Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: Quarterback tiers 3.0

• Josh Allen leads the way in 2024: Even without his top receiving option from last year, Allen is still an elite fantasy option this season.

• Two rookie quarterbacks within the top 12: Expectations are high for Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, and I think they can deliver in Year 1.

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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Breaking fantasy football rankings down into tiers helps fantasy managers better understand what separates each group and how to value each player at the position for this coming season.

Tier 1: The Fantasy-tastic Four

Josh Allen gets the slightest of edges over Jalen Hurts heading into this season after finishing last year as the overall QB1, averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game (first) and 0.63 fantasy points per dropback (first) — both slightly higher than Hurts. The biggest question mark for Allen coming into this season revolves around his receiving weapons because he loses his WR1 in Stefon Diggs. This is less of a concern for Allen, who only relied on his top receiver for 19.2% of his total fantasy points, which was well below average, ranking 24th among 28 qualifying quarterbacks. Allen will be just fine without Diggs this season and deserves to lead this top tier.

Both Hurts and Lamar Jackson offer the best combination of rushing volume and passing ability, as they averaged over eight rushing attempts per game, ranking top-three last season behind only Justin Fields. Allen, Hurts and Jackson were also the only quarterbacks to average six rush attempts per game and over 225 passing yards per game. That high-end rushing ability creates significant upside weekly and is one of the most stable quarterback metrics to count on year-to-year, leaving both players locked in as top-tier options.

Patrick Mahomes had a down fantasy year relative to expectations in 2023, ranking as just QB10 in points per game (18.8). That being said, he’s only a year removed from finishing as the overall QB1 for fantasy. Mahomes just inherited Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, which will provide him more passing upside with more capable options on the other end of his throws. Betting on Mahomes to have another relatively quiet year for fantasy just feels sub-optimal, all things considered, which is why he remains in this top tier.

Tier 2: Weekly overall QB1 upside due to rushing ability and/or elite offensive weapons

C.J. Stroud leads the second tier after a very encouraging rookie season where he averaged 273.9 passing yards per game (third) while only having to generate 12.1% of his fantasy production as a runner. Stroud’s passing volume and effectiveness are the key to landing atop this tier, as he also has arguably the best pass-game weapons in the league between Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell leading the way. Stroud averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game as a rookie without Diggs and Dell for the full season. Further development and a full year with his elite passing options encourage all the confidence that he can deliver a strong return for fantasy managers making this investment.

Anthony Richardson’s rookie year in 2023 was cut significantly short by injury but in the time he spent on the field, he teased elite fantasy upside thanks to his rushing ability. Richardson’s four games yielded 9.4 fantasy points per game as a runner alone, which was higher than Hurts (8.8) and Allen (8.4). He also posted the highest fantasy points per dropback (0.73) in his small sample size last season. The risk comes with re-injury for Richardson as he tends to take some big hits as well, but taking a chance on his upside and pairing him with a safer bet later in drafts is the optimal strategy when taking this early swing on him.

Kyler Murray has steadily risen in ADP throughout the offseason and deservedly so, as he arguably has overall QB1 potential this season when considering both his rushing and passing upside. The Marvin Harrison Jr. addition and Trey McBride‘s emergence as a high-end receiving target should help Murray deliver one of the best passing seasons of his career, which will only boost his fantasy potential.

Joe Burrow had a disappointing season in 2023 due to injury, but he’s a prime bounce-back candidate this season should he stay healthy. Burrow only averaged 15.5 points per game across 10 games last season, but in games where he appeared to be over his calf injury (Weeks 5-11), he earned 19.9 points per game and was the QB9 over that span. Burrow has shown the ability to be an elite passer in the NFL, and with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as his top weapons, he’s a great bet to get back to that form in 2024.

Tier 3: Slightly lower chances of weekly overall QB1 upside, but it’s definitely there

Two rookie quarterbacks exist in this third tier and inside the top-12 at the position, which historically is a lower percentage bet to make but after diving into the historical comparions and expectations for both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels (here), we should feel pretty comfortable about their potential to deliver in Year 1. Williams, as the No. 1 overall pickm has the talent to hit the ground running, which will only be helped by one of the best offensive situations in the NFL with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift to distribute the ball to.

For Daniels, he has good receiving options as well, but his rushing upside is going to be among the best in the league after scrambling on 14.0% of his career college dropbacks, which is the second-highest among quarterback prospects since 2017. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons at LSU where he posted at least 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, so it should be a significant part of his game in the NFL as well, making him a very enticing fantasy prospect.

