Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 10 rankings and more

· QB Geno Smith (73.8 PFF passing grade), Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders: Smith should experience comfortable pockets against Washington’s trade-reduced pass rush.

· QB Deshaun Watson  (68.3 PFF offense grade), Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore’s pass rush should freely pressure Watson, who is stuck playing behind an offensive line missing both starting tackles.

· Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

NFL Week 10 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in his range of outcomes. 

QB Matchups to Target

QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders

Smith (73.8 PFF passing grade) gets an exceptional Week 10 bounce-back opportunity against Washington’s high-volume offense and turnstile defense. He’s a mid-tier QB1 with season-best potential. 

The game’s 45.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 10’s fourth-highest game total and Seattle is implied to score 25.75 points. 

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Seattle a 6.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for the 11th-best on the week. Washington traded away its Nos. 1 and 2 edge rushers prior to the NFL trade deadline, elevating backups Casey Toohill (57.6 PFF pass-rush grade) and James Smith-Williams (52.5 PFF pass-rush grade) to starting roles. Among 102 NFL edge rushers with at least 85 pass-rushing snaps, Toohill and Smith-Williams’ respective 2.4% and 7.2% pass-rush win rates both rank outside the top 80.

Smith’s high-volume passing potential is reinforced by Washington’s own offensive playcalling. Washington’s 68.4 offensive plays per game rank No. 11 among NFL teams and quarterback Sam Howell’s 421 dropbacks and 353 passing attempts both rank No. 1 among NFL quarterbacks.

Seattle No. 1 wide receiver D.K. Metcalf (77.7 PFF receiving grade) was encouragingly listed with only a hip injury last week after spending the six weeks prior nursing a ribs injury as well. 

Seattle’s rookie slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (59.8 PFF receiving grade) found his NFL footing in October, averaging 2.08 yards per route run (YPRR) in Weeks 7-9 while generating one explosive pass play in each of his last four games.

Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 65 dropbacks in Weeks 6-9, Smith’s 6.6% big-time-throw rate and his 42.3% past-the-sticks throwing rate both rank top eight. His 7.3 yards per passing attempt trails closely behind at No. 13.

Washington’s 6.59 yards allowed per coverage snap and 15.2% explosive pass plays allowed rate both rank No. 25 among NFL teams. Head coach Ron Rivera continues playing musical chairs in the secondary to no avail and the albeit inept linebacker Cody Barton (52.8 PFF coverage grade) joined 2022-breakout safety Darrick Forrest (58.4 PFF coverage grade) on injured reserve in Week 8.

Smith is a mid-tier QB1.

QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers

Goff (85.3 PFF passing grade) is a high-floor QB1 against Los Angeles’ middling pass defense. Los Angeles’ offensive potency should also push Detroit head coach Dan Campell into a pass-heavy game plan that relies on Goff’s accurate arm.  

The game’s 48.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 10’s highest game total, and Detroit is implied to score 25.5 points as 2.5-point road favorites. The slight spread signals a back-and-forth, competitive affair. 

Detroit’s 71.6 offensive plays per game ranks No. 2 among NFL teams, and its 6.4 offensive plays per drive tie for No. 6. Los Angeles’ 6.1 offensive plays per game (No. 10) further reinforces Detroit’s high-volume likelihood. 

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Detroit a 6.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for the 11th-best on the week. The offensive line is expected to return center Frank Ragnow (70.2 PFF pass-blocking grade, toe/calf injuries) and left guard Jonah Jackson (57.9 PFF pass-blocking grade, ankle sprain) this week.

Goff’s No. 4-ranked 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate (among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 125 passing attempts) plays a crucial role in Detroit’s ability to consistently maintain possession and consistently score touchdowns. Both Detroit (25.6%) and Los Angeles (25.0%) rank top seven in touchdown drive rate.

Goff’s quick release (2.56-second average time to throw, tying for No. 5) and elite accuracy (81.3% adjusted completion rate, No. 1) combine for the position’s 10th-best yards per passing attempt (7.4) average, ranked among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks. His talents will be on full display against a Los Angeles pass defense surrendering 6.37 yards per coverage snap in Weeks 3-9 (after former Los Angeles cornerback J.C. Jackson (37.3 PFF coverage grade) was shutdown pre-trade), the 20th-most among NFL teams. The unit helpfully offers the No. 18-ranked catch rate allowed (70.8%) and the No. 15-ranked explosive pass plays allowed rate (12.8%).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects No. 1/slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (84.4 PFF receiving grade) to face Los Angeles slot cornerback Ja’Sir Taylor (57.6 PFF coverage grade) on 20-of-34 receiving snaps, giving St. Brown an excellent 89.9 receiving matchup advantage rating.

