Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 16 Recap
- WR5 Deebo Samuel: 25.1PPR Points
- WR8 A.J. Brown: 23.7
- WR10 Tank Dell: 21.8
- WR11 Kayshon Boutte: 20.5
- WR18 Calvin Ridley: 16.8
- WR21 Zay Flowers: 15.3
- WR24 DK Metcalf: 14.7
- WR59 Joshua Palmer: 7.1
- WR65 Cooper Kupp: 5.4
- WR78 Romeo Doubs: 4.0
- WR92 Christian Watson: 2.3
Week 16 proved to be one of the model’s most successful weeks. It accurately identified four WR1s (top 12) and seven WR2s (top 24), showcasing its ability to pinpoint high-performing wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel, who has been a consistent presence on the model’s radar, finally delivered a breakout performance. Similarly, Kayshon Boutte, another regular highlight, lived up to his potential with a standout showing.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 17
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
Courtland Sutton faces a tough matchup against the Bengals, who run the NFL’s second-highest rate of middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) coverage and the fourth-highest rate of showing MOFO before sticking with it. Sutton’s production has struggled against such looks, with his PFF grade dropping to 60.5 and his targets per route run decreasing to 18.4%. This matchup could significantly limit Sutton’s output in fantasy championship weekend.
Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, consistent standouts on the PWOPR model, face the Saints, who run the NFL’s 10th-highest rate of MOFO. However, the Saints’ splits between MOFO and middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) coverage are not drastic. Despite a bottom-10 PFF coverage grade, the Saints boast the league’s sixth-best pass rush grade over the past month and allow single coverage at an average rate. This matchup is fairly neutral for both Meyers and Tucker.
Jalen Coker, dealing with lingering injuries, faces the Buccaneers after a quiet Week 16. Tampa runs the NFL’s highest rate of MOFC and the sixth-highest rate of showing MOFC before sticking with it. Coker has excelled against these looks, earning a 77.7 PFF receiving grade since Week 8. Tampa also brings the league’s second-highest blitz rate, but Coker’s grade remains consistent at 69.1 against such pressure. This sets up a favorable matchup for Coker.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has an average matchup against the Rams, who deploy MOFO and MOFC coverage at typical rates and rank 15th in PFF team coverage grade. While the Rams don’t present a significant edge or disadvantage, Harrison’s talent and reliability make him a strong play despite the neutral conditions.
Michael Pittman Jr. matches up against the Giants, who run the NFL’s seventh-highest rate of MOFC. Pittman’s PFF grade and THREAT remain steady across all situations, but the Giants’ 31st-ranked PFF team coverage grade provides a clear weakness for the Colts to exploit. Pittman has a strong opportunity for a productive outing in this matchup.
Joshua Palmer, a frequent mention in both this and the “Coach, I Was Open” models, faces the Patriots, who run the NFL’s eighth-highest rate of showing and playing MOFC. Palmer’s PFF grade improves from 68.0 to 71.1 in MOFC situations, while his THREAT increases from 16.5% to 18.8%. Although the Patriots rank seventh in team coverage grade over the past month, Palmer’s situational improvement makes him a solid option for fantasy championship weekend.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several are well-positioned to exceed their recent average PPR, with a few potentially delivering explosive performances.
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