2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: Darren Waller feasts against man coverage

• Darren Waller finds a new home with the New York Giants: The Las Vegas Raiders appeared ready to move on from Waller by the end of last season, but the Giants' investment in Waller shows they are optimistic about him.
• His recent injuries are a big concern: Waller has dealt with multiple injuries in the last two seasons. He will be 31 years old at the start of the season, which is relatively old for a tight end.
• He has a chance to lead the Giants in targets: The Giants have several intriguing wide receivers, but no one who is a clear WR1 or (arguably) WR2 on most teams.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

The fantasy football outlook series takes an in-depth look at a single player’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season. For help on draft strategy, rankings or for more details about other players, check out the rest of my summer content below. For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.

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Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Wednesday, July 19

Darren Waller‘s player outlook

Waller had two elite seasons in 2019 and 2020 and has found some fantasy success in the last two seasons when healthy.

• Waller has been great from a fantasy perspective over the last three seasons. He’s run 32.0 routes per game with 7.6 targets, 5.3 receptions and 62.5 yards, which all rank among the top four for tight ends.
• His one downfall was touchdowns in the Las Vegas Raiders offense, as he only scored in two of five games, which was the sixth-best rate. This resulted in the fourth-most PPR points per game at 13.7.
• His fantasy points per game have been on the decline, with 10.9 over the last two seasons and 9.4 specifically last season. His PFF receiving grade has similarly declined.
• Part of the problem has been injuries. He’s dealt with a pedal ankle sprain, knee strain and hamstring strain over the last two seasons. He’s missed 14 games over the last two seasons.
• He was off to a fine start in 2022 with 79 yards in his first game and 50 yards and a touchdown in his second. He missed two months of games, and in the last four games, he split time with Foster Moreau.
• In 2019, he was playing in at least 87% of snaps in all but one game but had played under 87% in each of his last 11 games.
• He has played particularly well against man coverages in his career, including a 90.8 PFF receiving grade against man last season.
• For a receiver, play against man coverage is more consistent than zone, so Waller should be able to stay elite against man while his play against zone could bounce back compared to recent seasons.

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