• Arizona Cardinals: Arizona’s overall pass defense unit is among the league’s worst.
• Denver Broncos: Denver’s cornerbacks, linebackers and safeties are exploitable through the air.
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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Fantasy managers who opt to employ a matchup-based approach at the quarterback position must know which defenses provided week-winning, must-start opportunities. The article below breaks down three such passes whose personnel issues are unlikely to be fixed, even with savvy scheming, in 2024.
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals‘ pass defense features unreliable starting cornerbacks backed by abysmal depth, aging safeties, an inept linebacker and a near-league worst interior defender group, making it a pass defense to target for fantasy purposes in 2024. The defense’s 51.3 PFF defense grade ranks dead last among NFL teams.
Arizona’s perimeter is defended by free agent signee cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and second-round rookie cornerback Max Melton, with league-worst depth behind them.
Murphy-Bunting ranks 34th in targeted rate (14.6%) and falls outside the top 45 in catch rate allowed (65.1%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.37) and explosive pass play rate (3.1%) among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter coverage snaps. His 63.2 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 39th.
Among 107 Power Five perimeter cornerbacks with at least 245 perimeter coverage snaps, Melton ranks outside the top 30 in both targeted rate (13.3%) and catch rate allowed (51.5%), and his 12.1% forced incompletion rate ranks outside the top 60. His 75.0 PFF perimeter coverage grade ties for 43rd.
Last year’s perimeter coverage unit remains intact behind Muphy-Bunting and Melton. It ranks dead last in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed (0.127) and positive EPA rate allowed (52.1%). Its 39.8 PFF PFF coverage grade likewise ranks 32nd.
Arizona second-year slot cornerback Garrett Williams played promisingly last year but surrendered the 20th-ranked catch rate (71.4%), ranked among 34 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 185 slot-coverage snaps. The young talent can impose his will on lesser opponents but should currently be viewed as the best member of a weak group.
Arizona’s five-time-defending Pro Bowl free safety Budda Baker enters his age-28 season after spending five 2023 games on injured reserve with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Opposing quarterbacks targeted him at a career-high 12.0-yard average depth of target (aDot), likewise taking him for his career-worst yards per reception average, 16.0 yards. It was the first season in which he failed to force more than one incompletion and his 133.3 NFL passer rating allowed when targeted ranks dead last among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps. His 61.8 PFF coverage grade is his worst since 2018.
Baker’s four-year recorded injury history now includes the aforementioned hamstring injury, one high-ankle sprain, two concussions, one chest sprain, one knee strain, one neck injury, a Grade 1 inguinal groin strain and a torn UCL thumb ligament. The hardnosed 5-foot-10, 195-pound former punisher is no longer a feared defender.
Among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps, Arizona strong safety Jalen Thompson (27 years old) ranks outside the top 50 in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.7%), explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.70) and first-down and/or touchdowns allowed rate (44.7%). His 76.1 PFF coverage grade ranks 14th.
As detailed in “3 TE1 breakout candidates for 2024,” Arizona linebacker Kyzir White is one of the position’s worst tight end-coverage defenders. Among 63 NFL linebackers with at least 50 tight end coverage snaps, he “ ties for eighth in explosive pass plays allowed rate (5.9%) while ranking bottom three in targeted rate (33.3%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (2.61).”
Arizona added to its burgeoning edge rush (71.1 PFF pass-rush grade) by drafting former Missouri edge rusher Darius Robinson in the 2024 NFL draft’s first round, following his 22nd-ranked 78.4 PFF pass-rush grade season, ranked among 47 Power Five edge rushers with at least 275 pass-rushing snaps, but its interior defender unit remains a liability. Its 54.5 PFF pass-rush grade and 13.6% pass-rush win rate both rank bottom five among NFL teams
Arizona’s pass defense is one to target for fantasy purposes in 2024.
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos defense has glaring weaknesses in both the secondary and linebacker corps that can be easily exploited for fantasy football purposes. They are a unit to target in 2024.
