21)	1.71 (13)
HST	0.53 (24)	0.80 (9)	1.87 (18)	2.40 (29)
IND	0.43 (11)	0.81 (12)	1.99 (23)	1.76 (15)
JAX	0.32 (3)	0.70 (5)	1.48 (1)	1.68 (10)
KC	0.50 (21)	1.26 (32)	1.50 (2)	2.33 (28)
LAC	0.59 (28)	0.85 (16)	2.51 (31)	1.69 (11)
LAR	0.39 (5)	0.86 (18)	1.98 (22)	1.70 (12)
MIA	0.37 (4)	0.98 (23)	1.69 (7)	1.29 (1)
MIN	0.63 (30)	0.70 (4)	2.09 (29)	2.03 (21)
NE	0.47 (17)	0.83 (14)	1.85 (17)	1.45 (5)
NO	0.70 (32)	0.80 (10)	2.71 (32)	1.39 (3)
NYG	0.46 (14)	1.07 (27)	1.82 (16)	1.65 (9)
NYJ	0.40 (8)	0.89 (19)	1.74 (11)	1.88 (20)
OAK	0.55 (25)	1.05 (26)	1.88 (19)	2.03 (22)
PHI	0.49 (18)	0.75 (8)	1.89 (20)	1.48 (6)
PIT	0.62 (29)	0.71 (6)	2.05 (26)	2.05 (23)
SEA	0.42 (9)	0.75 (7)	1.65 (5)	1.73 (14)
SF	0.52 (23)	0.98 (24)	1.73 (10)	2.65 (32)
TB	0.69 (31)	1.22 (31)	2.38 (30)	2.60 (31)
TEN	0.43 (10)	0.67 (3)	2.07 (28)	1.42 (4)
WAS	0.32 (2)	0.98 (22)	1.68 (6)	1.36 (2)

(READ MORE: Playing DFS? Check out our Week 5 cash game advice for FanDuel and DraftKings)