Fantasy Football: Riskiest Rounds 1-6 picks in half-PPR and PPR scoring formats

• WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals: Higgins’ poor health and declining play make him a risky bet with in-house competition on the rise.

• RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders: White’s unproven profile and glaring talent deficiencies make him a likely 2024 flop.

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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Fantasy football drafts are chock-full of high-quality NFL players in Rounds 1-6, but some players make for risky picks thanks to poor talent profiles, crowded personnel corps and untenable average draft positions.

This article breaks down three of the riskiest draft picks to make in both half-points-per-reception and PPR scoring formats entering the 2024 NFL season.

WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins was correctly identified as one of five players to fade in 2023, finishing as a Weeks 1-17 back-end WR4 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats. He is available two rounds later as a high-end WR3 in the mid-to-late fifth round this year but remains one of the worst Rounds 1-6 fantasy football draft picks due to declining play, poor health and ascending young teammates. His 72.1 PFF overall grade in 2023 ranked 37th among 80 NFL wide receivers with at least 545 offensive snaps.

Higgins’ play crescendoed in 2021, his second NFL season, before rapidly declining in 2022 and 2023.

The table below reflects Higgins’ full-season receiving data since his 2021 career-best season.

As detailed in “3 Players Who Emerged in Preseason Week 1,” Higgins has suffered five recorded hamstring strains since 2018, an injury that carries a positional 34.0% season-to-season recurrence rate, per doctor of physical therapy Edwin Porras’ Injury Prone Draft Guide and Season Long Playbook. Higgins has also suffered three recorded ankle sprains, one shoulder injury, one fractured rib and one concussion.

Higgins’ (25 years old) availability has suffered despite youth being on his side. Though he suited up for 20 games in 2022, Higgins played 10 or fewer offensive snaps in three contests.

The front office has conclusively demonstrated its unwillingness to commit to Higgins long-term, retaining him for one year via the franchise tag this offseason.

While Higgins prepares to potentially play elsewhere in 2025, Cincinnati’s growing pass-catching corps has several young talents, including slot receiver Andrei Iosivas, profiled extensively in “Three players who emerged in preseason Week 1,” and third-round rookie wide receiver Jermaine Burton.

Higgins has fared well in the preseason thus far, earning a wide receiver corps-high 77.2 PFF receiving grade, but Iosivas (76.2 PFF preseason-receiving grade) and Burton (77.0) are hot on his heels. Among 137 Power Five wide receivers with at least 55 targets in 2023, Burton’s 2.75 yards per route run tied for 15th.

Higgins is one of the riskiest Rounds 1-6 fantasy football draft picks.

RB D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

Swift enters the 2024 fantasy football season via a mid-sixth-round, RB22 half-PPR ADP and an early-sixth-round, RB20 PPR ADP. He will have difficulty returning value at those draft costs, given his moderate production profile and run-centric committee-lead role, making him one of the worst Rounds 1-6 fantasy football draft picks. Swift’s 66.9 PFF overall grade in 2023 tied for 32nd among 37 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps in 2023.

As detailed in “Ambiguous backfields to target in 2024,” incumbent Chicago running backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson both outplayed Swift in their respective roles last year. PFF’s Nathan Jahnke also devoted an entire subsection to the “Bears’ bizarre running back utilization” in his preseason Week 1 fantasy football recap, noting Swift started the game with the first-team offense but was subbed out for Herbert on just the second play from scrimmage.

Per Jahnke, “The fact that Swift was taken out immediately suggests this could be a heavy running back rotation. Two plays later, [running back] Travis Homer was in on third down. Roschon Johnson missed this game likely due to injury, and presumably, he would have been the third-down player if he was healthy.” Homer earned just a 37.9 PFF overall grade last year.

Swift’s Chicago debut also included a 42-yard reception, but the backfield deployment is hard to ignore, particularly Homer’s first-team usage. Swift’s ADP must drop to borderline RB3/RB4 territory before he can be deemed reliably draftable. He likewise profiles as a stronger half-PPR asset than a PPR asset, given his personnel roadblocks to a passing-down role.

