Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 14 rankings and more

• QB Jared Goff (84.0 PFF offense grade), Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears: The game’s fantasy-friendly scoring environment and Chicago's soft defense solidify Goff’s status as a Week 14 QB1.

• QB Russell Wilson (72.6 PFF passing grade), Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers: Denver likely employs a run-heavy approach that reduces Wilson’s fantasy football scoring potential.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

NFL Week 14 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in his range of outcomes.

QB Matchups to Target

QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Detroit quarterback Jared Goff (84.0 PFF offense grade) is a mid-tier QB1 against Chicago’s bottom-tier defense.

The game’s 42.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 14’s fifth highest. FanDuel implies Detroit to score 22.75 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Detroit a 33.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 14’s third best.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Detroit slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (88.6 PFF receiving grade) a good 78.9 receiving matchup advantage rating over Chicago slot cornerback Kyler Gordon (62.2 PFF coverage grade), Week 14’s 11th best.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives tight end Sam LaPorta (77.5 PFF receiving grade) a 29.0% receiving matchup advantage rating over Chicago linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (53.0 PFF coverage grade), Week 14’s fourth best.

Detroit’s offense ranks in the top five in offensive plays per drive (6.1) and per game (67.5), success rate (46.0%), expected points added per play (0.075) and touchdown-scoring drive rate (29.3%). Chicago’s offense ranks 14th or better in offensive plays per drive (6.1) and per game (64.7), success rate (44.2%) and overall scoring drive rate (36.7%), ensuring a high-volume offensive game environment.

Goff’s 82.8 PFF passing grade ranks eighth among 36 NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, and he ranks seventh in average time to throw (2.59 seconds), sixth in yards per passing attempt (7.6) and fourth in adjusted completion rate (79.7%).

Chicago’s ineffectual pass rush ranks dead last in both pass-run win rate (33.1%) and pass-rush productivity (22.7) this season. The team's coverage unit struggles to pick up the slack, ranking 26th, 24th and 21st in catch rate allowed (73.3%), EPA allowed per pass play (0.054) and yards allowed per coverage snap (6.30), respectively.

Goff typically operates via short-to-intermediate-depth passes, but the matchup should facilitate pressure-free downfield opportunities. His 95.5 PFF pressure-free passing grade on passes traveling at least 15 yards downfield ranks sixth among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 pressure-free passing attempts traveling at least 15 yards downfield. His 26.5% big-time-throw rate ranks eighth and his 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate ranks second.

Goff is a mid-tier QB1.

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love (78.5 PFF offense grade) should extend his four-week top-12 fantasy-scoring stretch against a New York defense missing linchpin interior defender Dexter Lawrence (92.8 PFF defense grade), who remains unable to practice following his Week 11 hamstring strain.

FanDuel implies Green Bay to score 22.0 points. Green Bay’s offensive 0.137 EPA per play in Weeks 10-13 ranks fourth in the NFL over the span.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Green Bay a 47.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 14’s best. Among 63 NFL interior defenders and edge rushers with at least 300 pass-rushing snaps, Lawrence ranks seventh in pass-rush win rate (20.0%) and quarterback pressure rate (16.8%) and 11th in pass-rush productivity (9.2). Among 67 NFL interior defenders with at least 150 run-defense snaps, Lawrence’s 22 stops tie for ninth. His absence ensures comfortable pockets for Love.

Love’s top-12 scoring stretch in Weeks 10-13 is dotted with top-12 performance marks. Among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks during that span, Love ranks 12th in adjusted completion rate (76.5%), 11th in yards per passing attempt (7.7), 10th in past-the-sticks throwing rate (40.5%) and turnover-worthy play rate (1.8%) and second in big-time-throw rate (8.5%).

Love likewise ties for 12th in first-down-plus-touchdown rate via rushing (30.0%) and ranks fifth in yards per rushing attempt (5.4) among 19 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 rushing attempts in Weeks 10-13.

New York’s defensive front underwhelmed long before Lawrence’s injury. The defense ranks 23rd or worse in pass-rush win rate (38.0%), pass-rush productivity (23.6), success rate allowed via quarterback rushing (38.5%) and average depth of tackle on quarterback rushes (4.00).

New York’s coverage defense also fails to inspire, ranking outside the top 20 in success rate allowed (46.4%), yards allowed per coverage snap (6.52) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (14.0%).

Love is a locked-in QB1 against New York.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Denver quarterback Russell Wilson (72.6 PFF passing grade) cannot be started in single-quarterback fantasy leagues against Los Angeles’ blitz-happy defense.

FanDuel implies Denver to score just 20.5 points.

Los Angeles lost four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Joey Bosa (80.3 PFF pass-rush grade) to injured reserve following a Week 11 foot sprain, prompting head coach Brandon Staley to call blitzes at the league’s third-highest rate in Weeks 11-13 (51.8%). Staley’s pass rush ranks 15th in pass-rush win rate (46.4%), 14th in quarterback pressure rate (37.5%) and pass-rush productivity (29.0) and sixth in NFL sacks (10.0) during that span, despite facing mobile passers like the Green Bay Packers‘ Jordan Love (78.5 PFF offense grade) and the Baltimore Ravens‘ Lamar Jackson (85.7 PFF offense grade).

