• Josh Jacobs is losing work to an undrafted second-year running back: Jacobs' playing time has decreased over the past two weeks, while his backup, Emanuel Wilson, saw a career-high in snaps and carries in Week 3. Oh, by the way. Wilson also looked much better than Jacobs.
• Fantasy managers should be excited about J.K. Dobbins‘ disappointing Week 3: Dobbins' stat line was underwhelming in a tough matchup last week, but the positive takeaway is that he has taken full control of the Chargers' backfield, handling 75% of the team's rushing attempts in Week 3.
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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
With so many running backs splitting their backfield in today’s NFL, it is more important than ever to figure out which players are receiving the most valuable snaps and touches on their team and who is slowly losing their workload to teammates who are outproducing them.
Here are the top running back takeaways over the first three weeks of the 2024 season that could greatly impact fantasy points in Week 4 and beyond.
Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins takes full control of the Chargers backfield in Week 3
Despite Week 3 being J.K. Dobbins’ worst statistical game of the season — he faced the Steelers' stifling run defense — fantasy managers should still be optimistic for the future.
The Chargers seem comfortable moving away from Gus Edwards and leaning more into Dobbins as their workhorse back. There were only four players who were given 70% or more of their team’s rushing attempts in Week 3 — Rams' Kyren Williams (92.3%), Saints' Alvin Kamara (89.7%) Seahawks' Zach Charbonnet (78.3) and Dobbins (75%).
Over the first two weeks of the season, Dobbins played only 10 more snaps and had two fewer carries than Edwards. But in Week 3, Dobbins played almost twice as many snaps as Edwards while outtouching him 18-3.
On top of that, Dobbins got both of the team’s red-zone carries in Week 3. Prior to last week, Edwards was leading the duo in red-zone carries 4-2.
Dobbins faces another tough matchup in Week 4, as the Chargers will take on the Chiefs. But because of his workload and talent, he is an every-week start in fantasy.
Upcoming matchups: vs. Chiefs, at Broncos, at Cardinals
Packers RB Josh Jacobs splits the backfield with Emanuel Wilson in Week 3
Josh Jacobs’ snap rate has decreased each week this season. He played 73% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in Week 1, 67% of snaps in Week 2 and then just of snaps 52% in Week 3.
In that same vein, his share of his team's carries has decreased each week, dropping to just 39% last Sunday. This reduced usage is particularly surprising, given that third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd has been injured for most of the season. Instead, 2023 undrafted RB Emanuel Wilson is cutting into Jacobs' workload.
Wilson played a career-high 41.3% of the team's snaps and recorded 14 touches in Week 3 — Jacobs only had one more touch than Wilson in the game. Not only did Wilson score a 35-yard receiving touchdown, but he was also significantly more productive on the ground, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and 3.1 yards after contact per carry. In contrast, Jacobs managed only 3.1 yards per carry and 2.0 yards after contact per carry.
Jacobs’ usage and productivity are worrisome as he enters a very tough matchup against the Vikings. His fantasy value may only depreciate as the season progresses once Lloyd returns from his IR stint.
Upcoming matchups: vs. Vikings, at Rams, vs. Cardinals
Chiefs' Carson Steele dominates RB carries in his first NFL start with Isiah Pacheco sidelined
With Isiah Pacheco on IR after fracturing his leg in Week 2, the Chiefs seamlessly moved on to undrafted rookie Carson Steele and gave him 17 carries in his first NFL start.
Steele handled 74% of the Chiefs' running back carries in Week 3, with veteran Samaje Perine getting the other six carries. Steele also out-snapped Perine 46-28 last Sunday night.
Steele also had six red-zone carries and one red-zone target, while no other Chiefs running back got a single look in the red zone in Week 3. His seven red-zone opportunities in Week 3 tied for second among running backs, trailing only L.A.'s Kyren Williams, who scored three times that Sunday. If this usage continues, it's only a matter of time before the touchdowns start coming for Steele.
The only concern is that the Chiefs activated Kareem Hunt from their practice squad, and he could quickly squash any optimism surrounding Steele.
Upcoming matchups: at Chargers, vs. Saints, at 49ers
Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving out-touches & vastly outplays Rachaad White
For some reason, White remained on the field far more than Bucky Irving in Week 3, logging 42 offensive snaps compared to Irving's 18. However, Irving led the Buccaneers' backfield with nine carries for 70 rushing yards, while White managed just six carries for 17 yards.
If the Buccaneers hope to improve their running game, they need to transition Irving into the lead-back role. White has posted a 52.6 PFF run grade in 2024, ranking 33rd out of 35 running backs with 25-plus carries this season. He's averaging just 2.1 yards per carry and 2.2 yards after contact per carry, while Irving has been far more efficient, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and 4.0 yards after contact per carry in 2024.
It isn’t just the first three weeks of the 2024 season that have been bad for White; he has been the least efficient runner in the NFL over the last two seasons — he has averaged 3.49 yards per carry since the start of the 2023 season, and no other running back with 250 or more carries during that span has averaged fewer than 3.87 yards/carry.
If the Buccaneers want to fix their broken running game, they need to make Bucky Irving their lead back. Pick him up off waiver or trade for Irving now while his cost is low.
Upcoming matchups: vs. Eagles, at Falcons, at Saints
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard gets 26 touches with Andy Dalton under center
With the offense thriving under Andy Dalton instead of Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard saw a significant increase in volume and secured a top-five finish. Hubbard accounted for 21 of the Panthers' 28 running back carries in Week 3 while also catching five passes for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Hubbard gets an absolutely delicious matchup against the Bengals defense in Week 3, and he should have a very solid game. However, I advise selling Hubbard now while his value is high after a huge game.
Despite Hubbard’s large workload in Week 3, he still played just 13 more snaps than Miles Sanders. Meanwhile, Sanders actually stole the team’s lone goal-line carry. Even if Hubbard has a big game in Week 4, his value will likely drop significantly, with second-round RB Jonathan Brooks eligible to come off IR next week. Soon, the Panthers' backfield will become a three-headed committee, with Brooks positioned to take over the lead role at some point this season.
Hubbard's trade value is at its peak right now, heading into the matchup against the Bengals. And honestly, who will be shocked if the Panthers fall flat on their face in their second game with Dalton under center? I don’t think anyone would.
Upcoming matchups: vs. Bengals, at Bears, vs. Falcons
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