• What to do when the best quarterbacks come off the board in the first half of Round 1: There’s no reason to panic and reach for a QB in Round 1. Instead, grab an elite wide receiver before circling back to QB later on.
• Betting on the upside can help win your league: There are several high-upside targets from this draft spot and plenty of safer picks to help balance them out.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to prepare for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 18 minutes
Superflex fantasy drafts are becoming more popular every year, but there is still uncertainty about how and when to draft certain positions. This series will focus on superflex ADP as we draft from the Pick 7 to Pick 9 range to find the best players available for the optimal build.
Know your scoring
• Before diving into the pick-by-pick strategy, it’s going to be very important to familiarize yourself with the overall league and scoring settings, especially when it comes to superflex settings.
• As highlighted in the tables below, full PPR scoring allows a much more balanced score for the skill position players than quarterbacks, although quarterbacks still hold an advantage at the top.
• As scoring moves away from full PPR, quarterbacks will dominate the leaderboards even more. As more advantages are given to the skill positions, expect a more even distribution among the league’s top scorers.
• As the league size increases, the quarterback position also becomes more valuable. There are only 32 starters at most on any given week, so it becomes all the more important to load up on the position early.
PPR Scoring top finishers by position since 2014
| TOP: | 3 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 | 150 |
| QB | 57% | 58% | 52% | 54% | 40% | 32% | 27% | 21% |
| RB | 27% | 26% | 25% | 18% | 21% | 24% | 26% | 27% |
| WR | 17% | 16% | 23% | 26% | 34% | 37% | 39% | 40% |
| TE | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 12% |
0.5 PPR Scoring top finishers by position since 2014
| TOP: | 3 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 | 150 |
| QB | 87% | 82% | 79% | 67% | 47% | 36% | 29% | 22% |
| RB | 13% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 24% | 27% | 27% | 29% |
| WR | 0% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 25% | 33% | 37% | 39% |
| TE | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 11% |
Non-PPR Scoring top finishers by position since 2014
| TOP: | 3 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 | 150 |
| QB | 93% | 92% | 92% | 78% | 53% | 39% | 31% | 24% |
| RB | 7% | 8% | 8% | 17% | 28% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| WR | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 18% | 27% | 33% | 37% |
| TE | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% |
Draft strategy context:
- League size: 12 teams
- Scoring settings are full PPR
ROUND 1, PICKS 7-9: IF ALL THE QUARTERBACKS ARE GONE, THEN IT’S TIME TO SWITCH IT UP
The top-tier quarterbacks could all likely be gone by this point. And if Lamar Jackson (who is currently going right at seventh overall according to ADP and the last of my Tier 1 quarterbacks) is off the board, then there’s more wiggle room to attack an elite non-QB option here with the intention of circling back for a Tier 2 QB with upside in the next round.
Top Target: WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 7.8
• Hill comes into this year as the consensus WR2 after back-to-back career seasons with Miami, finishing as the overall PPR WR2 in each season and doing so in three of the past four seasons.
• Hill managed to top his career numbers from his first year in Miami, posting a 94.0 receiving grade (first in the league), 1,799 receiving yards (first), 13 receiving touchdowns (tied for first) and 3.82 yards per route run (first).
• His 3.82 yards per route run last season is the second-best mark ever in the PFF era (since 2006). His 3.20 yards per route run in 2022 ranks tied for fourth-best.
• At 30 years old, Hill has shown no signs of slowing down. His elite big-play upside shines through on every play he touches the ball, giving him week-winning potential consistently.
Possible targets: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase
Both Jefferson and Chase could finish the season as the overall WR1, and if Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Hill are off the board, then they are well worth the shot in this range.
ROUND 2, PICKS 16-18: TIME TO TAKE A QUARTERBACK
There are likely to be several Tier 2 options remaining at this point, and it’s best not to wait too much longer to address this very important position. Each of these Tier 2 options has top-five upside, making them strong choices for our QB1 after likely passing on the position in Round 1.
Top Target: QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 15.5
• Richardson’s rookie season was cut very short in 2023, but his fantasy potential shined through in a big way, as expected.
• No player delivered a higher rate of fantasy points per dropback than Richardson (0.73) last season, and no quarterback delivered a higher percentage of their fantasy points as a runner (52.4%).
• It’s a small sample size to work off, but combined with his college tendencies and elite athleticism, Richardson has the potential to maintain a similar pace in 2024 should he remain healthy for the entire season.
• He will be considered one of the top rushing threats near the goal line for Indianapolis, having delivered four rushing touchdowns in four games last season. He is also a significant threat to scramble and take off, as well, and these are all strong indicators for fantasy production.
• Richardson has a good shot at moving into Tier 1 fantasy quarterback range at this point next season, making him worth the bet as our QB1 in this draft.