Goff is a mid-tier Week 10 QB1.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Watson (68.3 PFF offense grade) is just a mid-tier QB2 against Baltimore’s league-best pass-rush and coverage units. He is without both left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (60.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, injured reserve) and right tackle Jack Conklin (78.9 PFF pass-blocking grade, injured reserve).

The game’s 38.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for the third-lowest on the week and Cleveland is implied to score just 16.25 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Cleveland a -5.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, the 10th-worst on the week. 

Baltimore has a chance to return free safety Marcus Williams (60.1 PFF coverage grade, hamstring strain) to its already-elite secondary in Week 10.

Among 64 NFL safeties with at least 180 coverage snaps, Baltimore safety Geno Stone’s 90.5 PFF coverage grade leads the position by 2.2.

Baltimore’s pass-rush and coverage data among NFL teams:

Watson’s middling overall passing numbers accurately reflect his pedestrian 2023 performances. Although Watson successfully extends plays when blitzed and frequently targets pass catchers past the sticks, his results communicate a near-complete inability to make good on those attempts.

Watson’s passing data among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks and his passing data when blitzed among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 blitzed dropbacks:

Watson should not be started in 12-team leagues.

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers

Lawrence (81.5 PFF passing grade) faces insurmountable odds against San Francisco’s elite pass rush and safety play. He’s a mid-tier QB2. 

FanDuel implies Jacksonville to score 21.25 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Jacksonville a -63.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 10’s second-worst. Jacksonville left guard Tyler Shatley’s 49.1 PFF pass-blocking grade and center Luke Fortner’s 53.3 PFF pass-blocking grade both rank outside the top 65 among NFL guards and centers with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps. The interior duo presents a flood-gate-like opening for San Francisco’s elite four-deep interior defender rotation — Javon Hargrave (89.8 PFF pass-rush grade), Javon Kinlaw (80.9 PFF pass-rush grade), Arik Armstead  (78.9 PFF pass-rush grade) and Kevin Givens (74.4 PFF pass-rush grade) all boast top-20 PFF pass-rush grade, ranked among 97 interior defenders with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps. 

San Francisco general manager John Lynch recently traded for former Washington edge rusher Chase Young (79.7 PFF pass-rush grade), further bolstering the league’s No. 4-graded edge rusher unit (84.6 PFF pass-rush grade).

Among 64 NFL safeties with at least 190 coverage snaps, San Francisco safeties Tashaun Gipson Sr. (66.5 PFF coverage grade) and Talanoa Hufanga (68.5 PFF coverage grade) astonishingly rank top 10 in both yards allowed per coverage snap and explosive pass plays allowed rate; Gipson Sr.’s respective 0.12 and 0.3% ranks Nos. 1 and 2 while Hufanga’s 0.22 and 0.7% rank No. 4 and tie for No. 9, respectively.

Lawrence admirably keeps his eyes downfield under pressure, throwing past the sticks on 55.9% of pressured passing attempts, No. 1 among 31 NFL quarterbacks with at least 65 pressured dropbacks. His No. 25-ranked 5.9% turnover-worthy play rate and 58.8% adjusted competition rate when pressured spell doom though.

Lawrence cannot be trusted to return Week 10-QB1 value.

Streamer of the Week

QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

Wilson (68.2 PFF passing grade) and his mid-tier pass-catching corps are primed for a fruitful outing against Buffalo’s injury-depleted defense. Buffalo’s elite offense reinforces Denver’s high-volume-passing potential. Wilson is a streaming QB1. 

The game’s 47.0-point FanDuel over/under is Week 10’s second-highest game total.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Denver a 24.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, the third-best on the week. Buffalo’s top-graded pass rusher DaQuan Jones (89.5 PFF pass-rush grade) to injured reserve in Week 6. Among 116 edge rushers with at least 70 pass-rushing snaps, Jones ranks No. 1 in pass-rush win rate (23.0%), quarterback pressure rate (20.3%) and pass-rush productivity (12.2). 

Buffalo will likely be without both Week 1 starting linebackers Matt Milano (73.0 PFF defense grade, injured reserve) and Terrel Bernard (67.1 PFF defense grade, concussion protocol) and the secondary is in a near-equally tattered state; safety Jordan Poyer (74.1 PFF coverage grade) and slot cornerback Taron Johnson (67.0 PFF coverage grade) are the unit’s only healthy starters. Head coach Sean McDermott was pessimistic about the unit’s Week 10 turnaround when interviewed on Monday.

Wilson’s No. 6-ranked big-time-throw rate (5.6%) and adjusted completion (78.9%) rate bode well against Buffalo’s No. 27-ranked 15.5% explosive pass plays allowed rate. 

Buffalo’s 6.4 offensive plays per drive ties for No. 6 and their 43.0% scoring drive rate ranks No. 4. Both factors should elevate Denver from their middling 6.0 offensive plays per drive average.

Wilson is a streaming QB1.