Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 9 rankings and more

• QB Dak Prescott (82.4 PFF offense grade), Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: Prescott’s pass-catching weapons pair perfectly with Philadelphia’s defensive deficiencies.

• QB Geno Smith (76.0 PFF offense grade), Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens: Smith cannot be started against Baltimore’s league-best pass defense. 

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

NFL Week 9 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in his range of outcomes. 

QB Matchups to Target

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Prescott (82.4 PFF offense grade) is a mid-tier QB1 against Philadelphia, possessing high-end upside thanks to position-specific pass-catcher matchups.

The game’s 46.0-point FanDuel total is Week 9’s third-highest over/under. 

Injuries continue to plague Philadelphia’s centerfield coverage unit, which bodes well for Dallas slot receiver CeeDee Lamb (69.4 PFF slot-receiving grade).

The Eagles have had 8 different starting five combinations in their secondary in 8 games. pic.twitter.com/jmK0swRnpY

— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) October 30, 2023

Among 31 NFL slot receivers with at least 100 slot-receiving snaps, Lamb ranks No. 8 in slot-target rate (19.9%), No. 4 in yards per slot-route run (1.70), ties for No. 3 in missed tackles forced receiving (four) and No. 1 in explosive pass plays (nine). 

Philadelphia’s slot defensive backs are allowing 2.28 yards per slot receiver-coverage snap and a 7.8% explosive pass plays allowed rate to opposing slot receivers, tying for No. 20 and ranking No. 30, respectively, among NFL-team slot defensive back units. 

Philadelphia is reportedly seeking linebacker help, likely stemming from starters Zach Cunningham‘s (70.3 PFF coverage grade) and Nakobe Dean’s (48.6 PFF coverage grade) tight end-coverage struggles. Among 72 NFL linebackers with at least 14 tight end-coverage snaps, Cunningham (87.5%) and Dean (100.0%) both rank outside the top 50 in catch rate allowed. Cunningham’s 1.56 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks No. 38 and Dean’s 2.00 yards allowed per coverage snap ties for No. 51.

Dallas’ second-year tight end Jake Ferguson (69.2 PFF receiving grade) continues to play well with increased opportunities, producing one explosive pass play per game in each of Dallas’ last four games. Among 34 NFL tight ends with at least 75 receiving snaps during that span (Weeks 4-8), Ferguson is one-of-two tight ends to produce a 100.0% catch rate.

Prescott is also playing well in his own right.

Prescott’s passing data among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks:

Prescott is a mid-tier QB1 with a high-end upside.

QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

Carr’s (65.8 PFF passing grade) 132 passing attempts and 964 passing yards rank No. 2 among NFL quarterbacks in Weeks 6-8. His four touchdowns during that span tie for No. 13 but Chicago’s safety-less secondary offers the aggressive downfield thrower an opportunity for positive regression. He is a volatile QB1. 

FanDuel implies New Orleans to score 24.25 points and the game’s 41.0-point over/under is Week 9’s seventh-highest game total.

Chicago free safety Eddie Jackson (72.6 PFF coverage grade) has totaled just 14 coverage snaps since injuring his left foot in Week 2. Jackson suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in the same foot in 2022. 

Chicago strong safety Jaquan Brisker (52.0 PFF coverage safety) is a multi-faceted coverage defender who served as a part-time tight end-coverage specialist in 2022. He impressively allowed a perfect 0.0% explosive pass plays rate to the position. Brisker experienced a frightful Week 8 concussion saga and appears unlikely to suit up in Week 9.

Update 11/3/23: Both Brisker and Chicago linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (knee) have been ruled out, significantly hampering the team’s ability to slow New Orleans tight ends Juwan Johnson (52.8 PFF receiving grade) and Taysom Hill (69.7 PFF offense grade) and running back Alvin Kamara (65.0 PFF offense grade).

Carr’s speed-demon wide receivers Chris Olave (75.0 PFF receiving grade) and Rashid Shaheed (71.4 PFF receiving grade) help Carr get rid of the ball quickly on downfield throws.

Carr’s 15-plus-yard average-depth-of-target (aDot) passing data among NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 such passing attempts in Weeks 6-8:

Carr should surpass 300-plus passing yards for the fourth straight week and possesses multi-touchdown upside.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders

Jones (57.4 PFF passing grade) has been cleared for contact following his Week 5 neck injury and backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor (68.5 PFF passing grade) is considered week-to-week after spending Sunday night in the hospital with a rib cage injury. Jones should remain on fantasy football benches in Week 9 though. Las Vegas’ defensive starts hold positions of strength over New York’s corresponding offensive weaknesses.

The game’s 37.5-point FanDuel total ties for Week 9’s second-lowest over/under.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives New York a -34.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 9’s third-worst. 

Las Vegas returned stud slot cornerback Nate Hobbs (69.0 PFF slot-coverage grade, ankle sprain) at the last second, prior to their Week 8 14-26 Monday Night Football loss to the Detroit Lions (84.8 PFF passing grade). Detroit’s 2022 Pro Bowl slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (84.3 PFF slot-receiving grade) earned just two targets in Hobbs’ coverage. 

