As always, this article will seek out players who have been making the most of their opportunities, and opponents who have been giving up a ton of fantasy points per opportunity. Fantasy points per opportunity is a fantastic stat to use for identifying potential blowup spots for fantasy players.
Michael Crabtree leads all qualifying fantasy wideouts with 0.50 fantasy PPO. The Chiefs, his Week 7 opponent, have given up the second-most PPO to opposing wideouts. See where I’m going with this?
Here is the PPO against data through Week 6:
Below some players that are prime to break out in Week 6, according to the PPO data. (To see individual player PPO scores on a weekly or season-long basis, check out the Fantasy Stats section in our Tools lab.)
Running backs
You have to like this spot for Adrian Peterson, who had his 2017 breakout game last week. Week 7 will show whether or not it was a one-week blip or a sign of things to come. I’m betting on the latter. The Rams have given up the third-most PPO to enemy backs on the ground, and Peterson shined last week with 0.63 PPO, third-most among all running backs who had at least 2 rushing attempts.
The Jaguars have given up the most PPO to opposing running backs on the ground so far this year, and Marlon Mack’s 0.51 PPO is just barely behind Kareem Hunt (0.56) and Leonard Fournette (0.55). Mack needs more opportunity, but if he gets it this week, he should shine. His 24.1 percent snap rate last week was his highest rate since Week 1.
Speaking of the Jaguars, Fournette has been unstoppable this year, and he’s banged up this week. Don’t be afraid to start him: The Colts have given up the second-most PPO to opposing backs on the ground. Fournette has scored the second-most PPO among qualifying running backs. I like it when the boxes match.
The Patriots have ceded the eighth-most PPO to opposing backs on the ground, and the third-most through the air. Up next is Devonta Freeman, who ranks fourth among qualifying running backs with 0.42 PPO this year, and who can also run and catch.
Wide receivers
I spelled out the case for Michael Crabtree above, but in case you need a recap: He ranks first among qualifying wideouts in PPO, and the Chiefs rank second-to-last. Yes, please.
The Charges have been quietly friendly to opposing wideouts, giving up the third-most PPO to the position. Neither Demaryius Thomas nor Emmanuel Sanders rank particularly high in PPO, but this does set up as a nice spot for Thomas, with Sanders out.
The Cardinals have been weak against wideouts — especially those that can burn them deep — and this week they get Sammy Watkins, who has a terribly low floor but an impressive ceiling. Watkins has a change to make the most of his opportunities against Arizona, who have given up the fourth-most PPO to enemy wideouts on the year.
The Packers have given up the seventh-most PPO to opposing wideouts, and this week they draw Michael Thomas and the Saints. Thomas has strung together a few decent games, but he’s still searching for his breakout. Look for him to top 100 yards and find the end zone this week.
Tight ends
Always play your tight ends against the Browns, who have given up the most PPO to the position. Delanie Walker was targeted seven times in Marcus Mariota’s return on Monday night (his most since Week 1), but he’s still searching for his first score of the year. This is a blowup spot for Walker.
Always play your tight ends against the Giants, who have given up the third-most PPO to the position. New York draws Jimmy Graham this week, another usual-stud who hasn’t done much this year. Graham did collect his first touchdown of the season in Seattle’s last game, and he has seen at least eight targets in two of his past three outings. He’s a great play this week.
This has been the Zach Ertz breakout year, but it will continue in Week 7 against the Redskins, who have given up the seventh-most PPO to the position. Ertz’s 0.33 PPO trails only Cameron Brate (0.41) and Rob Gronkowski (0.38) among tight ends who have at least 25 catches.
Hunter Henry is actually wedged in between Gronkowski and Ertz in terms of PPO scored by tight ends this year, but he didn’t make the above qualification (just 24 catches this year). And this week Henry gets the Broncos, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy PPO to opposing tight ends. Henry has a touchdown or 80 yards in four of six games so far this year, including in the past three straight. He’s a good bet to continue that streak in Week 7.
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