Wilson effectively gets rid of the ball when blitzed, but his methods yield poor results. Denver's passing offense ranks 22nd in success rate when blitzed (42.3%) and 30th in EPA (-0.285).

The table below ranks in parentheses Wilson’s blitzed passing data among 37 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 blitzed dropbacks.

Denver’s conservative offense averages just 5.4 plays per drive, the fourth fewest in the NFL, and Los Angeles’ vulnerable run defense provides Denver head coach Sean Payton an advantageous dynamic. Los Angeles’ run defense ranks second in success rate allowed (40.1%) and 26th in EPA allowed per run play (-0.030).

Wilson should be ranked outside the position’s top 12 in Week 14.

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert (83.0 PFF passing grade) profiles as just a borderline QB1/2 in a likely low-volume game environment against Denver. Herbert has struggled to produce, throwing passes to a lacking wide receiver corps over the past five weeks. Herbert’s moderate rushing volume could salvage his fantasy outing, but Denver’s post-Week 9-bye defensive performance and clock-killing ground game reduce Herbert’s ceiling-game odds.

Among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks in Weeks 9-13, Herbert’s 6.8 yards per passing attempt mark ranks just 28th. Both his aggressiveness and accuracy fail to reassure. He ties for 15th in adjusted completion rate (76.3%) and ranks 18th or worse in both average depth of target (7.8) and past-the-sticks throwing rate (37.1%).

Denver’s blanketing coverage performance in Weeks 10-13 ranks 14th in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.99), ninth in success rate allowed (41.5%), fourth in EPA allowed per pass play (-0.168) and first in catch rate allowed (61.5%).

The Broncos' fourth-ranked post-bye 40.9% blitz rate helped them generate an 11th-ranked 30.6 pass-rush productivity and a top-six 11.0 NFL sack total. Among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 blitzed dropbacks in Weeks 9-13, Herbert ranks 24th in yards per passing attempt (6.1) and 31st in adjusted completion rate (62.3%).

The Denver offense's 40.7% run-play rate ranks 12th and its 14.9% explosive run-play rate ranks second. The unit should churn through a Los Angeles defense that ranks 21st in rushing success rate allowed (40.1%) and 26th in explosive run plays allowed rate (-0.030). The dynamic likely tilts possession time in Denver’s favor. Opponents have averaged just 5.5 offensive plays per drive against Denver since their Week 9 bye, the ninth fewest among NFL teams.

Herbert’s 23 rushing attempts and 6.4 yards per rushing attempt rank seventh and sixth, respectively, among 27 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 rushing attempts over the past five weeks, but the passing matchup disadvantages prevent him from retaining a safe QB1 ranking this week.

Herbert is just a borderline QB1/2 in Week 14.

Streamer of the Week

QB Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor’s quick-hitting play designs push fill-in quarterback Jake Browning (70.1 PFF offense grade) onto the streaming-quarterback radar against Indianapolis’ soft short-area perimeter coverage unit. Browning’s rushing volume and efficiency helpfully increase both his floor and ceiling.

Taylor’s smart scheming couples well with Browning’s excellent execution in Cincinnati, ranking 14th in success rate (43.6%) and ninth in EPA per play (0.080).

Among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 90 dropbacks, Browning’s 5.8-yard average depth of target ranks dead last and his 82.2% adjusted completion rate ranks first. Crucially, his 8.3 yards per passing attempt ranks fourth and his performance astonishingly remains elite when pressured. Among 45 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 pressured dropbacks, Browning’s 8.8 yards per passing attempt ranks first.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (88.4 PFF receiving grade) a good 84.5 receiving matchup advantage rating against Indianapolis' cornerbacks, Week 14’s seventh-best rating.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Cincinnati tight end Tanner Hudson (74.2 PFF receiving grade) a 15.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Indianapolis linebacker E.J. Speed (54.7 PFF coverage grade), tying for Week 14’s eighth best.

Rookie No. 1 cornerback JuJu Brents (66.5 PFF coverage grade) has failed to practice since straining his quadriceps in Week 7, hampering the Colts' ability to slow Chase on the perimeter. On passes thrown one-to-nine yards downfield, Indianapolis’ perimeter cornerback unit ranks 30th in success rate allowed (62.1%), ties for 24th in yards allowed per coverage snap (2.14) and ranks 19th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.7%).

Indianapolis’ inconsistent pass rush ranks 20th in success rate allowed (46.3%), seventh in pass-rush win rate (48.6%) and 26th in quarterback pressure rate (31.9%). PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Cincinnati a -23.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating. In the event Indianapolis capitalizes, Browning has already proved his bona fides against pressure.

Browning’s 80.4 PFF rushing grade ranks eighth among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 rushing attempts. He ranks first in yards per rushing attempt (7.0) and yards after contact per rushing attempt (7.4) and seventh in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.2).

Browning is Week 14’s streamer of the week.