• Rome Odunze had excellent numbers in college: It’s easy to see why he was a top-10 draft pick, given his production at Washington the past two seasons.
• The Chicago Bears have too many options: Odunze joins D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, which is great for Bears fans and terrible for fantasy managers.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
The fantasy football player profile series gives the most in-depth view of a player using the best data points at PFF’s disposal. We will look at how well the player has performed, the player's competition for touches and how teammates and coaches will impact the player's performance.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 6
Player Performance
Odunze was an incredibly productive starter for Washington over the past two seasons, putting up some of the best cumulative and rate numbers among all college football wide receivers. His 1,639 receiving yards ranked first among Power Five wide receivers last season, helping him get selected as the ninth overall pick.
Odunze should make several big plays in his first year. PFF's draft guide calls him a super-sized Chris Olave, and he is the best contested-catch receiver in the class. Over the past two seasons, no wide receiver in college football tallied more deep targets or deep receiving yards.
He projects to be an outside wide receiver in the NFL. His 88.8 PFF receiving grade when lined up out wide was the highest among all Power Five receivers. Seven wide receivers were selected in the first half of the first round from 2021-2023, and six finished as top-32 fantasy wide receivers, except Jameson Williams, who came into the NFL with an ACL tear.
Given Odunze’s production and the performances of recent highly drafted wide receivers, he would ordinarily be a clear top-30 wide receiver in fantasy drafts.
Competition for Touches
The reason Odunze is WR41 by ADP instead of in the top 30 is because of his competition for touches. He should constantly be on the field in three-receiver sets, and the Bears' talented veteran receivers should take pressure off him, but there aren’t enough targets to go around. D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are two of the eight NFL wide receivers with at least 500 targets over the past four seasons, and both were already looking at a decline in targets before Odunze’s arrival.
Recently, the San Francisco 49ers (2023), Miami Dolphins (2022) and Philadelphia Eagles (2022) have shown that good teams can maintain two top-15 fantasy wide receivers, but it will be very difficult to maintain three consistent fantasy starters.
In the ideal world of Odunze fantasy managers, Odunze can take over as an outside wide receiver in place of Keenan Allen in two-receiver sets. Moore just received a major payday, so his playing time certainly won’t decline, but it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if Allen's does due to age. Allen hasn’t shown any signs of needing a decrease, but he also hasn’t played every game in a season since 2019. There will be at least some weeks where Odunze can be an every-down player, and there is a chance he could every week to help maintain Allen’s health.
Even if Odunze can win an every-down job, he will be the second option on the offense at best even if he starts immediately living up to his draft status.
Impact of Teammates
The Chicago Bears have a new offensive playcaller and quarterback. Shane Waldron spent the past three seasons as the Seattle Seahawks‘ offensive coordinator and passed more than expected, especially considering the Seahawks' reputation of being a running team. The focus was always on the wide receivers — D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The bad news is he ran the fewest plays in the NFL in two of his three seasons there.
Odunze gains Caleb Williams, who is an accurate passer. It could also help that he doesn’t throw to his first read as often as most quarterbacks. This is good news because Moore will likely lead the team in first-read looks, and if teams are focusing on Moore, more targets may head Odunze's way. We expect Williams to be a great player immediately because he’s the best quarterback prospect of recent years, but there is no guarantee that will be the case.
Bottom Line
Odunze is a very talented player who is limited by his situation. Luckily, there are some realistic scenarios where he can be a top-20 wide receiver this season, especially if either Moore or Allen suffers an injury.
Footnotes
- Statistics for the tables and charts were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on either a per-game or per-opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
- Opportunities for this purpose are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and receiving routes run.
- Numbers are either by season or based on the past three years. For rookies, only college numbers are included. For non-rookies, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the past three years.
- Because college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, most rookies will see a decline in their NFL numbers compared to their historical numbers.
- For all of the tables in this article, colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
- All percentiles or colors are comparing the given player to other players with a large sample of opportunities. Generally, it’s one-third of the possible opportunities given the sample. If the player in question doesn’t have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player could look very good or bad on that small sample size, which might not be as predictive.
- Information on running back utilization classifications and importance can be found here, wide receiver here and tight end here.
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