As noted in the “Ambiguous backfields to target in 2024“ article, Herbert (79.4 PFF rushing grade) not only boasts a superior PFF rushing grade to Swift (71.6), but he also finished ahead of Swift in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.25 to 0.19), yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.0 to 2.4) and explosive run play rate (9.9% to 9.6%).

Johnson, a 2023 rookie, outplayed Swift in various pass-game categories — PFF receiving grade (60.7 to 53.5), target rate (22.1% to 16.9%), yards per route run (1.10 to 0.82), missed tackles forced per reception (0.29 to 0.23), explosive pass play rate (5.9% to 4.7%) and PFF pass-blocking grade (64.8 to 55.0).

The 6-foot, 225-pound Johnson also produced a superior green-zone rushing conversion rate, beating the 5-foot-9, 215-pound Swift 42.9% to 25.9%.

Swift currently profiles as a between-the-20s rusher unworthy of his weekly RB2 draft capital, albeit in an expectedly high-scoring offense.

RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders

Fantasy managers are drafting White in the mid-sixth round as the half-PPR RB23 and PPR RB22 based almost entirely on projected volume rather than talent. It is entirely possible White will rise to the occasion as Las Vegas’ starter, but his one-dimensional, unproven profile makes him one of fantasy football’s riskiest Rounds 1-6 draft picks. His 71.8 PFF overall grade in 2023 ranked 30th among 61 NFL running backs with at least 225 offensive snaps.

Las Vegas’ 2023 starting running back Josh Jacobs suffered a season-ending, Week 14 quadriceps strain, elevating White to a fill-in starter role. White produced four finishes ranging from the PPR RB12 to RB21, keyed by a Week 16 showing against the Kansas City Chiefs, against whom he totaled 145 rushing yards and six missed tackles forced on 22 rushing attempts. Despite the stat-packed outing, White’s small 2023 sample underwhelms. Jacobs earned a 66.0 PFF overall grade last year.

Jacobs signed a four-year contract with the Green Bay Packers this offseason, leaving White as the default incumbent–a far cry from a player who earned the starting role outright.

The table below ranks in parentheses White’s 2023 rushing data among 50 running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts.

Among 50 NFL running backs with at least 15 red-zone rushing attempts, White’s 18.8% first down-plus-touchdown conversion rate tied for 43rd. Among 53 NFL running backs with at least seven green-zone rushing attempts, White’s 14.3% clip tied for 45th. Those are paltry figures for a supposedly bullying 6-foot, 215-pound rusher.

White’s overall receiving profile fails to instill confidence, though he profiles as a back-end passing-game starter via his 17-target, 90-receiving-snap sample from 2023. Among 66 NFL running backs with at least 15 targets and 90 receiving snaps, his 18.9% target rate ranked 26th, his 1.09 yards per route run average tied for 28th, his 0.2-yard average depth of target ranked 27th and his 6.1 yards after the catch per reception ranked 51st. He forced three missed tackles (tying for 51st) and produced one explosive pass play (tying for 54th).

White failed to earn a target in his 2022 rookie season and saw just 21 total in three years at Georgia.

White’s backfield mates are also a factor. No. 2 running back Alexander Mattison flopped as the Minnesota Vikings’ 2023 starter but totaled 96-plus rushing attempts and earned 15-plus targets in three of his four seasons playing alongside running back Dalvin Cook before that. Cook’s 85.3 PFF overall grade during that four-year stretch towers over White’s still respectable career-long 72.3 PFF overall grade. Mattison’s poor play earned him a 61.8 PFF overall grade last year.

As detailed in “Best post-reception producers in the 2024 NFL Draft,” sixth-round Raiders rookie running back Dylan Laube is an extremely talented pass-catcher. He earned a 90.5 PFF receiving grade in 2023, the second-best mark among 16 FCS running backs to see at least 35 targets.

White’s profile effectively amounts to above-average yards after contact traits surrounded by glaring deficiencies. A Year 4 leap in performance is possible but unlikely.