Fantasy Football: The safest pick in each round of drafts

• Nick Chubb‘s consistency: There arguably hasn’t been a more reliable running back over the past few seasons, and 2023 could potentially be his best year yet.

• Coming off a down year and still elite: Justin Herbert’s 2022 season was considered subpar compared to his norm, and he still finished second in the league in total passing yards.

• An every-down back in the sixth round: James Conner is a great player to bet on who is going outside the first five rounds of drafts.

Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

With fantasy football draft season in full swing, and with average draft positions starting to solidify during the preseason, there is a wide range of outcomes for a number of different fantasy options for 2023. However, we may only sometimes want to take the risk on certain players, especially in the earlier rounds of drafts. 

Going round by round, we’ll identify the players with the safest range of outcomes, assuming good health, that drafters may want to target to secure some of the more reliable production floors for 2023.

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Round 1: WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Consensus ADP: 3.0 (WR2)

Chase is currently going as the second wide receiver off the board in drafts, and while Justin Jefferson — last year’s WR1 — is also a very safe bet to make in the first round, he is the consensus 1.01 this year. Chase, meanwhile, finished the season as the overall PPR WR11, which he accomplished while missing five games. Chase averaged more than 20 PPR points per game last season and returns to the same high-powered offense with Joe Burrow under center for 2023.

Chase led the Bengals last season in overall target rate (24.5%) and red-zone target rate (27.8%). He should be in line to do so again this season, even with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd getting their share of looks in this offense. Burrow has shown a tendency to go to Chase, doing so as accurately and as often as any tandem in the league. In 2022, Burrow threw 28.5 catchable passes per game, which was more than any other quarterback who has a receiver getting drafted within the first round of fantasy drafts. The best part is that Chase and Burrow can be even better in 2023.