Unlike quarterback, running back battles can result in split work, defined committees, or a hot-hand approach. So while not every competition has a clear winner, it can lead to more of a workload or an expansion of responsibilities, which is also valuable.
Looking at the running back landscape, there are crowded backfields and there are uncertain backfields. In some cases, they overlap but in others, the team is simply throwing bodies at the position hoping that a talent emerges. Some teams used free agency to bolster the position (see the Patriots), others focused on the draft (Packers), while some found a combination of the two as their potential solution (Vikings).
Below are a dissection of some of the situations where the risk is outweighed by the reward with a look at the competitors and an admittedly early prediction on who stands to benefit most. For the purposes of this article, I will exclude teams like the Atlanta Falcons and the Tennessee Titans that have two strong running back options.
Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, or Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
What makes this race so interesting is the incumbent (Ingram) finished as the eighth-highest-scoring running back in PPR leagues for 2016. That’s a massive opportunity if he (or one of the others) seize the job outright. Everyone knows the potency of the Saints’ offense and the improving offensive line has ranked top 13 in run blocking for the last three years.
Ingram seems to lose the trust of the coaches every season, although he did manage to last all 16 games in 2016 for the first time in five years. That said, he was sixth in both missed tackles forced on runs (43) and elusive rating while finishing seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.06). Meanwhile, new signee Peterson struggled in 2016, averaging under two yards per rush attempt, prior to his injury. It’s hard to tell if he has another season like 2015, where he led the league in rushing yards and touchdowns, or if this is the end. As for Kamara, the second-round draft pick, he was unfairly labeled as only a receiving back after finishing fifth in yards per route run in 2016. He also finished sixth in elusive rating after breaking 50 tackles on runs (26) and receptions (24).
Likely starter Week 1: Ingram. As much as Peterson has succeeded in the NFL and Kamara showed versatility in college, neither have the combination of Ingram’s experience and well-rounded skill set. I wouldn’t bet on Ingram exceeding his 2016 numbers, but he is likely going to lead the backfield in total touches.
Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, or Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
If not for an injury to Bernard, the Bengals could have had two running backs in the top 24 for PPR scoring for the third straight year. It has been Bernard in the passing game and change of pace running with Jeremy Hill working as a touchdown-heavy option and two-down thumper. Whether it was because Bernard was hurt or Hill’s effectiveness waned (or both), the team drafted explosive runner Mixon in round two.
Bernard has a clear role in this offense. He has been top 15 in yards per route run for each of the last four years. His ACL tear was just eight months ago, but early reports have him ahead of schedule and potentially the third-down option once again. Since Hill’s breakout in 2014, he has regressed in all measures. After ranking fifth in yards after contact per attempt that year, Hill hasn’t ranked higher than 26th since. Unless Hill recaptures his own form, he could be the odd man out. With Mixon in the fold, the Bengals gain a playmaker. He was fifth among qualified runners with a 57.3 percent breakaway rate while at Oklahoma in 2016 and second in yards per route run.
Likely starter Week 1: Mixon. I went with the rookie, but he is extremely talented and is competing with a player recovering from injury (Bernard) and a player the team seems noncommittal about (Hill). The Bengals were ranked 10th in run-blocking last year, but lost two strong starters, so the rushing upside could be limited.
Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, or James White, New England Patriots
Hey kids, guess who has the toughest backfield to decipher every year? That’s right, it’s Bill Belichick and the Patriots. They were a good run-blocking unit last year (tied for the fifth-highest grade) and second overall offensive grade via PFF. Considering LeGarrette Blount had 18 rushing touchdowns last year, the fruits of this rushing offense are unsurprisingly ripe.
So where to begin? Burkhead and Gillislee are the new guys, both coming over as free agents. The latter graded out as the 14th overall running back, fueled by his third-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.34) and eighth overall elusive rating score. Burkhead saw most his work in Weeks 16 and 17, leading to a 49.9 elusive rating, ahead of David Johnson, and broke 11 tackles on just 74 rushes. As for the holdovers, Lewis has struggled with injury and saw just 64 carries during the regular season before some success in the postseason, which ended with an injury. White appears primed as an elite receiving back, finishing third with 1.90 yards per route run.
Likely starter Week 1: Gillislee. He has the size (5-foot-11, 218 pounds) and physical running style to replace Blount as the primary running back. Gillislee has great ball security (no fumbles) and is the forward churning running back Bill Belichick prefers, giving him top 12 upside. Expect White to be the receiving back and capable of threatening 50-plus catches.
Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine, or Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
The underrated battle in the nation’s capital is not a political one, but rather one to decide who carries the ball behind PFF’s ninth-ranked run-block unit in 2016. Even with that, no runner ended up in the top 24 in total PPR fantasy points or fantasy points per game. This was largely a result of changes in the backfield throughout the year. It was the second straight year where no running back was a top-24 option as the team has struggled to find a year-long answer.
At times, Kelley looked capable of leading the backfield in Washington. His elusive rating was fourth in 2016 and had more missed tackles on 168 carries (35) than Todd Gurley had on 278 attempts (28). In Perine, the team gets an experienced runner who found success at Oklahoma. He slowed after a monster 2014 where he was second in missed tackles forced and third in runs of 15-plus yards. Thompson actually finished as the top PPR fantasy back on the team (27th) and was seventh in total snaps in route (309). His elusive rating was seventh among running backs with 50-plus carries and eighth in yards after contact per attempt (3.13).
Likely starter Week 1: Kelley. Clearly, Perine has the potential but Kelley is the reliable option on a team that can compete for the playoffs. Thompson will continue to be the receiving option with the occasional rush. This has the looks of two top-36 fantasy options rather than one back emerging to become a three-down player.
Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, or C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks
Unlike other teams on this list, the Seahawks have recently struggled as a run-block team, finishing 31st in PFF’s run-blocking grade in 2016. Before last year, the team ranked top three in rush attempts from 2012 to 2015. Granted, that was largely with Marshawn Lynch (including his injury-plagued last year), but the Seahawks have clearly wanted to be a run-first, defense-oriented team.
The new guy, Lacy, is the most proven and yet the most volatile of the group. He is one of only 11 players to manage 1,000-plus rushing yards in each of his first two seasons, but also barely has 1,000 combined in the last two seasons, struggling with weight issues and injuries. Meanwhile, Rawls in 2015 became the first undrafted rookie to manage a 200-yard rushing game. His 2015 was just as great (third in yards after contact per attempt, 10th in elusive rating) as his 2016 was horrible (42nd, 47th out of 53). Prosise barely had a rookie season — only 47 touches — but looked great in the pass game in limited time. His 2.54 yards per route run would have been second if he stayed healthy enough to qualify.
Likely starter Week 1: Lacy. Much like the situation with the Saints, I am betting on the player who is the most well-rounded. An ankle injury could set him back in training camp, but I see Prosise more likely to capture receiving work than Rawls taking the lion’s share as a rusher. The rushing attempts should go up as a team in 2017, but it is hard to imagine any of these runners ascending into the top 12.
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