• Highly drafted wide receivers have a strong recent history: Malik Nabers is a safe bet to be at least a fantasy starter this season, if not more.
• The New York Giants‘ offense will evolve: The Giants no longer have Saquon Barkley or Darren Waller and have their best wide receiver of at least the past five years. Now the question is how the offense will adjust to the personnel changes.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
The fantasy football player profile series gives the most in-depth view of a player using the best data points at PFF’s disposal. We will look at how well the player has performed, what competition the player has for touches and how teammates and coaches will impact the player's performance.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 15
Player Performance
There would be a lot more talk about Malik Nabers if Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn’t in the same draft class. The Giants selected Nabers at No. 5 overall, making him one of the highest-drafted rookie wide receivers of the past decade.
Many of his LSU statistics were off the charts in 2023. None of the comparisons we make in the below charts or tables are adjusted for the opponent, so it’s worth noting the numbers are even more impressive since he faced mostly SEC competition.
Seven wide receivers were selected in the first half of the first round from 2021-2023. Six finished as top-32 fantasy wide receivers, except Jameson Williams, who came into the NFL with an ACL tear. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were the only ones picked in the top six, and they finished fifth and 13th, respectively.
If Nabers had been selected fifth overall to a generic team with a generic coach and quarterback, he would have an average draft position somewhere within the top 20 wide receivers.
Competition for Touches
Nabers shouldn’t have much competition for touches compared to most wide receivers. The Giants kept most of their wide receiver room the same compared to last year. Their top four wide receivers from 2023 are now one spot further down the depth chart after Nabers' arrival. Parris Campbell and Sterling Shepard were at the bottom of the depth chart last season and are no longer on the roster. Allen Robinson II and Isaiah McKenzie are likely fighting for the last roster spot.
Chances are Nabers will be an outside receiver, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt will share the other outside spot, and Wan’Dale Robinson will handle slot duties. Robinson is one of the team's three best receivers, but at 5-foot-8, it’s unlikely that he will play on the outside. That might be best for the team but not for Nabers’ fantasy value, as Nabers played better in the slot in college. Generally, wide receivers who are outside in two-receiver sets and in the slot in three-receiver sets score more PPR points than those who stay outside. It’s also possible we will see some groupings with Nabers in the slot and others out wide.
The Giants lost Saquon Barkley in free agency and Darren Waller to retirement, which means the team's wide receivers should see more targets in 2024. New running back Devin Singletary has never graded well as a receiver, and we’ve already seen tight end Daniel Bellinger receive a low target share as the starter.
Impact of Teammates
Mike Kafka remains the Giants' offensive coordinator, but his offense is bound to change. He spent five years with the Kansas City Chiefs, helped by Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, before moving to a Giants unit headlined by running back Saquon Barkley. He’s finally back to an offense where his top weapon is a receiver. We will have to see how he changes his offense in 2024.
Having Daniel Jones at quarterback isn’t ideal, but it’s not all bad. A lot of his dropbacks end up in either a scramble or a sack, which means fewer targets for the wide receivers. He’s also not a deep-ball passer. Luckily, Nabers ran a very diverse route tree in college, so he could be successful without many deep passes. The one bright spot is that Jones locks onto his first read more than most quarterbacks, and Nabers should be the first read often.
It’s at least possible Drew Lock will take over as the starter this season. That might not be better for the Giants' chances of winning, but it could help Nabers' fantasy value because a higher percentage of dropbacks would end up in a pass attempt, and Lock is more willing to throw deep.
Bottom Line
Nabers has the upside to be a future top-10 fantasy wide receiver, but the New York Giants‘ offense may hold him back in 2024. There is a chance Nabers is currently being undervalued because New York could be among the league leaders in targets, but the top 24 of fantasy wide receivers is too competitive right now for him to be among them.
Footnotes
- Statistics for the tables and charts were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on either a per-game or per-opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
- Opportunities for this purpose are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and receiving routes run.
- Numbers are either by season or based on the past three years. For rookies, only college numbers are included. For non-rookies, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the past three years.
- Because college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, most rookies will see a decline in their NFL numbers compared to their historical numbers.
- For all of the tables in this article, colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
- All percentiles or colors are comparing the given player to other players with a large sample of opportunities. Generally, it’s one-third of the possible opportunities given the sample. If the player in question doesn’t have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player could look very good or bad on that small sample size, which might not be as predictive.
- Information on running back utilization classifications and importance can be found here, wide receiver here and tight end here.
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