• Tyreek Hill is the likely third-best option: Last season, the Dolphins wide receiver produced some of the most impressive per-play numbers of the PFF era.
• It’s OK to go hero running back: For managers drafting early, there are several opportunities to find value at wide receiver, making it acceptable to wait on selecting a second running back.
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Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
The perfect fantasy football draft series combines current average draft positions from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for managers in 12-team PPR leagues who are picking third.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 31
Round 1, Pick 3: Draft a wide receiver
The strategy at this pick is simply to take the best wide receiver.
Star running back Christian McCaffrey is likely off the board, and it’s a little too early to select Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. With several top-tier wide receivers available, you can confidently pick one and slot him into your starting lineup. And, ideally, you won't have to worry about that position for the rest of the season.
Top Target: Tyreek Hill (Player Profile)
Hill just had one of the best wide receiver seasons in league history. His per-route statistics were exceptional, and his per-game stats were historically great. The only concern about his performance in 2024 is his age; at 30, he's past the prime for most wide receivers. His game relies on speed, and he will eventually slow down. While he hasn't shown any signs of decline yet, it's possible it could happen this year.
Possible Targets: Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua
Round 2, Pick 22: Draft a running back
In the past, this was the prime pick for a quarterback, but Josh Allen‘s and Jalen Hurts‘ ADPs have fallen to a point where running back or wide receiver can be the focus. For the most part, running backs provide the most value here, as all of the proven wide receivers or those with the most upside will be off the table.
Top Target: De'Von Achane (Player Profile)
Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has suggested the offense wants to get Achane more involved this season. His role was roughly similar to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ last season. Gibbs was also a rookie running back on a team with a clear lead rusher. He also is just a little bigger than Achane. Gibbs received 1.5 more carries per game and 0.6 more receptions. Those increases seem reasonable, although Achane should touch the ball more than Gibbs did last season.
Achane is the riskiest running back with a top-12 ADP. If he improves as a receiver, stays healthy and sees a small increase in touches, he has a chance to be a league-winning RB1. However, there is also a chance that he continues to miss time here and there with an injury, his opportunities don’t increase and his rate stats inevitably regress. His size, mixed with his rookie production, is so unique that it’s harder to predict him than most players.
Possible Targets: James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones
Round 3, Pick 27: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year, the other options are a top tight end or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but come with more risk.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his “tush push” touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, no one else is above 1,300. Considering that one of those four is a backup and the other two are at ages where their rushing production is declining, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. Hurts is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corps and offensive line, so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Round 4, Pick 46: Draft a wide receiver
The value at wide receiver is too good to pass up. Several options are the clear top wide receivers on the team, whereas the running backs at this point have a lot of question marks. In general, a “hero running back” strategy ends up being the best strategy based on where the value is at the position.
Top Target: Malik Nabers (Player Profile)
Seven wide receivers were selected in the first half of the first round of the NFL draft from 2021-2023. Six finished as top-32 fantasy wide receivers, except Jameson Williams, who came into the NFL with an ACL tear. Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were the only ones picked in the top six, and they finished fifth and 13th, respectively.
Nabers isn’t quite in the same situation as Chase or Waddle, but he should join the other highly drafted rookies who were clear fantasy starters in their first seasons. He played 30-of-33 snaps with the starters in the Giants’ second pre-season game, with a 33.3% target rate, further proving he will be the clear lead target in New York.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Tank Dell, George Pickens
Round 5, Pick 51: Draft a wide receiver
Rashee Rice is currently the best value in drafts, depending on where you are drafting. Underdog Best Ball drafts have him going in the fourth round, while NFL.com has him in the eighth round. Most other platforms are between the end of the fifth round and the start of the seventh. It’s unlikely that he will be suspended this season, and most people have been drafting him as if he were going to be. With the assumption he’s not going to be suspended, he is worth a late fourth-round pick.
To be on the safe side, Rice is the pick here, even though he was the perfect pick a round or two later a week ago.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 in 2023 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During that period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
The risk of him being suspended this season is relatively small, with a suspension in 2025 more likely. The Chiefs recently added JuJu Smith-Schuster, but that move seems more like an upgrade to their backups rather than a threat to Rice's role.
Possible Targets: Amari Cooper, Tank Dell, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins
Round 6, Pick 70: Draft a tight end
This is the time to add a tight end after missing out on the top three tiers of the position. While running back is a bigger need, it will be easier to stockpile running backs later in the draft in hopes of one working out than adding multiple tight ends later in the draft.