Possible targets: Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray
Both of these quarterbacks have finished as top-five fantasy options in their careers, and both will have a shot at doing so again. They also come with safer floors than Richardson, making them good options for fantasy managers who would rather go that route.
ROUND 3, PICKS 31-33: ANOTHER QUARTERBACK IS NEEDED
Whether for the purposes of upside or just drafting a safe and reliable weekly starter, those options start to thin out a fair bit here in most superflex drafts. This is a good time to lock in the position before going any further.
Top Target: QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 33.5
• The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft steps into an excellent opportunity to produce immediately thanks to high-end weapons in his receiving corps.
• Williams inherits two top-10 wide receivers in terms of receiving grade from last year, with D.J. Moore (89.5) and Keenan Allen (87.4) as his top options while also having 2024 ninth overall pick Rome Odunze and a top-10 tight end in receiving grade from last season Cole Kmet (77.7).
• Williams offers rushing upside of his own, having recorded a 6.2% career college scramble rate, which tends to carry over to the NFL.
• Most importantly, with the weapons Williams has in the passing game, the Bears and his fantasy managers will be relying on his high-end passing talent from college to carry over more than anything else so that his elite weapons can add to his production.
Possible targets: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert
Safer options with slightly less upside are also available here for fantasy managers who don’t want to rely on a rookie quarterback in their starting lineup every week. Tagovailoa and Herbert can potentially deliver top-12 fantasy production, just without as much top-five upside as some of the quarterbacks being drafted ahead of them.
ROUND 4, PICKS 40-42: A LOCKED-IN WEEKLY SKILL POSITION STARTER
After taking one of the top-tier wide receivers in the first round and with two quarterbacks occupying those crucial spots in our fantasy lineup, it’s time to start filling out the rest of the lineup. This is a range where there are going to be some reliable options that can be safely left in lineups with little concern on a weekly basis, and it’s up to us to find the best fit for our build.
Top Target: RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 41.0
• Henry has finished as a top-12 PPR running back in four of the past five seasons, including last year.
• He heads to a new team for the first time in his career, and it should be considered an ideal fit for him to deliver once again in 2024.
• Henry won’t need to be relied upon as heavily as he was in Tennessee, considering the offense runs (literally) through Lamar Jackson, and that respite should allow for greater overall efficiency.
• While Henry hasn't been inefficient recently, as he’s never averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry, for a back with over 2,100 carries in his career, it’s at least something to keep an eye on.
• Luckily for Henry, since Jackson became a full-time starter in 2019, the Ravens running backs as a whole average 4.8 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the league over that span.
• The Ravens also ranked third in running back carries near the goal line last season (39), which led to 12 of Gus Edward’s 13 rushing touchdowns on the year. Henry should easily provide similar success and usage in those situations, making him a safe bet for our RB1.
Possible targets: Mike Evans, Trey McBride
Pairing Evans with our previous WR1 or adding a top tight end option is also a fine choice for fantasy managers who may want to fade the running back position early on.
ROUND 5, PICKS 55-57: STRENGTHENING THE WR CORPS
There are several strong options here to either add as your WR2 or WR3, depending on how that last round went. Loading up on high-floor options here will make for a strong weekly lineup.
Top Target: WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 54.4
• Samuel is currently taking a bit of a back seat to Brandon Aiyuk in ADP, which would be the first time in his career that this has happened. And while Aiyuk has earned that spot, Samuel at least becomes a better value for the first time.
• The 49ers offense offers plenty of firepower between Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel, but trade rumors have mostly surrounded Aiyuk this offseason, which could allow for Samuel to be an even greater value should that come to fruition.
• Samuel actually outperformed Aiyuk in PPR points per game last season thanks to his usage in the run game, where he has a floor of 40 carries per season.
• Aiyuk undoubtedly had a great season in 2023, but it shouldn’t take away from the potential that Samuel has, considering his usage in the 49ers offense, making him a prime candidate for a locked-in starting spot in our lineup.
Possible targets: Malik Nabers, D.K. Metcalf
Both Nabers and Metcalf should be considered the clear top target earners on their respective offenses, even if those offenses aren’t likely to be as good as San Francisco. For fantasy managers who don’t want to deal with the target competition, then these are the next best picks in this range.
ROUND 6, PICKS 64-66: TAKING ANOTHER CHANCE ON KYLE PITTS (or a running back)
Ideally, Pitts is still here in this range to serve as our TE1, as he’s currently being drafted as the TE6 overall and has a strong shot to bounce back to the player he was in his rookie season, just with more touchdowns.
Top Target: TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 65.1
• Pitts has been plagued by poor quarterback play in his NFL career, ranking among the bottom-fifth percentile in catchable target rate in each of the past two seasons.
