Predicting top 2022 rookie wide receivers using dominator rating and breakout age

Unfortunately, there is no end-all, be-all statistic, grade or metric that can pinpoint the NFL's next great rookie wide receiver. Every college star doesn't make the jump to the next level, and a player's landing spot plays a huge part in how a player develops in the NFL.

Even so, dynasty gamers must try to project which 2022 NFL Draft rookie WRs will break out in 2022 fantasy football leagues. And when it comes down to finding the next Ja’Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St.Brown of the 2022 NFL Draft class, fantasy football managers can lean on two specific metrics when considering which rookie wide receivers to target in drafts: dominator rating and breakout age.

Dominator rating considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a particular player commands within his own offense. Breakout age is the age in which a receiver reaches a 20% dominator rating for the first time. Producing at a young age is a solid indication that a player will continue his stretch of production into the pros. After all, when a kid balls out at 19 years old against a bunch of 21- and 22-year-old defensive backs, how can you not be entertained?

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I’ve collected the dominator ratings and breakout ages of 22 rookie wide receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft class hoping to identify some lesser-known WRs to target and others to fade in upcoming rookie drafts.

COLLEGE-CAREER DOMINATOR RATING

Rank	Player	Class	School	Career Dominator Rating	PFF Receiving Grade
1	Dai'Jean Dixon	Senior	Nicholls	39%	93.0
2	Treylon Burks	Junior	Arkansas	32%	91.3
3	Jalen Tolbert	Senior	South Alabama	31%	85.9
4	Wan’Dale Robinson	Junior	Kentucky	28%	93.4
5	Skyy Moore	Junior	Western Michigan	28%	91.5
6	David Bell	Junior	Purdue	28%	89.6
7	Jahan Dotson	Senior	Penn State	26%	83.1
8	Khalil Shakir	Senior	Boise State	25%	92.9
9	Romeo Doubs	Senior	Nevada	24%	83.7
10	Justyn Ross	Senior	Clemson	22%	89.6
11	Christian Watson	Senior	North Dakota State	21%	83.1
12	Drake London	Junior	USC	21%	86.9
13	Garrett Wilson	Junior	Ohio State	20%	89.1
14	Chris Olave	Senior	Ohio State	20%	90.5
15	Makai Polk	Junior	Mississippi State	19%	68.4
16	John Metchie III	Junior	Alabama	18%	77.6
17	George Pickens	Junior	Georgia	18%	85.4
18	Calvin Austin III	Senior	Memphis	18%	87.7
19	Erik Ezukanma	Senior	Texas Tech	18%	75.5
20	Devon Williams	Junior	Oregon	18%	76.3
21	Jalen Nailor	Senior	Michigan State	17%	70.5
22	Jameson Williams	Junior	Alabama	16%	77.7

Treylon Burks is the consensus No. 1-ranked rookie wide receiver across dynasty platforms, largely because of his exquisite college production profile. His 32% dominator rating is the second-highest among the 22 wide receivers sampled and falls just short of 2020’s dominator rating king Rashod Bateman (35%).

I agreed with football analytics Twitter — and the numbers-driven Baltimore Ravens — that Bateman would be the next superstar wide receiver because of his elite collegiate output. And although Bateman’s rookie season didn’t confirm his path to stardom, he did show enough for fantasy managers to be excited about him going into his second season.

That same production-based enthusiasm is driving Burks’ rookie ADP. Can’t say I blame the market — Burks finished first in yards per route run (3.57) while also leading all receivers in yards per route run when lined up outside (6.08).

But despite Burks’ college triumphs, there was one small-school receiver who actually finished with a higher college dominator rating: Dai'Jean Dixon. The Nicholls State wide receiver spent the last four seasons bullying Southland Conference defenses to the tune of a 39% dominator rating (1st) and 93.0 PFF receiving grade (2nd).

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Dixon finished as a top-six graded wide receiver in the nation twice over the last three years. He achieved a whopping 49% dominator rating in 2019.

Obviously, Dixon’s eye-popping numbers do come with a grain of salt because of the lackluster competition he faced. But anytime the 6-foot-2, 203-pound wide receiver has been tasked to go out and ball, he has delivered. His playmaking ability was on full display in the most recent 2022 NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.

Dixon caught six of seven passes for 131 receiving yards and a touchdown in the all-star game.

.@Aqeel_Glass4 throws a 🎯 to Dai’Jean Dixon for the American Team TD!@AamufbR @GeauxColonels

📺: @NFLPABowl on NFL Network pic.twitter.com/03lE9wPVIK

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 29, 2022

Consider Dixon my favorite deep sleeper of the 2022 wide receiver draft class.