Experience vs. potential. Ball security vs. gunslinger. There are a variety of quarterbacks with different skillsets, but when it’s July and a team still hasn’t committed to one guy over another, that’s when fantasy players panic.
Some quarterback situations are less than ideal, but they aren’t battles. For instance, Blake Bortles has a lot of pressure on him due to erratic play and is tied with Philip Rivers for the most interceptions (34) over the past two seasons, but he’s the Jaguars’ guy. Tyrod Taylor restructured his contract and took a $10 million dollar pay cut rather than risk being released, but he’s the Bills’ undisputed starter going into Week 1. Even Brian Hoyer isn’t in a battle situation in San Francisco with his former offensive coordinator now head coach, Kyle Shanahan. Hoyer has even gone so far as to host his teammates in Texas for a passing camp.
Other teams have some difficult decisions to make. Someone must win the battle, and here are the most precarious quarterback situations in the league.
Mike Glennon or Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Over the offseason, the Chicago Bears brought in Glennon to the tune of $45 million on a three-year contract. However, according to Sportrac.com, the contract is structured in such a way that it’s essentially a one-year deal since his dead cap hit plummets from $18.5 million to $4.5 million after 2017 and then only $1 million in year three. Understandably, the Bears wanted an out. Glennon’s most prolific year in the NFL was his rookie season back in 2013. He threw for 2,608 yards, 19 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. His 70.2 adjusted completion percentage ranked 28th in the league. Since that year, Glennon has less than 250 total passing attempts.
This was going to be the first time that Glennon was going to enter the season as the undisputed starter, but then Chicago traded several draft picks to move up one spot and select Trubisky at No. 2 overall. With only one year of college starting experience, Trubisky set school records with 3,767 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. PFF noted that his adjusted completion percentage when pressured was 66.7 percent, tied for No. 1 in last year’s draft class among quarterbacks with at least 80 attempts. This rookie has poise under pressure, and clearly the organization thought he was someone they needed to reach for.
Likely starter Week 1: Mike Glennon. Trubisky’s lack of experience will give the Chicago coaching staff pause. However, the blockbuster trade to get Trubisky in the first round adds extra pressure. According to the PFF projected box scores, the Bears are only expected to win three games. If that’s the case, Chicago will plug in Trubisky to see what he can do.
Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Last year, the Texans turned to Savage out of desperation after the team pulled Brock Osweiler in Week 15 due to his 14:16 touchdown to interception ratio. From Weeks 15 to 17, Savage threw no touchdowns or interceptions and never threw for over 260 yards in an outing (though he left the Week 17 game in the second quarter with an injury). His college career took him from Rutgers to Arizona and then to Pittsburgh. During his last college season, he threw for 2,958 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
The Texans traded up to the No. 12 overall pick to select Deshaun Watson. This standout from Clemson had an impressive 76.1 adjusted completions percentage. He also scored 26 rushing touchdowns and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. His biggest issue was turnovers, with 20 total last year (17 were interceptions). Although Savage has been in for most the first-team snaps, Watson did impress teammates and coaches at OTAs. He’s already
Likely starter Week 1: Savage is the favorite to start Week 1, but that could change very quickly. Although he must continue making strides, Deshaun Watson cost the Texans their 2018 first-round pick. They decided to make that move even though they already had traded away their second-round 2018 pick. If Watson shows a glimmer of the shine he possessed in college during the preseason, the Texans will likely start him. Especially since Savage isn’t exactly a proven commodity based on the numbers above.
Cody Kessler, Brock Osweiler, or DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
The Browns made some great offseason moves, most notably huge strides on the offensive line. But their quarterback situation is the murkiest in the league.
Kessler was surprisingly efficient last season when given a chance. His 78.2 adjusted completion percentage was fifth-best in the league among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks on the season. His 80.6 accuracy under pressure was the best in the league. Head coach Hue Jackson said before minicamp that this was Kessler’s job to lose, but he may have done just that. Jackson defended Kessler and said that his issues with batted balls was due to good play on the defensive side of the ball, but when there are two other contenders, you don’t want to be the one that needs excuses.
In early March the Browns acquired Brock Osweiler, a 2017 sixth-round pick and a 2018 second-round pick. Houston needed a different team to take on Osweiler’s guaranteed salary ($16 million) and the Browns needed quarterback depth. Osweiler was incredibly inefficient last season. He played in 15 games, but only put up 2,957 yards, 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His 40.3 PFF grade was 32nd in the league. Yet reports out of OTAs were favorable, with ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting that there’s talk about him entering training camp at the top of the depth chart.