• Luckily for Pitts, Kirk Cousins steps in as his new starting quarterback and ranks sixth among all quarterbacks over the past two years combined in adjusted completion rate (77.5%).
• This alone will provide a significant boost to Pitts’ fantasy value. We’re already aware of his overall talent and potential — it’s just been a waiting game for that to be fully unlocked in the NFL.
• With Raheem Morris also taking over as the new head coach and removing any potential rotation shenanigans that also limited Pitts’ potential under Arthur Smith, there are no excuses left for this to be the season for a Pitts breakout.
Possible targets: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon
A lot of fantasy managers have been burned by believing in Pitts in the past, and as much as circumstances are different this year, it’s understandable that they may not want to take that swing again. Instead, these safer running back options in this range are fine picks for those opposed to the risk of Pitts.
ROUND 7, PICKS 79-81: DRAFTING A STARTABLE RUNNING BACK
The running back options are thinning out quickly, but several options can be considered to pair nicely with our previously-drafted RB1. Even for those that have faded the position entirely, this range offers starting options to begin your run at the position.
Top Target: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 81.6
• Stevenson recently signed a healthy four-year extension in New England, becoming one of the eight highest-paid players at the position, which indicates a lot of motivation to get him the ball and contribute to this offense.
• Stevenson is just one year removed from an overall PPR RB8 season in 2022, and a combination of missing time in 2023 and sharing touches led to a down year, he’s now primed for a nice return in 2024.
• Stevenson mostly shared time with Ezekiel Elliott in 2023, cutting down on his overall weekly potential, but with Elliott back in Dallas and only Antonio Gibson — a career receiving down back — his main competition, expect Stevenson to get back to handling the bulk of the carries this year.
• This goes for goal-line opportunities, as well, after Stevenson also split those carries down the middle with Elliott before his injury, where he should be the clear favorite to punch the ball in once again in 2024.
Possible targets: James Conner, David Montgomery
• Both Conner and Montgomery also have strong touchdown potential this coming season and are decent bets to stay heavily involved coming out of the backfield on a weekly basis.
ROUND 8, PICKS 88-90: FLEX SPOT CONTENDERS
With every other starting spot likely filled out, it’s time to pick out a few favorite flex options in this range, with plenty of options available.
Top Target: WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 87.5
• Reed really impressed as a rookie last season, earning 90 targets and ranking fourth among rookie wide receivers in yards per route run (2.05).
• The Packers relied heavily on Reed with Christian Watson often injured, and should Watson continue to deal with injuries in 2024, Reed is the favorite to emerge as the top target once again.
• If Green Bay has its full complement of receiving options, then targets become more difficult for Reed to earn. But after a strong showing as a rookie developing chemistry with Jordan Love and considering the health concerns of Watson, specifically, Reed has a good shot at delivering another strong year.
• Reed also finished among the top 75th percentile in personnel-adjusted yards per route run, which typically points to an increase in fantasy points per game heading into Year 2, after he already delivered 13.3 PPR points per game in 2023.
Possible targets: Chris Godwin, Najee Harris
Depending on which position you might like more for your first flex option, both Godwin and Harris should come through with solid seasons, as well.
ROUND 9, PICKS 103-105: ANOTHER SWING FOR UPSIDE
With a good mix of safer picks and upside picks already made through the first half of this draft, we can maintain that same mentality to balance our roster as we reach the middle rounds.
Top Target: RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 103.8
• Brooks may not emerge right away as a rookie, it should only be a matter of time before he’s the lead back in the Panthers backfield.
• Brooks is coming off a torn ACL from November 2023 and only has one year of starting experience, but that one year was impressive enough to make him the first running back drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft.
• Brooks delivered top-10 marks in the FBS (min 150 rush attempts) with a 91.9 rushing grade, 3.91 yards after contact per attempt, a 140.3 elusive rating, 1.50 yards per route run and a 76.0 receiving grade.
• Expect Brooks to start the season behind Chuba Hubbard, only to work his way into a larger role for the second half of the year where fantasy managers that took him here can potentially be grabbing an RB1 workload for the most important stretch of the fantasy season.
Possible targets: T.J. Hockenson, Will Levis
Hockenson is also coming off a late-season ACL tear, while Levis could be in for a breakout season. Both players are high-upside picks if all falls in their favor, though they come with their own share of risk.
ROUND 10, PICKS 112-114: BALANCING SOME RISKIER PICKS WITH SAFETY
After taking some upside swings earlier on, it will be important to continue to ensure we have insurance for those picks not working out. This round is a good spot to prioritize safety over everything else.
Top Target: RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 113.5
• Moss steps into a potentially illustrious workload for the Bengals’ high-powered offense after the departure of Joe Mixon this offseason.
