Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 11 rankings and more

• QB Brock Purdy  (73.2 PFF passing grade), San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Purdy should rack up explosive plays against Tampa Bay’s big-play-friendly defense.

• QB Kenny Pickett (63.6 PFF passing grade), Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns: Pickett is a QB3 against Cleveland’s elite defense.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

NFL Week 11 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in his range of outcomes. 

QB Matchups to Target

QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Purdy (73.2 PFF passing grade) is primed for an explosive, dual-threat QB1 performance against Tampa Bay’s pushover pass rush and big-play-friendly coverage unit.

FanDuel implies San Francisco to score 26.0 points. 

San Francisco’s offense ranks top three in both expected point added (EPA) per play (0.137, an explosiveness measurement) and success rate (48.9%, positive EPA rate).

Purdy has played aggressively and effectively this year. His 5.9% big-time-throw rate and 4.6% turnover-worthy play rate rank sixth and seventh highest, respectively, among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks and his 9.3 yards per passing attempt and 79.7% adjusted completion rate impressively rank Nos. 1 and 3. 

Among 22 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 rushing attempts, Purdy’s 90.6 PFF rushing grade ranks No. 1, his 38.5% first-down-gained and/or touchdown-scored rate ranks No. 8 and his 19.2% explosive run play rate (five total) ranks No. 11. 

Purdy has proven himself both as a brilliant open-field scrambler and as an efficient rusher in scoring position. His 9.2 yards per scramble rank No. 5 among 28 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles and Purdy is one-of-fifteen quarterbacks with at least two rushing attempts inside the opponent's five-yard line. He scored touchdowns on both attempts.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense (52.5 PFF coverage grade) ranks outside the top 25 in EPA allowed per play (0.096), yards allowed per coverage snap (6.75) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (16.0%). The pass rush (71.0 PFF pass-rush grade) is only mildly better, ranking No. 24 in both pass-rush win rate (39.1%) and pass-rush productivity (23.9) and No. 25 in quarterback pressure rate (31.4%). 

Tampa Bay’s run defense (57.1 PFF run-defense grade) struggles to slow rushing quarterbacks, ranking No. 24 or worse in average depth of quarterback tackle (3.69), negatively-graded run play rate (37.5%) and success rate allowed (37.5%).

The defensive starters are playing at far less than 100.0% health; two starting cornerbacks and three defensive linemen either played through injuries or were unable to play entirely in Week 10. 

Purdy should routinely rip off explosive plays against Tampa Bay en route to a QB1 finish.

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans

Murray (60.0 PFF offense grade) turned in an extremely impressive performance in his Week 10 return from ACL reconstruction. His Week 11 game against Houston profiles as a high-scoring affair that should yield top-12 positional results. 

The game’s 47.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 11’s highest game total.

Arizona’s 0.029 EPA per play ranks No. 13 among NFL teams in Week 10 and their 50.0% success rate ties for No. 2 and Houston’s 0.039 and 44.0% rank Nos. 8 and 12, respectively. The impending duel between Murray and Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud (78.9 PFF passing grade) pushes both players’ fantasy-scoring ceilings into the position’s elite tier.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives breakout second-year tight end Trey McBride (84.6 PFF receiving grade) a 3.0% receiving matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 11’s 12th-best. Among 24 NFL tight ends with at least 10 targets in Weeks 8-10, McBride ranks No. 2 in total target (28), target rate (33.3%) and yards per route run (YPRR). Houston may be without linebacker Henry To’oTo’o (45.3 PFF coverage grade, concussion), safety Jimmie Ward (67.8 PFF coverage grade, hamstring strain) and linebacker Denzel Perryman (30.5 PFF coverage grade, suspension).

Murray wowed as both a passer and a rusher. Among 27 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 Week 10 dropbacks, Murray ranks top 12 in both big-time-throw rate (5.9%) and yards per passing attempt (7.8) while tying for No. 1 in turnover-worthy play rate (0.0%). Among eight Week 10 quarterbacks with at least five rushing attempts, Murray’s 82.8 PFF rushing grade ranks No. 1 and he ranks or ties for No. 3 in yards per rushing attempt (5.5), missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.17), first-downs-gained and/or touchdowns-scored rate (33.3%) and explosive run plays (one).