Top Target: Jake Ferguson (Player Profile)
Ferguson had a slow start to the 2023 season, with 15 or fewer yards in three of his first six games, but from Week 8 on after the Cowboys' bye week, he was a consistent producer. He was TE7 from that point, with 11.8 fantasy points per game. All of the stats shown in these tables and graphs are for the regular season only, but it’s worth noting he had by far the best game of his career in the wild-card round, as he caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
Ferguson was TE9 last season and currently has an ADP of TE9, but everything is pointing up for him. His talent, situation, age, overall play last season, competition for targets and consistency with the coach and quarterback are all positives. He is the clear-cut top option for anyone who missed out on a tight end in the first five rounds.
Possible Targets: Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Taysom Hill, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson
Round 7, Pick 75: Draft a wide receiver
While this team needs a second running back, it’s hard to pass up the value at wide receiver here. There is particularly a lot of value where this draft pick happens to be picking. Because of the constant wide receivers, the rest of this draft will go heavy at wide receiver.
Top Target: Chris Godwin
Godwin was a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in both 2021 and 2022, but his health was a concern in 2023, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept him as an outside receiver rather than moving him to his traditional slot role in three-receiver sets.
On top of being healthy and having his ideal role, Godwin gains Liam Coen as an offensive coordinator. Coen worked with Cooper Kupp as an assistant wide receivers coach in 2018 and 2019 before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2022, when Kupp led all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (22.4). Godwin has excellent potential in the middle rounds of the draft.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen, Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze
Round 8, Pick 94: Draft a running back
As mentioned above, this team is now in need of a lot of running backs — hopefully, some with the potential to be consistent fantasy starters. If none of them hit, then you’ll have to go based on matchups each week.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, with a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants for 2024 and should be the featured running back.
He played 29-of-33 snaps with the starters in the second preseason game, making it clear he will see more playing time than the vast majority of running backs picked ahead of him. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the NFL's worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It's also possible that he won't play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears, Jerome Ford
Round 9, Pick 99: Draft a running back
Top Target: Brian Robinson Jr. (Player Profile)
Robinson appears to be the primary running back in Washington, as he played 16 of 29 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He’s expected to handle most early-down work, while Austin Ekeler will likely take on passing-down duties. The Washington Commanders made a few offensive line changes that should help, and they are unlikely to be as pass-happy as last season.
Possible Targets: Chase Brown, Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Corum
Round 10, Pick 118: Draft a wide receiver
The next three rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, drafting whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very consistent. He’s finished between 77.0 and 83.0 in each of the past six seasons. While everyone is excited for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will ideally be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Possible Targets: Jakobi Meyers, Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed
Round 11, Pick 123: Draft a running back
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard (Player Profile)
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 campaign. He played at least 64% of his team's offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those outings, including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Carolina Panthers added Jonathon Brooks as the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he is coming off a torn ACL. He is starting the season on the non-football injury list, which will cost him at least the first four games. Hubbard will be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Jaleel McLaughlin, Zach Charbonnet, Jordan Mason, Trey Benson, Tyler Allgeier
Round 12, Pick 142: Draft a running back
Top Target: Jaleel McLaughlin
McLaughlin was the sixth-highest-graded running back last season (86.2). His yards per carry and avoided tackle rate were both top-10 figures among running backs. He also paced all running backs in targets per route, leading to a top-10 yards per route run figure (1.63). After Samaje Perine‘s departure, McLaughlin should take on a larger role in the passing game, making him a potential fantasy starter.
Possible Targets: Jordan Mason, Tyler Allgeier, Bucky Irving, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins
Round 13, Pick 147: Draft a tight end
After missing out on a top-four tight end, it's worth considering a backup option. Given his strong preseason and past fantasy performances, Taysom Hill is arguably the best choice. However, if someone else drafts Hill, it might be acceptable to skip a backup tight end altogether.
Top Target: Taysom Hill
Hill played 20 of 31 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He played four snaps at halfback, five snaps at fullback, eight snaps at tight end, two snaps from the slot and two snaps out wide. That 64.5% snap rate is something Hill has never achieved in a game outside of when he was a starting quarterback. If he keeps that rate up in the regular season, he would be a top-five fantasy tight end.
Possible Targets: T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Cade Otton, Colby Parkinson, Chigoziem Okonkwo
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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