Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 16 rankings and more

• QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins: Prescott is an elite QB1 in a fantasy-friendly matchup against Miami.

• QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders @ New York Jets: Howell is a low-end QB2 against New York’s excellent defense.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

NFL Week 16 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in their range of outcomes.

QB Matchups to Target

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott finished outside the position’s top 12 in consecutive weeks after producing top-four results in six of seven games prior. He gets an extreme bounce-back opportunity in Week 16 when Dallas' and Miami’s juggernaut offenses meet. Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 140 dropbacks, Prescott’s 88.5 PFF passing grade ranks second only to Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s 90.9 PFF passing grade.

The game’s 51.0-point over/under is Week 16’s highest game total. FanDuel implies Dallas will score 24.75 points as 1.5-point road underdogs.

Both Dallas’ (45.4%) and Miami’s (48.0%) offensive success rates rank in the top six among NFL teams, and their respective expected points added per play figures (0.088 and 0.096) and explosive pass play rates (16.0% and 20.6%) rank in the top four. This game will bring a high-scoring, fantasy-friendly environment.

Injuries plague Miami’s defense. The unit lost both edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and coverage linebacker Jerome Baker to injured reserve over the past three weeks. Among eight Miami edge rushers and interior defenders with at least 100 defensive snaps, Phillips’ 79.3 PFF defense grade ranks third. And among 65 NFL linebackers with at least 230 coverage snaps, Baker’s 71.2 PFF coverage grade ranks 19th.

MCL sprains in both knees have sidelined safety Jevon Holland since Week 12, and safety DeShon Elliott (concussion) and cornerback Xavien Howard (hip) missed Week 15. Among 68 NFL safeties with at least 300 coverage snaps, Holland’s 90.7 PFF coverage grade ranks first and Elliott’s 66.0 PFF coverage grade ranks 32nd. Howard (55.9 PFF coverage grade) is a liability on the perimeter, but backup Eli Apple (49.4 PFF coverage grade) is even worse.

Miami’s 71.8% completion rate allowed ties for 23rd among NFL teams.

While some Dolphins starters may return, Prescott should pick apart the weakened unit on good passing volume.

The table below ranks in parentheses Prescott’s passing data among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 140 dropbacks.

Prescott is an elite QB1 with an excellent bounce-back opportunity this week.

QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Detroit quarterback Jared Goff is a mid-tier quarterback facing Minnesota’s blitz-based defense, playing within U.S. Bank Stadium’s comfortable confines. Goff’s 86.9 PFF indoor passing grade this season ranks third among 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 indoor dropbacks.

The game’s 46.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 16’s second-highest game total. FanDuel implies Detroit will score 24.75 points as 3.0-point road favorites.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Detroit a 38.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 16’s best.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives No. 1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown a good 81.9 receiving matchup rating against Minnesota’s cornerbacks.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Sam LaPorta a 10.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Minnesota linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., whose 84.4% catch rate allowed ranks 56th among 64 NFL linebackers with at least 220 coverage snaps.

Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson calls play-action passing plays on 29.3% of Goff’s indoor dropbacks and just 18.9% of his outdoor dropbacks, which bodes well for the quarterback's volume in Week 16.

Among 20 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 indoor play-action dropbacks, Goff’s 85.1 PFF passing grade and his 9.5 yards per passing attempt both rank fifth. His 81.5% adjusted completion rate ranks eighth, and he boasts a perfect 0.0% turnover-worthy play rate.

Minnesota’s ineffective high-volume blitz tactics only reinforce Goff’s passing prospects. Minnesota’s 54.5% blitz rate leads the NFL by more than 6 percentage points, but the unit ranks 25th or worse in all major blitz-based pass-rush metrics — pass-rush win rate (37.4%), quarterback pressure rate (37.1%) and pass-rush productivity (29.0). Among 26 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 blitzed indoor dropbacks, Goff ties for 14th in adjusted completion rate (75.0%) and ranks seventh in yards per passing attempt (8.3).

Minnesota’s pass defense is quick to close on the ball but ranks dead last in completion rate allowed (75.3%) and 24th in forced incompletion rate (8.5%).

Among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 445 receiving snaps, St. Brown ranks fourth in yards after the catch per reception (5.3). Among 33 NFL tight ends with at least 230 receiving snaps, LaPorta ties for seventh in missed tackles forced (11). Among 28 NFL running backs with at least 200 receiving snaps, running back Jahmyr Gibbs’ 66.6 PFF receiving grade and 11 missed tackles forced receiving respectively rank and tie for ninth.

Goff is a mid-tier QB1 in Week 16.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders @ New York Jets

Washington quarterback Sam Howell’s 62.0 PFF passing grade ranks 28th among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 140 dropbacks, and he was understandably benched for backup Jacoby Brissett (90.7 PFF passing grade) last week. Washington head coach Ron Rivera affirmed Howell's status as the starting quarterback despite Brissett’s superior showing. Howell’s potential job security combined with a brutal matchup against New York’s lockdown defense renders him a low-end Week 16 QB2.

The game’s 38.0-point FanDuel over/under is Week 16’s third-lowest. FanDuel implies Washington will score 17.5 points.

