• Nico Collins gives hope to all third-year receivers: Collins broke out in a major way during the 2023 season, becoming one of the five highest-graded wide receivers in the NFL.
• There is more competition for targets than you think: The Houston Texans not only added Stefon Diggs but made sure they could run the ball better and have the best backup wide receivers in the league.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The player profile series gives the most in-depth view of a player possible using the best data points at PFF’s disposal to look at how good the player has performed, what competition the player has for touches, and how other teammates and coaches will impact each player's performance.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, July 12
Player performance
Collins made an incredible leap from his second to third season in the NFL, which is not only a testament to the changes in the Houston Texans‘ coaching staff and upgrade at quarterback but also a testament to Collins.
He ran slightly fewer routes per game his target rate only improved by a few percentage points, but he nearly doubled his yards per route run. He’s been exceptional against double coverage as well as when he’s been open. It hasn’t made much of a difference if he’s facing man or zone coverage, or if he’s pressed or not. Based solely on his 2023 performance, he should be considered one of the top 10 wide receivers in the league. It’s fair to rank him a little lower than that considering he’s a one-year wonder at this point, but if he can just repeat his 2023 season, he should be considered among the best in the league.
Competition for touches
The big problem for Collins and his fantasy value is his competition for both snaps and targets. Collins' 28 routes per game last year is less than you would expect from someone of his caliber because the Texans rotated their wide receivers frequently.
The Texans were constantly down one of their top four wide receivers last season outside of Week 1 before Tank Dell broke out and one-quarter of one game in the middle of the season. Despite that, they still limited the snaps of their starters, as John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson both averaged 10 routes per game each. The only time Collins played over 80% of snaps was when there was a new injury to a receiver during a game, or there were multiple receivers out due to injury.
All six players at the top of the depth chart are back this year, and they added Stefon Diggs. An argument can be made for Collins, Diggs and Tank Dell as the best wide receiver trio in the NFL. Noah Brown and Robert Woods are both capable of being top-three wide receivers on at least some other teams. This is all great news for Texans fans, but it will make things stressful for fantasy managers who pick any of them.
Impact of teammates
The Texans added Bobby Slowik as their offensive coordinator last season. His offense looked different from the San Francisco 49ers where he worked as an assistant for several years, but part of that was based on the Texans' personnel. They used more plays with three wide receiver sets but only after run-blocking tight end Teagan Quitoriano suffered a season-ending injury. With Quitoriano back and the drafting of well-rounded tight end Cade Stover, we could see the Texans using more two-receiver sets than most fantasy managers would like.
The Texans also ran the ball more than expected despite having strengths in the passing game, weaknesses at running back and inconsistency on the offensive line. Ten different linemen played at least 200 snaps for the team last year. Three of the five projected starters for this season were held under 450 snaps. We could also see the Texans more invested in the run game this season.
We probably won’t see the Texans be as extremely run-heavy as the 49ers have been in the past in part because they have C.J. Stroud. While a lot of this article has focused on the negatives working against Collins, most of it can be forgiven if Stroud takes a step forward as a passer. He had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons of all time, but there is still plenty of room for him to improve to become one of the league’s elite quarterbacks.
Bottom line
Collins was very consistent when healthy last season but it will be hard for him to be a top-24 wide receiver in 60% of Houston's games again this year given how much the Texans invested in other players. His ADP is in the top 15 and is the riskiest of the group. He could end up third on his team in receiving production, but if Stroud improves and the team sticks to the passing game, Collins certainly has top-five potential.
Footnotes
- Statistics for the tables and charts were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on either per game or per opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
- Opportunities for this purpose are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and receiving routes run.
- Numbers are either by season or based on the last three years. For rookies, only college numbers are included. For non-rookies, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the last three years.
- Because college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, it can be expected that most rookies will see a decline in their numbers compared to their historic numbers.
- For all of the tables in this article, colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
- All percentiles or colors compare the given player to other players with a high sample of opportunities. Generally, it’s one-third of the possible opportunities given the sample. If the player in question doesn’t have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player could look good or bad on that small sample size which might not be as predictive.
- Information on running back utilization classifications and importance can be found here, wide receiver here and tight end here.
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