• Moss is the favorite to handle the bulk of the carries in Cincinnati, which includes near the goal line, where Mixon handled an NFL-leading 31 carries in those situations last season.
• Moss has limited experience as a full-time starter, which is part of the lower cost here outside of the top-100 picks, but after the Bengals chose him in a loaded free agent running back class and didn’t draft competition, this will be his year to prove he’s capable of that workload.
• Moss should be in line for 12-14 carries per game, including the bulk of the goal-line work and some pass-down opportunities, making him a great bet for a breakout season.
Possible targets: Dallas Goedert, Derek Carr
In contrast to the previous round, these three players represent the safer versions of the Round 9 picks, which helps supplement some of the risk in our lineups while we wait for confirmation on those previous picks to become fantasy starters.
ROUND 11, PICKS 127-129: ADDING IN QB3
There aren’t many viable quarterback options left who can fill in on bye weeks and in case of injury, so this is one of the last ranges to add that piece to the roster.
Top Target: QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 129.3
• A second rookie quarterback — for those who did go the Caleb Williams route in Round 3 — certainly comes with risk, but by doing so, fantasy managers at least have a chance of the player surprising us and outperforming their current stock. This isn’t necessarily the case for anyone else remaining in this range.
• Nix comes out of college having found success in his final two seasons with Oregon, where he turned into a low-ADoT yet efficient passer, which isn’t all that exciting for fantasy but isn’t a death knell, either.
• Nix performed especially well in 2023 compared to this year’s rookie quarterback class in plenty of key and stable metrics.
• Nix earned the best Wins Above Average (WAA) mark for the class (1.43), the best PFF passing grade (92.7), the best negative play rate (8.4%) and the best sack rate (1.2%).
• He will have to win the starting spot, but his competition is far from intimidating at the moment between Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham, so as the 12th overall pick, he should be the true favorite.
• If Nix and his receivers can be average to above average in 2024, then he should certainly outperform his current ADP of QB31.
Possible targets: Daniel Jones, Pat Freiermuth
Jones is the only other quarterback option in this range, but he may not be healthy enough to start the season. Until it’s clear how much time he’ll miss, though, he may be a fine QB3 to wait on the bench until bye weeks kick in, which for this build might not be needed until Week 7.
ROUND 12, PICKS 136-138: MORE POTENTIAL TO ROUND OUT THE ROSTER
Several decent WR2 and RB2 options are still on the board in this range, and now is a great time to start targeting those types of players while they’re still available to ensure some volume and handcuff potential.
Top Target: WR Mike Williams, New York Jets
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 138.7
• Injuries have long been a concern for Williams, but when he’s on the field, there’s also an encouraging history of production to justify him being our WR4.
• Williams only appeared in three games last season, but that production was evident as he delivered a very strong 16.7 PPR points per game and 2.33 yards per route run.
• Outside of his rookie season, Williams has never delivered fewer than double-digit fantasy points per game, and if fantasy managers can get past the injury concerns, then he’s as good a bet as any in this range to deliver once again.
• With Aaron Rodgers ready to return for (hopefully) a full season, the stability at quarterback should only help Williams’ chances of outperforming his current WR4-5 stock.
Possible targets: Chase Brown, Jakobi Meyers
For Zack Moss drafters who want insurance, Brown also makes sense in this range. And Meyers provides a decent potential for volume as a receiver, similar to Williams, but on a lower-powered offense.
ROUND 13, PICKS 151-153: ONE MORE BIG SWING ON UPSIDE
Targeting big-play receivers is certainly an option here, but with just one tight end on the roster at this moment, the Taysom Hill usage and production often become too much to ignore in this range.
Top Target: TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Sleeper Redraft SF ADP: 157.7
• Hill was targeted as a receiver more than he ever has been in his NFL career last season, with 39 total targets, leading to a career-high 33 receptions and 291 receiving yards.
• That alone isn’t a lot to be excited about for a fantasy tight end but when adding in that he also handled 78 carries for 401 yards and four rushing touchdowns, and knowing that his floor has been 54 carries these past four seasons, that certainly helps.
• If that isn’t enough, he also has some passing potential, though that has gone down quite a bit in recent years, and since Derek Carr joined the team.
• Either way, Hill’s utilization in the Saints’ offense across multiple situations always makes him an intriguing case for fantasy and led to his second-straight TE16 PPR finish.
Possible targets: Rashid Shaheed, Gabe Davis
Shaheed and Davis are two of the best boom/bust receivers in this range, thanks to their big-play upside and deep-threat roles in their respective offenses.
ROUND 14-PLUS: FILL DEPTH
At this point in drafts, consider it a free-for-all and don’t be afraid to grab your favorite sleepers whenever you see fit. There are several rookie sleepers found here, with a few more sleepers here and plenty yet to come on PFF.
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