Fantasy Football: Rookie running back sleepers

• Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis: Davis is the dark horse candidate to lead Buffalo’s backfield in 2024 rushing touchdowns.

• Philadelphia Eagles running back Will Shipley: Shipley is a perfect fit for Philadelphia’s offensive scheme and notably benefits from the NFL’s new kickoff rules. 

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Identifying fantasy-relevant rookie running backs available outside the top 150 picks in both half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR formats is key in building a robust bench. While these players ideally carry matchup-based, flex-viability, they must also be capable of thriving in spot-start opportunities should the starter miss time. The article below details three rookie running back sleepers found outside the top 150 picks in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats. 

RB Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills fourth-round rookie running back Ray Davis will compete for the primary passing-down, change-of-pace and scoring-position role in Year 1, making him a high-value 2024 rookie running back sleeper. Davis’ 87.9 PFF offense grade ties for eighth among 33 Power Five running backs with at least 425 offensive snaps.

Buffalo’s front office replaced offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with then-quarterbacks coach Joe Brady in Week 11. While the offense lost 1.9 passing attempts per game, it gained 11.4 rushing attempts per game, creating an ideal environment for capable dual-threat running backs. 

Dorsey and Brady’s offensive data among NFL teams:

Buffalo’s since-departed No. 2 running back Latavius Murray, playing in his age-33 season, handled primary passing-down and scoring-position duties under Dorsey and was later replaced by quarterback Josh Allen in the latter role under Brady. Allen totaled 15 green zone rushing attempts and 10 inside-the-five rushing attempts in Weeks 11-Super Bowl LVIII after handling eight and five, respectively, through the first 10 weeks. Despite Allen’s second-half-season green zone successes (66.7% conversion rate), Buffalo’s front office would assuredly prefer a running back to handle at least a plurality of these bruising touches, and starting running back James Cook has proved himself unworthy of the role.

Cook converted just two green zone rushing attempts for first downs and/or touchdowns, both in Week 4. Among 28 NFL running backs with at least 15 green zone rushing attempts, Cook’s 11.1% conversion rate ties for dead last. He totaled 18 such attempts.

Cook was also unable to earn a passing-down role under Brady, with Murray leading the way in both third- and fourth-and-long situations as well as the two-minute drill, with No. 3 journeyman running back Ty Johnson even playing over Cook in the latter department. 

Buffalo running back snaps and touches in Weeks 11-Super Bowl LVIII. No. 4 running back Leonard Fournette (3.9% offensive snap share) is excluded:

Davis worked his way through Temple (2019-2020) and Vanderbilt (2021-2022) before proving himself a high-quality dual-threat player at Kentucky in 2023. 

Davis’ rushing and receiving data among 31 Power Five running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts and among 27 Power Five running backs with at least 30 targets, respectively:

Davis continued his above-average play in scoring position. Among 49 Power Five running backs with at least 15 green zone rushing attempts, Davis’ 15.8% stuff rate ties for 13th while his 52.6% conversion rate ranks eighth. Among 26 Power Five running backs with at least 10 rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line, Davis ties for seventh and third, respectively, in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.15) and conversion rate (69.2%) and his 15.4% stuff rate ranks fourth.

Davis (5-foot-8, 221 pounds, 32.1 body-mass index (BMI)) possesses the requisite size to handle the diminutive Cook’s (5-foot-11, 199 pounds, 27.8 BMI) complementary, high-value role and profiles as a better overall prospect than undrafted free agent (UDFA) Frank Gore Jr. (88.0 PFF offense grade, 5-foot-8, 201 pounds, 30.6 BMI). 

Buffalo’s front office drafted Davis as the heir-apparent for the elite offense’s high-value, fantasy-friendly No. 2 role and his college profile suggests he is well-suited to it, making him a 2024 rookie sleeper running back in both half-PPR and PPR formats. 

RB Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles

Fourth-round rookie running back Will Shipley is a natural fit for the Philadelphia Eagles‘ rushing scheme as a disciplined and explosive inside-zone and run-pass-option (RPO) rusher, a shifty receiver and a talented kickoff returner. He will immediately compete for the No. 2 rushing role, the primary passing-down role and the kickoff return role, the latter of which is now notably relevant given the NFL’s new returner-friendly rule set. Shipley is a 2024 rookie running back sleeper, as he has helpful upside in formats that award points for kickoff return yardage. His 73.2 PFF offense grade ranks 33rd among 33 Power Five running backs with at least 425 offensive snaps.