New York’s defense ranks second in success rate allowed (37.4%) and fourth in EPA allowed per play (-0.121).

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Washington a -31.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 16’s fifth-worst mark.

New York blitzes at the league’s lowest rate (16.8%) but ranks in the top five in pass-rush win rate (57.2%), quarterback pressure rate (40.4%) and pass-rush productivity (32.8), and Howell badly struggles on non-blitzed, pressured dropbacks. Among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 non-blitzed, pressured dropbacks, Howell’s seven interceptions and 37 sacks are both league-high figures. His nine turnover-worthy plays tie for the fourth most, and his 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate is the 12th highest.

New York’s pass defense ranks 11th in both completion rate allowed (68.4%) and interception rate (2.8%), sixth in explosive pass plays allowed rate (11.2%), fourth in forced incompletion rate (11.8%) and third in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.25).

Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 140 dropbacks, Howell ranks 30th in turnover-worthy play rate (3.6%), 27th in yards per passing attempt (6.7), 19th in past-the-sticks throwing rate (39.4%) and 17th in adjusted completion rate (75.4%).

Howell is a low-end QB2.

QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Denver quarterback Russell Wilson finished as the QB10-QB11 in fantasy scoring in four of six games since Denver’s Week 9 bye, but his likely low-scoring Week 16 matchup against New England is unlikely to deliver top-12 results. Both the expected game script and New England’s blitzing tactics work against him.

The game’s 34.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 16’s lowest game total. FanDuel implies Denver will score just 20.5 points as 6.5-point home favorites, signaling a run-heavy offensive approach. Denver’s 41.0% run play rate ranks 11th among NFL teams, and the frequency jumps to 47.0% (18th) when leading by three-plus points and increases further to 48.8% (15th) when leading by six or more.

Wilson’s cause is further complicated by Denver’s offensive ineffectiveness when winning by six or more points. The team ranks 24th in success rate (36.0%), 26th in average plays per drive (4.8), 29th in conversion rate (20.7%) and 30th in EPA per play in such situations. And the team's 50.0% punt rate ties for the sixth highest among NFL teams when leading by six-plus points. Head coach Sean Payton opts to incrementally kill the clock before punting the ball away after failing to convert.

New England is highly unlikely to push Denver into a pass-heavy game script, in part due to Denver’s moderate defensive resurgence. New England’s offense ranks 24th in success rate (40.2%), 30th in EPA per play (-0.196) and dead last in scoring drive rate (20.9%). Over the past six weeks, Denver’s defense ranks 23rd in success rate allowed (45.1%), 12th in EPA allowed per play (-0.079) and 11th in scoring drive allowed rate (32.4%).

New England’s mid-tier pass defense ranks 16th in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.10) and 13th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (12.7%), and the unit manufactures pass-rush productivity (32.2 via the blitz, 17th) by blitzing at the league’s fourth-highest rate (42.1%).

Wilson’s passing performance against the blitz is uninspiring. He ranks 21st in big-time throw rate (3.8%), 16th in turnover-worthy play rate (2.6%), 31st in short-of-the-sticks throwing rate (51.9%) and tied for 19th in yards per passing attempt (6.9).

Streamer of the Week

QB Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

Through two games of action, Minnesota quarterback Nick Mullens’ 66.3 PFF passing grade respectably ranks 26th among 53 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 dropbacks. Mullens is a high-end QB2 with top-12 upside against Detroit’s defense thanks to the offensive and defensive play-action dynamics, Mullens’ accuracy and Minnesota’s pass-catching personnel matchups.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Minnesota an 18.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 16’s sixth-best mark.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has called play-action passing attempts on a league-leading 43.1% of Mullens’ 51 dropbacks — 10.6 percentage points higher than any of the other 53 qualifying NFL quarterbacks. Mullens’ average depth of target, past-the-sticks throwing rate and big-time throw rate jump from 6.1 yards, 29.2% and 0.0%, respectively, on non-play-action passing attempts to 9.4, 54.5% and 4.5%, respectively, on play-action passing attempts. And Detroit’s play-action coverage is among the league’s worst. The unit ranks or ties for 23rd across the board in play-action success rate allowed (51.3%), yards allowed per coverage snap (7.64) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (21.1%).

Mullens throws accurately regardless, frequently working the short to intermediate parts of the field. His 79.5% adjusted completion rate ranks third among 53 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 dropbacks.

Much like Mullens’ Week 16 counterpart, Detroit quarterback Jared Goff, Mullens is armed with talented pass catchers.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison respectively excellent 89.6 and average 61.5 receiving matchup ratings against Detroit’s cornerbacks.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives T.J. Hockenson a 32.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Detroit linebacker Alex Anzalone, whose 66.3 PFF coverage grade ranks 29th among 64 NFL linebackers with at least 220 coverage snaps.

Vikings running back Ty Chandler’s 9.4 yards after the catch per reception figure ranks 15th among 66 NFL running backs with at least 85 receiving snaps, and Lions linebackers and safeties have missed 32 tackles in coverage, tying for the second most in the NFL. O’Connell recently told reporters Chandler will see a “featured role” in the offense.

Mullens is a high-end QB2 with top-12 upside.