• QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos: Smith will pick apart Denver’s lackluster coverage personnel.
• Cincinnati Bengals D/ST vs. New England Patriots: Cincinnati’s pass rush headlines the team’s Week 1 matchup.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Streamable NFL quarterbacks and defense/special teams (D/ST) units are frequently available via the waiver wire, allowing savvy fantasy managers to add and drop both positions based on the assets’ weekly matchups. The article below breaks down two NFL quarterbacks and two D/ST units available in roughly 50.0% of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is Week 1’s top quarterback streamer, benefiting from the Denver Broncos’ injury-weakened secondary, defensive personnel turnover and an up-and-coming offense capable of pushing Seattle’s offensive pace and passing rate. Smith’s downfield passing talents will be on full display in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s new scheme. Smith’s 83.5 PFF offense grade ties for 13th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 475 offensive snaps.
PFF Greenline lists Seattle as a -6.0-point home favorite, implied to score 24.0 points.
As detailed in a previous article, Smith perfectly fits Grubb’s downfield passing offense, featuring three-receiver sets (11 personnel). Among 36 NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 passing attempts thrown 10-plus yards downfield, Smith’s 93.4 PFF passing grade and 11.2 yards per passing attempt both rank 12th, his 54.0% completion rate ranks seventh and his 17.3% big-time throw rate rank fourth.
Smith’s 11 personnel corps is an exceptionally skilled downfield group, as detailed in the article linked above and NFC West’s best fantasy football draft pick, which features second-year slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba averages 14.8 yards per reception and a 71.1 PFF receiving grade on qualifying targets.
As detailed in previously, Denver’s new starting safeties Brandon Jones and P.J. Locke support a cornerback unit that replaces No. 2 perimeter cornerback Damarri Mathis (high-ankle sprain, short-term injured reserve, 36.7 PFF perimeter-coverage grade) with journeyman cornerback Levi Wallace “[who] surrendered 32 explosive pass plays over the last two seasons.” Among 84 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 220 perimeter coverage snaps, Wallace’s 62.0 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 53rd.
No. 1 cornerback Pat Surtain and slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian produced four per-play coverage statistics ranking outside the top 20 of their respective, perimeter cornerback and slot defensive back position groups last year. Surtain’s 63.5 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 38th among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter coverage snaps. McMillian’s 58.7 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 31st among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps.
Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix‘s 80.4 PFF offense grade ranks sixth among 50 NFL quarterbacks with at least 55 offensive snaps during the preseason. He demonstrated the requisite skillset to run head coach Sean Payton’s quick-hitting passing game. Nix will help push Seattle’s offensive pace and passing rate.
Smith is Week 1’s top quarterback streamer.
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield faces the Washington Commanders’ league-worst secondary. The matchup should yield an efficient outing featuring routine explosive gains. Mayfield’s 74.8 PFF passing grade ranks 18th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks in 2023.
PFF Greenline lists Tampa Bay as a -3.5-point home favorite, implied to score 23.5 points.
Mayfield is protected by PFF senior fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke’s 18th-ranked pass-protection unit.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Tampa Bay's No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans an excellent 88.1 receiving matchup advantage rating against Washington cornerbacks, the third-best among NFL wide receivers. Slot receiver Chris Godwin’s good 82.1 receiving matchup advantage rating ranks 10th.
As detailed previously, Tampa Bay’s third-round rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan excelled in his preseason perimeter role. His 82.5 PFF preseason offense grade ranks eighth among 231 NFL wide receivers with at least 29 offensive snaps. McMillan is flex-viable against Washington.
As detailed previously, Washington cornerbacks Benjamin St-Juste and Emmanuel Forbes are among the league’s absolute worst perimeter coverage defenders, though free agent signee Michael Davis leapfrogged Forbes for the starting role. Among 73 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 280 perimeter-coverage snaps, St-Juste’s 52.6 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 67th and Forbes’ 64.4 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 41st. St-Juste’s 21 explosive pass plays allowed ties for second-most among NFL cornerbacks. Forbes’ 18 ties for 12th.
Davis earned a 54.3 PFF coverage grade last year, his second sub-55.0 PFF coverage grade over the last three seasons. He ties Forbes with 18 explosive pass plays allowed.
Starting safeties Jeremy Chinn and Quan Martin offer little support. Among 107 NFL safeties with at least 135 coverage snaps, Chinn’s 1.21 yards allowed per coverage snap rank 103rd while Martin’s 1.29 is tied for 104th. Chinn’s 48.3 PFF coverage grade ranks 102nd and Martin’s 58.8 PFF coverage grade ranks 79th.
Mayfield will play efficiently as a Week 1 quarterback streamer.
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST vs. New England Patriots
The Cincinnati Bengals D/ST unit is Week 1’s top streaming defense. Both its pass rush and secondary will get ample opportunities to hunt for sacks and interceptions against the New England Patriots. Cincinnati’s 68.7 PFF defense grade ranks 25th among NFL defenses in 2023.
