Fantasy Football Player Profile 2024: Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren

• Jaylen Warren dominates on the ground in most situations: The Steelers running back ranks in the 90th percentile or better in half of the metrics tracked in the player profile series.

• The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ offensive coordinator adds uncertainty: New OC Arthur Smith runs the ball at a very high rate. However, he also favors running plays that Warren has struggled with.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

The fantasy football player profile series gives the most in-depth view of a player using the best data points at PFF’s disposal. We will look at how well the player has performed, the player's competition for touches and how teammates and coaches will impact the player's performance.

Last updated: 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, July 30

Player Performance

Warren, who went undrafted in 2022, quickly secured the third-down job for the Steelers. Despite this, the team did not give him many opportunities in the passing game, as he recorded either one or zero receptions in half of his games.

He played a limited number of snaps but was the fifth-highest-graded running back in 2022, partly due to his ability to force missed tackles. Warren also excelled as a runner, breaking long gains despite averaging fewer than five carries per game.

In 2023, Warren's utilization increased significantly, recording more carries per game, more routes per game and a higher target rate. His rushing numbers improved with the larger sample size, and his receiving performance generally increased, as well.

However, he did lose a fumble as a receiver and dropped five passes compared to two in 2022, resulting in a lower EPA and grade.

He has excelled as a runner in most situations, except when facing eight or more players in the box or in zone run concepts.

Competition for Touches

Last season, Warren served as the primary third-down and two-minute drill back. He was the only running back in that role to consistently become a fantasy starter.

His main competition remains Najee Harris, as it has been throughout his career.

Warren played more on early downs last season than the previous year, and his playing time could continue to increase. Warren's performance has been significantly better than Harris' in almost every situation, though he has only a slight lead against eight-man boxes. Harris has outperformed Warren on zone plays but nothing else.

Warren could also face some competition from Cordarrelle Patterson, who played in Arthur Smith’s offenses with the Atlanta Falcons. The 33-year-old running back played 82 snaps in the backfield and 83 at wide receiver last season.

At his age, Patterson is unlikely to significantly cut into Warren's playing time. And given the Steelers' depth at wide receiver, Patterson might play that position permanently. It’s also worth noting that Patterson signed almost immediately after the NFL announced new kickoff rule changes, and he is arguably the greatest kick returner of all time. He’s also starting training camp on the NFI list (hamstring).

Impact of Teammates

The Steelers signed Arthur Smith to be their offensive coordinator. Smith loves running the ball and targeting running backs, which should mean significant fantasy value for the team's running backs. The downside is that he rarely had a clear lead running back in Atlanta — even when it might have been warranted — suggesting this could remain a two-man committee.

Smith's Falcons used zone run plays more frequently than any other team last season. His offenses have consistently been at or near the top in zone usage since his time with the Tennessee Titans. Ideally, Warren could take on the Bijan Robinson role from last year, while Harris takes the Tyler Allgeier role. However, Warren might not be as effective unless he improves his performance on zone runs.

The Steelers' offensive line remains largely the same as last year, with backup Nate Herbig replacing Mason Cole, who was released in February. Herbig has graded better as a run blocker in his limited playing time, which is a positive sign.

The Steelers also used their first two draft picks on offensive linemen —  tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier — both of whom have a chance to win starting jobs. Even if a rookie doesn't work out, the Steelers should still have a top-10 run-blocking unit. If one of the rookies does succeed, the Steelers could have a very imposing run game.

Bottom Line

Warren has a lot of talent and has earned more playing time as his career has progressed. With a new offensive coordinator, there are many possibilities for his role. However, his main challenge is his poor performance on zone runs, which are a favorite of Arthur Smith.

Footnotes

• • The statistics for the tables and charts were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance (on either a per-game or per-occasion basis) or on their ability to describe the player relative to others at the same position.

• • Opportunities for this purpose are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and routes run as a receiver.

• • Numbers are either by season or based on the last three years. For rookies, only college numbers are included. Only NFL numbers are included for non-rookies, even if they played in college in the last three years.

• • Because college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, most rookies will likely see a decline in their numbers compared to their previous numbers.

• • The colors for all tables in this article range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).

• • All percentiles or colors compare the given player to other players with a high sample of opportunities. Generally, it’s one-third of the possible opportunities given the sample. If the player in question doesn’t have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player could look good or bad on that small sample size, which might not be as predictive.

• • Information on running back utilization classifications and importance can be found here, wide receiver here and tight end here.