Denver No. 1 cornerback Pat Surtain II is developing into a high-quality perimeter coverage defender but remains an imperfect player. His Nos. 2 and 3 sidekicks, perimeter cornerback Damarri Mathis and slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian, are supreme liabilities. Free agent signee cornerback Levi Wallace, now 29 years old, surrendered 32 explosive pass plays over the last two seasons.
Among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter coverage snaps, Surtain ranks 25th or worse in catch rate allowed (62.7%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.01), explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.3%) and forced incompletion rate (12.0%). His 63.5 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 38th.
Among 84 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 220 perimeter coverage snaps, Mathis ranks bottom eight in catch rate allowed (72.5%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.63) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (4.9%). His 36.7 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks dead last.
Among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps, McMillian ranks outside the top 20 in targeted rate (16.9%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.20), explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.9%) and forced incompletion rate (4.6%). His 58.7 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 31st.
Denver holdover linebacker Alex Singleton (39.4 PFF coverage grade) and free agent signee linebacker Cody Barton (66.2 PFF coverage grade) offer little passing-game utility. Their respective PFF coverage grades rank 63rd and 27th among 65 NFL linebackers with at least 270 coverage snaps. Singleton ranks bottom seven in both targeted rate (17.3%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (1.25) and Barton ranks 50th in catch rate allowed (82.0%).
The secondary lost three-time-defending second-team All-Pro safety Justin Simmons this offseason, leaving three rotational players to vie for the starting two roles. Simmons’ 63.4 PFF coverage grade ranks 40th among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps.
In-house safeties P.J. Locke and Caden Sterns, who spent all but two snaps on injured reserve, will compete with free-agent signee safety Brandon Jones. Among 77 NFL safeties with at least 300 coverage snaps, Jones’ only glaring weakness is his 71.4% catch rate allowed, tying for 53rd. Locke ranks 45th or worse in targeted rate (7.5%), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.56) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.9%).
Sterns’ first (2021) and second (2022) seasons were so different, it is unclear if he made developmental leaps or is the beneficiary of a small sample size. His allowed catch rate improved from 77.3%-to-36.4%, his yards allowed per coverage snap improved from 1.18-to-0.36 and his explosive pass plays allowed rate improved from 2.6%-to-1.2%. He logged 241 coverage snaps in 2021 and just 174 in 2022.
Denver’s pass defense should be targeted for fantasy purposes in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers
New head coach Jim Harbaugh took over a Los Angeles Chargers defense with personnel issues top-to-bottom. Rather than taking a holistic approach, he invested heavily in the team’s front seven defenders this offseason, leaving the defense’s overall coverage group sorely lacking. It is a pass defense to target in 2024.
Los Angeles No. 1 cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. profiles as a low-end No. 1 starter, ranking 20th in targeted rate (13.1%), 43rd in catch rate (63.7%) and 28th in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.03) among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter coverage snaps. His 78.5 PFF coverage grade ranks 12th. Expected No. 2 perimeter starter Kristian Fulton dismally ranks bottom seven in catch rate allowed (73.5%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.65) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (4.1%). His 48.5 PFF coverage grade ranks 63rd.
Los Angeles linebacker corps is likely to start journeyman Denzel Perryman and third-round rookie Junior Colson, who played for Harbaugh at Michigan. Perryman is the only player who logged enough snaps to qualify as a starter but ranks poorly against his peers. Among 65 NFL linebackers with at least 270 coverage snaps, Perryman ranks 63rd in explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.6%) and dead last in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.42). His 38.4 PFF coverage grade ranks 64th. Among 43 Power Five linebackers with at least 300 coverage snaps, Colson’s 83.2 PFF coverage grade ranks fifth.
The units are ostensibly covered by Los Angeles’ holdover safety duo, Alohi Gilman and Derwin James Jr., who continually fail to meet their potential. Among NFL-team safety units, Los Angeles ranks outside the top 20 in EPA per play allowed (0.087), positive EPA rate allowed (47.5%), success rate (47.4%) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.6%).
Los Angeles’ pass defense is one to target in 2024.
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