PFF Greenline lists Cincinnati with a league-high -8.5-point home-favorite point spread. New England is implied to score just 16.0 points.
Jahnke ranks New England’s offense line as the sixth-worth pass-blocking unit in the NFL.
Cincinnati‘s No. 1 edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is aided by situational edge rusher Joseph Ossai and interior defenders Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill. Among 64 NFL edge rushers with at least 295 pass-rushing snaps in 2023, Hendrickson ranks eighth or better in pass-rush win rate (20.8%), quarterback pressure rate (17.8%) and pass-rush productivity (11.2). His 90.7 PFF pass-rush grade ranks sixth. Ossai (109 pass-rushing snaps) earned a 64.1 PFF pass-rush grade. Among 65 NFL interior defenders with at least 275 pass-rushing snaps in 2023, Sheldon Rankins’ 74.7 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 25th and B.J. Hill’s 65.8 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 44th.
Cincinnati’s secondary blitzes effectively, ranking 15th or better among NFL secondaries in quarterback pressure rate (22.8%) and pass-rushing productivity (13.5).
New England’s journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett totaled 290 pressured dropbacks over the last three seasons. His 5.2% turnover-worthy play rate ranks 23rd among 30 NFL quarterbacks with at least 290 pressured dropbacks from 2021 to 2023. His 85.3 PFF offense grade during that span ranks 15th among 36 NFL quarterbacks with at least 1,100 offensive snaps from 2021 to 2023.
Cincinnati’s new No. 1 perimeter cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt’s 73.0 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 19th among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter-coverage snaps in 2023. His 7.8% interceptions per target rate ranks fourth. Cincinnati slot cornerback Mike Hilton’s 75.9 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 11th among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps in 2023. His 10.6% forced incompletion rate ranks 13th and his 1.5% interceptions per target rate ranks 17th.
Cincinnati’s D/ST unit should rack up sacks and interceptions against New England.
Chicago Bears D/ST vs. Tennessee Titans
The Chicago Bears’ D/ST unit will have an active day in pass defense, taking on the Tennessee Titans’ shaky offensive line and scattershot young quarterback Will Levis. Chicago’s 64.7 PFF defense grade ranks 29th among NFL defenses in 2023. Levis’ 61.5 PFF passing grade ranks 25th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks.
PFF Greenline lists Chicago as a -4.5-point home favorite. Tennessee is implied to score 20.5 points.
Jahnke ranks Tennessee’s line as the third-worst pass-protection unit. Chicago’s 2023 Pro Bowl defensive-left edge rusher Montez Sweat will spend the game bullying Tennessee’s worst offensive lineman, third-year right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere, whose 46.0 PFF pass-blocking grade over the last two seasons ranks second-worst among 64 NFL tackles with at least 950 offensive snaps from 2022 to 2023. Chicago acquired Sweat via trade in Week 9, 2023. Among 32 NFL edge rushers with at least 240 pass-rushing snaps from Weeks 9-Super Bowl LVIII, Sweat ranks 15th or better in pass-rush win rate (14.5%), quarterback pressure rate (13.8%) and pass-rush productivity (8.4). His 70.3 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 23rd.
Tennessee left guard Peter Skoronski and right tackle-to-right guard convert Dillon Radunz man the interior. Skoronski’s 63.5 PFF pass-blocking grade ties for 27th among 64 NFL guards with at least 500 offensive snaps in 2023. Radunz earned an uninspiring 57.1 PFF pass-blocking grade on 177 right guard offensive snaps through his three-year career. Chicago linebacker T.J. Edwards should effectively knife past the two players. His 80.0 PFF pass-rush grade on blitzes ranks fourth among 32 NFL linebackers with at least 55 blitz snaps in 2023.
Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks in 2023, Levis ranks dead last in completion rate (58.4%) and third-worst in turnover-worthy play rate (4.5%). His 21.5% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 26th among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks in 2023.
Chicago perimeter cornerback Jaylon Johnson broke out in his fourth season last year, earning second-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors. Among 34 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 435 perimeter-coverage snaps, Johnson ranks 11th in forced incompletion rate (17.0%), fourth in catch rate allowed (51.1%), second in targeted rate (9.8%) and interceptions per coverage target rate (8.5%) and first in both yards allowed per coverage snap (0.38) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.4%). His 90.4 PFF perimeter coverage grade likewise ranks No. 1 overall.
Chicago’s third-year strong safety Jaquan Brisker has already established himself as one of the league’s best hard-hitting coverage defenders. His 65.5 PFF coverage grade ranks 46th among 64 NFL safeties with at least 695 coverage snaps from 2022 to 2023. His 69.4 PFF run-defense grade ranks 31st among 65 NFL safeties with at least 440 run-defense snaps from 2022 to 2023 and his 32 run-defense stops tie for seventh.
Chicago slot cornerback Kyler Gordon’s 68.9 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 18th among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps in 2023 and his 3.7% interceptions per coverage target rate ranks second.
Chicago’s D/ST should finish as a high-scoring unit in Week 1.
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