Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 15 Recap
- WR5 DeVonta Smith: 28.0 PPR Points – did better than his average
- WR8 A.J. Brown: 25.0 – did better than his average
- WR25 Quentin Johnston: 15.5 – did better than his average
- WR27 Garrett Wilson: 14.6 – did better than his average
- WR41 Calvin Ridley: 9.0
- WR44 Christian Watson: 8.6
- WR60 DK Metcalf: 5.8
- WR65 Deebo Samuel: 4.9
- WR71 Dontayvion Wicks: 3.4
- WR74 Joshua Palmer: 3.0
- WR75 Xavier Legette: 2.9
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both had excellent games this past week — impressive calls by the model. Overall, the model had a bit of a down week, but with two top-10 identifications, the results were still positive.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 16
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
A.J. Brown: Brown shows up on the list again after a solid performance in Week 15. Brown’s PWOPR ranks fifth among all NFL players. Players with a PWOPR as high as his often score around 18 PPR points per game, and Brown has been averaging less than that over the past three weeks (14.97). He lands a matchup versus the Commanders, who run a top-seven middle-of-field-closed (MOFC) rate in the NFL, which can allow for elite wide receiver performances. The Commanders also have the eighth-worst PFF team coverage grade over the past month. This is an elite matchup for Brown to have a massive performance.
DK Metcalf: Metcalf has a fairly average wide receiver matchup this week. The Vikings own the seventh-highest middle-of-field-open (MOFO) rate, a look that often suppresses outside wide receivers. The Vikings have a middling coverage and pass rush, which is a benefit for Metcalf, but he has only the Seahawks' fourth-best PFF grade against MOFO coverages. This is an OK matchup for Metcalf, but it's nothing to write home about.
Zay Flowers: Rashod Bateman overshadowed Flowers last week, but this week he faces the Steelers, who have the third-highest MOFC rate in the NFL and the fifth-worst team coverage unit by PFF grade. As we saw last week with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, this is a fantastic spot for Ravens wide receivers, as long as Baltimore can mitigate the Steelers' quick pressure (fifth best in the NFL). In contrast to DK Metcalf, Flowers owns the Ravens' best PFF grade versus MOFC coverages, so this is a smash spot for him.
Romeo Doubs/Christian Watson: This duo lands the Saints, who run MOFO at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL, with the fourth-worst quick pressure rate and a middling team PFF coverage grade (13th worst). Both Doubs and Watson lead the Packers in first-read target share and face a team that allows the ninth-most targets to first reads. The entire Packers passing unit could be in for a good day.
Calvin Ridley: Ridley is falling into a production slump, even despite seeing 12 targets two weeks ago. This week, he lands a pretty solid matchup versus the Colts, who run MOFC coverages at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL while having the seventh-worst quick pressure rate but the eighth-best team coverage unit by PFF grade. Ridley has a solid PFF grade versus MOFC coverage (73.4) and leads the Titans in targets, by far, in almost every situation. This is an overall decent matchup for Ridley.
Kayshon Boutte: Boutte shows up on a “regression to the mean” list like this consistently. He is running routes at a high rate (82%-plus since Week 8) and even getting solid targets (5.57 per game since Week 8). The Bills run a solid mix of MOFO and MOFC coverages and have an average quick pressure rate, but they own the fourth-worst team coverage grade. The Patriots will likely be trailing the entire game, which could incite more passing for Drake Maye against a bad unit. In theory, this is a great spot for Boutte to have a breakout game.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp lands the Jets, who run MOFC coverages at the 10th-highest rate, with the third-worst PFF team coverage grade. The biggest worry about Kupp having an explosive game is Puka Nacua doing just the same.
Tank Dell: The second-year wide receiver gets a solid matchup versus the Chiefs, who allow the third-most single coverage situations. Dell, meanwhile, gets the largest boost in targets from single coverage situations among Texans receivers. One issue for Dell could be that the Chiefs run MOFO coverages at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Dell owns a lackluster 55.7 PFF grade versus MOFO.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been on the list for a while now and just cannot seem to break out. This week. He gets to play the Dolphins, who run MOFO coverages at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, have a middling quick pressure rate and own the seventh-worst team PFF coverage grade. Samuel has the third-best PFF grade versus MOFO, albeit far behind that of teammates George Kittle (90.2) and Jauan Jennings (89.3). The Dolphins do generally allow a low average target depth (6.5 yards, third lowest), and Samuel has the 49ers‘ lowest average target depth versus MOFO coverage (5.6). The Dolphins also lead the NFL in missed tackles. This could be a great matchup if the 49ers have a dink-and-dunk game plan.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several are well-positioned to exceed their recent average PPR, with a few potentially delivering explosive performances.
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