Daniels has a real chance to establish himself among the elite fantasy quarterbacks with a strong rookie season, specifically as a passer. His rushing upside is clearly where the majority of his fantasy appeal comes from, but delivering as an efficient passer right away will eliminate one of the primary question marks that is keeping him in this third tier for now, and that upside should be targeted within the top 10 quarterbacks in drafts.

Jordan Love and Brock Purdy were among the top fantasy quarterbacks last year, which came as a surprise to some after they were both drafted well outside the top 20 at their position last offseason. After coming through with breakout seasons where they averaged over 19.0 fantasy points per game, both are good bets for continued success in 2024.

Tier 4: Solid and reliable options who will push for top-12 on a weekly basis

Within this fourth tier are the safer quarterback options, as they will occasionally deliver big weeks but are much more likely to hover just above or below the top 12 at their position on average throughout the season.

Aside from Trevor Lawrence (15th), these quarterbacks all ranked among the top 10 in PFF passing grade this past season, as each averaged at least 240 passing yards per game. Passing volume and prowess are going to be key to their success again in 2024, putting them among the best QB2 options in fantasy football this season.

Tier 5: Less stable options who won’t frequent the top-12 at a high rate

This tier consists of some of the lower-end backup quarterback options for 2024, though all likely have a case to be considered higher on this list, if not for more question marks.

For Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield, both players were fine, if not unremarkable, fantasy options in 2023, averaging just over 16.5 fantasy points per game each. Helping their case is that they have very good wide receivers to throw to between Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but neither quarterback necessarily offers that QB1 upside at a high enough rate, as they finished inside the weekly top-12 at their position just five times or fewer in 2023.

Will Levis is a true question mark because he only played nine games as a rookie and was the most reliant quarterback in the league for getting fantasy points from his top receiver, DeAndre Hopkins (43.4%). Luckily for Levis, Hopkins is back but so are more weapons for him in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard. The Tennessee Titans have even made an effort to improve their offensive line, providing Levis all the opportunities necessary to succeed, and if it works, it could result in a breakout season in 2024.

Deshaun Watson hasn’t played more than six games in a season since joining the Cleveland Browns, and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played six snaps since joining the New York Jets. However, each offers a potential upside that, while it feels far removed from their current status, could at least shine through on any given week. For Watson, relying on his rushing prowess will be a big help, and it feels much more likely to contribute to his fantasy success than regaining his top-three passing form from 2020. Rodgers isn't that far removed from back-to-back MVP seasons, but as a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, he’s a lot more risky going forward, keeping him from being too highly sought after for fantasy this year.

Rookies Bo Nix and Drake Maye had strong showings in the preseason, and while Nix has been locked into a starting job, Maye doesn’t appear to be far behind in that confirmation. Even if not official yet for Maye, it seems like a foregone conclusion. Through the first two preseason games, Brissett went 3-for-10 passing, with and an interception and just a 36.5 PFF passing grade. Brissett was playing better in the third preseason game before suffering what appeared to be a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Maye went 21-for-34, throwing a touchdown and rushing for 32 yards. Although he fumbled a few snaps, he showed plenty of promise.

Both Justin Fields and Daniel Jones have improved their stocks this offseason. Jones has gotten healthy enough to be ready for Week 1 following a torn ACL, and Fields seemingly improved his stock in a quarterback competition with Russell Wilson. Focusing on Fields, specifically, there appears to be a legitimate chance that he can win the job outright over Wilson either to start the year or take over if Wilson isn’t performing well during the year. As a starting quarterback, Fields has a lot more weekly top-12 potential than Wilson due to his rushing upside, which was evident last year when he averaged 19.0 points per game across 13 games. Taking the low-risk swing on Fields at this point in drafts could be very valuable should he become a starter at any point this season.

Tier 6: Lower floor and ceiling options

This tier will include all the remaining expected starters heading into this season. There isn’t a lot of top-12 upside amongst this group. It won't be an impossible task to get there on any given week, but it’s just a mostly proven low-ceiling/low-floor bunch to choose from.

Fantasy managers have a pretty good idea of what they’re getting from the veterans in this tier, and with the rookies all moving up the board except for J.J. McCarthy, we’re looking at depth options only at this point. Geno Smith may bounce back closer to his 2022 form, or Bryce Young may deliver a much better Year 2, but there isn’t much reason to draft these players any higher than their ADP.

Tier 7: Backups who could see the field at some point

Lastly, a small group of backup quarterbacks rounds out the rankings for those deeper leagues. This group is ranked by a combination of fantasy upside and overall potential to see the field in 2024, whether due to injury history or inexperience of the starter.