New York slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (61.7 PFF slot-receiving grade) has bizarrely been written out of the game plan over the last two weeks; his three first-read targets during that span rank just fifth among New York pass-catchers during that span. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives him a poor 21.1 receiving matchup advantage rating against Hobbs.

New York tight end Darren Waller (73.1 PFF receiving grade) suffered a new hamstring strain in Week 8, putting his Week 9 availability seriously in doubt. Tight ends averaged 3.0 games missed due to hamstring strains, per Doctor of Physical Therapy Adam Hutchison’s Injury Report.

New York left tackle Andrew Thomas (70.1 PFF pass-blocking grade) has yet to play following his Week 1 hamstring strain and right tackle Evan Neal (37.6 PFF pass-blocking grade) has likewise been out since suffering a Week 6 ankle sprain. Head coach Brian Daboll stated on Wednesday that both players have “an opportunity” to play on Sunday.

Las Vegas edge rusher Maxx Crosby (90.3 PFF pass-rush grade) ranks top four among NFL edge rushers with at least 185 pass-rushing snaps in pass-rush win rate (18.7%), quarterback pressure rate (16.9%) and pass-rush productivity (9.7). 

Jones’ impending pass protection issues are significant causes for concern. Among 31 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks, Jones’ 29.2 PFF passing grade when pressured, 0.0% big-time-throw rate, 34.7% past-the-sticks throwing rate and 3.8 yards per pass attempt all rank No. 28 or worse. 

Jones is a back-end QB2 against Las Vegas.

QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens 

Smith (76.0 PFF offense grade) faces Baltimore’s air-tight defense in Week 9, rendering Smith a QB2 floor play.

FanDuel implies Seattle to score just 18.5 points. 

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Seattle a -10.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating. Baltimore’s (71.6 PFF pass-rush grade) 29.0 NFL sacks rank No. 1 among NFL teams by 3.0 and their 14.0 blitz-acquired sacks likewise tie for the league lead with the Miami Dolphins (78.9 PFF pass-rush grade). 

Smith is not moving well this year; his nine scrambles tie for No. 22 among NFL quarterbacks and his 2.0% big-time-throw rate when throwing on the move ranks No. 18 among 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 20 such dropbacks. Smith notably suffered a Week 4 knee injury against the New York Giants (64.6 PFF defense grade).

Smith returns middling passing value overall. Among 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, his 4.0% big-time-throw rate ranks No. 15, his 4.1% turnover-worthy play rate ranks No. 30 and his 7.3 yards per passing attempt ranks No. 14.   

Baltimore’s coverage defense (90.8 PFF coverage grade) consistently dominates despite continued defensive back injuries; their 66.0% catch rate allowed ranks No. 5 and both their 4.71 yards allowed per coverage snap and 7.9% explosive pass plays allowed rank rank No. 1 among NFL teams. 

Smith should not be started in single-quarterback leagues.

Streamer of the Week

QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Levis (77.9 PFF offense grade) torched the Atlanta Falcons defense (67.6 PFF coverage grade) for 234 pass yards, four touchdowns and 11 rushing yards (65.4 PFF rushing grade), despite Atlanta’s defense ranking top 12 in Weeks 1-7 catch rate allowed (69.0%), yards allowed per coverage snap (5.71) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (12.0%). Levis demonstrated accurate short-area passing while dominating via 20-plus-yard aDot throws. His profile is potentially prone to volatility, given the small sample and NFL Draft-related concerns, however, Pittsburgh’s explosive-pass-play-friendly defense sets the stage for a Week 8 repeat.

Pittsburgh 2022 first-team All-Pro free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (59.9 PFF coverage grade) has already been ruled inactive for Week 9 following his Week 8 hamstring strain. Among seven Pittsburgh defensive backs with at least 75 coverage snaps, Fitzpatrick is one-of-two to register a 1.0% explosive pass plays allowed rate or better.

Levis’ Week 8 passing data among 29 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 Week 8 dropbacks:

Among 31 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage to nine yards downfield, Levis’ 87.5% adjusted completion rate ties for No. 12 and his eight passes targeted 20-plus-yards downfield led all Week 8 NFL quarterbacks. 

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin finally announced stud second-round rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (86.7 PFF coverage grade) as the No. 2 perimeter cornerback this week, sidelining per-play liability Levi Wallace (49.0 PFF coverage grade).

Levis can still pick on No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson (53.4 PFF perimeter-coverage grade) and slot cornerback Chandon Sullivan (41.8 PFF slot-coverage grade). Among 65 NFL cornerbacks with at least 130 perimeter-coverage snaps, Peterson’s 1.21 yards allowed per coverage snap ties for No. 33 and his 4.0% explosive pass plays allowed rate ties for No. 54. Among 37 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 70 slot-coverage snaps, Sullivan ranks No. 29 (1.36) and No. 28 (2.9%), respectively. 

Levis is a highly volatile quarterback possessing week-winning upside.