Philadelphia’s 2023 offense ranks No. 1 among NFL teams in both inside zone rushing rate (42.3%) and regular season inside zone rushing attempts (196), and Shipley compiled one of the Power Five’s best inside zone rushing profiles in his three years at Clemson. Among 30 Power Five running backs with at least 135 inside zone rushing attempts, Shipley ranks top-12 in yards per rushing attempt (5.3), explosive run-play rate (14.8%), yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.3), point-of-attack change rate (7.8%), first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate (36.3%) and total explosive run plays (35), including top-six finishes in the latter three categories. 

Philadelphia (18.7% RPO rate) should continue their high-volume RPO ways with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore running the offense. His 2023 Los Angeles Chargers’ 14.5% RPO rate ranks seventh among NFL teams and their 162 regular season RPO plays rank eighth. Among 54 Power Five running backs with at least 50 RPO rushing attempts in 2023, Shipley’s 3.6 yards after contact per rushing attempt rank 20th, his 6.2 yards per rushing attempt rank 19th and his 21.2% explosive run-play rate rank 11th. 

Shipley’s sharp mental processing, quick footwork and elite agility are evident in both his route running and return-game metrics. 

Among 27 Power Five running backs with at least 30 targets, he ranks 16th in target rate (16.2%), 11th in missed tackles forced per reception (0.26) and fourth in target rate when lined up in the slot pre-snap (6.0%). His 73.7 PFF receiving grade ranks seventh.

Among 61 Power Five returners with at least 35 total returns from 2021-2022, Shipley ranks 13 in average yards per kickoff return (26.0), 11th in missed tackles forced per kickoff return (0.5) and fifth in average offensive starting position (32.8). His 74.5 PFF kickoff return grade ranks 14th. Philadelphia’s 2023 kickoff return, running back Boston Scott (46.4 PFF kickoff return grade), signed with the Los Angeles Rams this offseason, giving Shipley a clear path to the role.

Shipley is a 2024 rookie running back sleeper. 

RB Braelon Allen, New York Jets

New York Jets fourth-round rookie running back Braelon Allen is reportedly separating from his subpar in-house competition, flashing even as a pass-catcher. With former pass-catching specialist Michael Carter now an Arizona Cardinal, Allen has access to a high-volume, dual-threat No. 2 role, making him a 2024 rookie running back sleeper. Allen’s 74.9 PFF offense grade ranks 31st among 33 Power Five running backs with at least 425 offensive snaps.

New York No. 1 running back Breece Hall notably worked on the sidelines during organized team activities (OTAs) after experiencing “lower-body soreness” entering Year 2 post-ACL reconstruction (ACLR) and meniscus trim. Allen would be a high-end must-start, should Hall miss time. Hall’s 82.5 PFF offense grade ranks sixth among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps.

Allen’s mediocre NFL combine showing pushed him down NFL draft boards, perhaps unjustifiably. As detailed in “The Best Rushers in the 2024 NFL Draft,” Allen seized Wisconsin’s starting role at just 17 years old in 2021. Now age 20, Allen’s résumé towers over his teammates. Free agent signee running back Tarik Cohen has yet to record a regular season or playoff snap since injuring his ACL, MCL and tibial plateau in 2020. Second-year running back Israel Abanikanda failed to meaningfully contribute in his 2023 rookie season; his 59.0 PFF offense grade ranks 15th among 19 NFL rookie running backs with at least 25 offensive snaps last year. Fellow second-year running back Xazavian Valladay’s 53.9 PFF preseason offense grade yielded zero regular-season snaps. 

New York’s front office prioritized adding size and experience in the 2024 NFL draft, selecting 6-foot, 218-pound running back Isaiah Davis one round after Allen (6-foot-1, 235 pounds). Davis rushed for 3,032 yards over his last two seasons at South Dakota State but failed to stand out alongside Allen during OTAs. 

As mentioned in the article linked above, Allen’s 2023 season was hampered by an October high-ankle sprain but “[in] his pre-injury, Weeks 1-8 2023 showing, Allen ranked top eight yards per rushing attempt (5.8) and yards after contact per rushing attempt (4.0) and top five in missed tackles forced (40), missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.33), first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate (35.0%) and stuff rate (10.8%).”

Despite the injury, Allen dominated on 19 green zone rushing attempts. Among 49 Power Five running backs with at least 15 green zone rushing attempts, his 77.8 PFF rushing grade, 0.32 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt and 2.5 yards after contact per rushing attempt all rank top five. His 63.2% conversion rate claims the No. 1 overall spot.

Allen demonstrated passing-game reliability as well, although his talents in this regard went unappreciated during the draft process. Among 27 Power Five running backs with at least 30 targets, Allen ranks 17th in missed tackles forced per reception (0.21), ties for 14th in target rate (16.7%) and ranks No. 1 overall in catch rate (93.3%). 

Allen is a high-end 2024 rookie running back sleeper.