Houston’s pass-defense data and quarterback run-defense data among NFL teams:

Murray’s QB1 outlook is boosted both by Houston’s high-quality offense and lackluster defense.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Pickett (63.6 PFF passing grade) cannot be ranked inside the position’s top 24 against Cleveland’s NFL-best defense. 

The game’s 36.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 11’s lowest. FanDuel implies Pittsburgh to score 16.25 points. 

Pittsburgh’s offense ranks Nos. 24 and 26, respectively, in EPA per play (-0.112) and success rate (39.3%).

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Pittsburgh a -72.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 11’s worst. 

Pickett can be safely ruled a bust with eight weeks remaining in his second NFL season, ranking No. 27 or worse in big-time-throw rate (3.0%), yards per passing attempt (6.4) and adjusted completion rate (70.0%) among 37 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.

Pickett’s rushing profile offers little as a rusher. Among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 rushing attempts, Pickett ranks No. 30 or worse in both yards per rushing attempt (1.2) and missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.03). 

Cleveland’s defense astonishingly ranks top three in six-of-eight major pass defense metrics. The unit is low-pointed by their No. 6-ranked yards allowed per coverage snap (5.45) and No. 8-ranked explosive pass plays allowed rate (11.5%). 

Pickett is best left on benches even in two-quarterback and superflex formats. 

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers 

Mayfield (71.7 PFF passing grade) faces San Francisco’s Herculean pass rush and elite safety tandem in Week 11 significantly reducing his weekly streaming viability. He is a low-end QB2 playing through a likely (mildly) sprained UCL thumb ligament. 

FanDuel implies Tampa Bay to score just 15.5 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Tampa Bay a -47.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, the second-worst on the week. 

San Francisco’s pass defense ranks top eight in both EPA allowed per play (-0.146), success rate allowed (44.0%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (5.59) among NFL teams and the unit’s elite 90.5 PFF pass-rush grade, 62.2% pass-rush win rate and 10.2% explosive pass plays allowed rate either rank or tie for No. 2. Their 38.8% quarterback pressure rate ranks No. 5. 

San Francisco safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (70.2 PFF coverage grade) ranks No. 1 in catch rate allowed (23.1%), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.11) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.3%) among 64 NFL safeties with at least 215 coverage snaps. Safety Talanoa Hufanga (71.2 PFF coverage grade) ranks Nos. 3 (0.21) and 8 (0.6%), respectively, in the latter two categories.

Mayfield plays well enough for No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans (79.8 PFF receiving grade) to retain half-PPR WR1 value (131.2 points) but his overall passing profile features glaring issues. Mayfield’s 73.7% adjusted completion rate and 2.4% big-time-throw rate both rank No. 25 or worse among qualifying quarterbacks.

Mayfield’s rushing ability adds little; both his 3.5 yards per rushing attempt and 26.3% first-downs-gained and/or touchdowns-scored rate rank No. 24 among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 rushing attempts.

He is a low-end QB2.

Streamer of the Week

Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos

Dobbs (75.7 PFF offense grade in Weeks 9-10) is averaging 25.0 fantasy points per game since Arizona traded him to the Vikings, the fifth-highest average among NFL quarterbacks. Dobbs’ elite dual-threat scoring ability keeps him in the QB1 conversation against Denver’s mid-tier defense. 

Minnesota’s 0.037 EPA per play in Weeks 9-10 ranks No. 9 and their 41.8% success rate ranks No. 15.

Minnesota No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson’s (89.5 PFF receiving grade) rehabilitated hamstring (strain) responded positively to limited Week 10 practice participation, likely green-lighting him for Week 11. 

PFF’s TE  matchup chart gives tight end T.J. Hockenson (82.1 PFF receiving grade) a 23.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Denver linebacker Josey Jewell (65.4 PFF coverage grade), Week 11’s sixth-best. 

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Minnesota a 29.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 11’s fourth-best. 

Dobbs’ Minnesota passing profile is high-pointed by his 40.6% past-the-sticks throwing rate, tying for No. 11 among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks. His astonishing rushing profile is the key to his success though.

Dobbs’ Weeks 9-10 rushing data among 11 NFL quarterbacks with at least eight rushing attempts in Weeks 9-10:

Denver’s abysmal pass defense is perfect for Jefferson’s potential return.

Denver’s pass-defense data among NFL teams:

Dobbs remains a QB1 streamer.