• Chris Olave is the real deal: Only a few wide receivers over the past decade have played better in their first two NFL seasons than Olave.
• A lot is working in his favor, except at quarterback: Olave should have less competition for touches and a coach that won’t restrict his routes, but he has Derek Carr at quarterback for a second straight season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
The fantasy football player profile series gives the most in-depth view of a player using the best data points at PFF’s disposal. We will look at how well the player has performed, what competition the player has for touches and how teammates and coaches will impact the player's performance.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 15
Player Performance
Olave has been an underrated wide receiver in his two years with the New Orleans Saints. His per-route production has been excellent. His 87.2 PFF receiving grade over his first two seasons ranks eighth among wide receivers over the past decade.
When breaking down Olave's performance by the situation, he is great at nearly everything. He’s been at his best when open against man in single coverage, but he’s also still better than most receivers in more difficult situations. His biggest issue is that the Saints quarterbacks haven’t thrown to him as much when he’s double-covered compared to other elite wide receivers.
His production by route isn’t perfect, but it’s good to see his three worst routes are ones that he rarely runs.
Olave recently celebrated his 24th birthday, so we can still expect improvement from the budding superstar. If you were to list the best wide receivers to start a new franchise with, a case could be made for Olave to be in the top 10.
Competition for Touches
The lack of competition for touches in New Orleans has worked for Olave in the past and should continue to do so. The Saints' backfield and tight end room are practically unchanged. The big difference at wide receiver is that they no longer have Michael Thomas. They added Bub Means in the fifth round of the draft and several veterans who have been borderline starters in Cedrick Wilson Jr., Stanley Morgan Jr. and Equanimeous St. Brown. Thomas was likely more of a threat to Olave’s targets than any of the new receivers will be.
Olave already had a high target share and first-read rate, but with Thomas gone and with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill being another year past their prime, Olave may see his target share increase by 2-3 percentage points.
Impact of Teammates
Possibly the biggest reason to be excited for Olave is the addition of Klint Kubiak. Former Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael rotated his wide receivers more than nearly every other team. Olave has never exceeded 90% of offensive snaps in a game, and his median game of 2023 was 76.5%. A lot of the plays he was off the field for were run plays, but the rotation was enough to keep him sidelined for 13% of the Saints' pass plays last season. He should record a 90%-plus route participation clip this year.
Kubiak uses sets with three or more receivers less often than most teams, which would make perfect sense for the Saints. given their wide receiver depth. Olave plays in both two- and three-receiver sets, so that shouldn’t majorly impact him.
The big reason Olave has an average draft position outside the top 10 is he has Derek Carr at quarterback. In 10 seasons, Carr has no playoff wins and no seasons as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but he is still better than a quarter of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He put together one of the best stretches of his career in the last six weeks of the 2023 season with an 87.9 PFF overall grade, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in that time. Olave would be a top-10 fantasy wide receiver with a better quarterback, but he could also be in a lot worse of a situation than he's in now.
Also worth noting is that the Saints have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, which will help the fantasy value of everyone in the offense.
Bottom Line
Olave should be considered one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He finished as the WR16 last season, and it’s fair to expect him to run more routes this year, leading to more production. It’s fair to expect his best season yet — but not too much better with Derek Carr at quarterback.
Footnotes
- Statistics for the tables and charts were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on either a per-game or per-opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
- Opportunities for this purpose are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and receiving routes run.
- Numbers are either by season or based on the past three years. For rookies, only college numbers are included. For non-rookies, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the past three years.
- Because college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, most rookies will see a decline in their NFL numbers compared to their historical numbers.
- For all of the tables in this article, colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
- All percentiles or colors are comparing the given player to other players with a large sample of opportunities. Generally, it’s one-third of the possible opportunities given the sample. If the player in question doesn’t have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player could look very good or bad on that small sample size, which might not be as predictive.
- Information on running back utilization classifications and importance can be found here, wide receiver here and tight end here.
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