And then there’s Kizer, rookie second-round pick from Notre Dame. Although PFF noted there are many question marks when it comes to Kizer’s accuracy and decision-making, he’s also incredibly mobile and had a passer rating of 154.7 when using play action. That was the best in the nation. Kizer reportedly has a good grasp on the offense and is cutting into Kesser’s first-team reps.
Likely starter Week 1: This battle will go down to the wire and each of these players will have to make the most of their time on the field during preseason. Considering his accuracy at the NFL level — albeit in a small sample size — a safe Kessler should have the edge. Considering six quarterbacks saw playing time under center for Cleveland in 2016, though, each of these Browns quarterbacks could see time.
Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos
Some reports say that Siemian performed better than Lynch at OTAs. And yet other reports indicate that Lynch has gained considerable ground on last year’s starter. This battle will be hard fought.
Many were surprised when Siemian won the job last season. Unfortunately, in some ways, the Broncos set him up to fail. Siemian attempted 40 or more passes in five of his 14 games last year. That is a lot of pass attempts for any first-year starting quarterback. Siemian’s 56.2 PFF grade landed him No. 30 last year.
But Lynch didn’t fare better. During three games with significant playing time, Lynch completed only 49 passes for 497 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. This is a small sample size, so perhaps his college numbers are a better indicator of future success. Lynch probably hopes so, because his adjusted completion percentage during his last year at the University of Memphis was 77.1, fourth-best among quarterbacks in the 2015 draft class with at least 300 snaps.
Likely starter Week 1: Lynch. Denver’s new head coach, Vance Joseph, stressed that decision-making was important to his decision, which should favor Siemian. But if this race has tightened up the way it’s been reported, it’s going to be very difficult keep a first-round pick on the bench.
Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg, or Bryce Petty, New York Jets
McCown was a third-round draft pick for the Arizona Cardinals in 2002. He’s 38 years old and has never played in more than 14 games in any season of his career. During his best season from a raw-number perspective, McCown played in 14 games and threw for 2,511 yards, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That was in 2004 as a Cardinal. Despite never scoring more than 13 touchdowns in a season, he’s thrown 10 or more interceptions four times. He is not the long-term solution for the Jets, to be sure. But it sounds like it’s more up in the air than many assumed it would be as to whether he’s even a short-term solution.
There’s been swell of support for Hackenberg as of late. Last year the Jets didn’t even get Hackenberg on the field. This year he’s creating buzz by working with QB coach Jeremy Bates on his mechanics. Not to throw water on the smallest shred of hope that anyone can find when evaluating the Jets, but PFF didn’t even have a draftable grade on Hackenberg when the Jets surprised many by taking him in the second round. Our own Sam Monson didn’t think Hackenberg should have come off the board… at all. You can read his entire argument, but overall he points to Hackenberg’s inaccuracy at every distance, his lack of decision-making skills, his performance while under pressure and his lack of upside. Overall, none of these things point in the direction of fantasy relevance.
And don’t forget about Petty from Baylor. Last year he connected on 75 passes of 809 yards with three touchdowns… and seven interceptions before his season ended with a non-throwing shoulder injury. Even though he’s back to practicing, the injury took out much needed time to work on his mechanics over the offseason, therefore he seems to be the odd one looking in.
Likely starter Week 1: They should start McCown. Start the season with a quarterback who has experience running an offense. But it bears repeating that McCown hasn’t every played in all 16 games of any season. Everyone on this list will likely get playing time.
Sam Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
Word is bond, honor it.
— Teddy Bridgewater (@teddyb_h2o) July 13, 2017
It may seem like a long shot, but this time last year it was Bridgewater who was a breakout candidate who’s 79.3 accuracy percentage led the league in 2015. Under pressure, his 72.8 accuracy percentage was second only to (ironically) Bradford. Unfortunately, Bridgewater suffered a gruesome left knee injury last August, but just this week he posted pictures of himself working out without a brace on his surgically repaired knee.
But here’s the deal: this year it’s Bradford who’s coming off a season where he was the league leader in accuracy percentage (80.9). He also completed 57.4 percent of his pass attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield, another stat in which he led. And then, you guessed it, he also led the league in accuracy under pressure at 77.3 percent.
Likely starter Week 1: Bradford will start the season as the starter, and that will give Bridgewater more time to get to his healthiest. If the Vikings struggle, they’ll pull the plug on Bradford to see if there is a future with Bridgewater. This is a contract year for Bradford, so he’ll have to prove it, or he’ll lose it.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.