• A top-five wide receiver is guaranteed: The top six picks in most drafts should be Christian McCaffrey and the top-five wide receivers. Ja’Marr Chase is the ideal option from the fifth pick.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again this year and can be drafted a round later.
• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy draft rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!
Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking fifth.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Saturday, August 31
Round 1, Pick 5: Draft a wide receiver
The only options here are a running back and wide receiver. In the first half of the first round, I lean wide receiver. The wide receivers are generally low-risk. At running back, the options are Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson, where there is much more risk. Aaron Rodgers might not target Hall much in the passing game while the Atlanta Falcons use a lot of Tyler Allgeier. The risks are very different.
Top Target: Ja'Marr Chase (Player Profile)
Chase was WR5 as a rookie but has fallen just outside the top-10 the last two seasons because he missed time due to injury in 2022 while Joe Burrow missed time in 2023. He’s ranked among the top six in fantasy points per game each season when only including games where Burrow is healthy. Chase should benefit this season from Tyler Boyd leaving the team, allowing Chase to line up in the slot more often. All of the other wide receivers with a top-five ADP have lined up in the slot significantly more than Chase these last three seasons, and it’s time for Chase to catch up.
Possible Targets: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson
Round 2, Pick 20: Draft a wide receiver
The options at this point of the draft are a high-upside young wide receiver like Chris Olave or Drake London, or a running back like Travis Etienne Jr. or Isiah Pacheco. Both running backs have their limitations while both wide receivers are players on the rise who could end up at the top-10 at their position by the end of the year. Anyone picking in the first half of the draft can also generally find pretty good value at running back in Round 4, making wide receiver the pick here.
Top Target: Chris Olave (Player Profile)
Olave has been an underrated wide receiver in his two years with the New Orleans Saints. His per-route production has been excellent. His 87.2 PFF receiving grade over his first two seasons ranks eighth among wide receivers over the past decade. Olave recently celebrated his 24th birthday, so we can still expect improvement from the budding superstar. He finished as the WR16 last season, and it’s fair to expect him to run more routes this year, leading to more production.
Possible Targets: Drake London, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk
Round 3, Pick 29: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year the other options are a top tight end, or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but more of a gamble.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his “tush push” touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the past three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering that one of those four is a backup, and the other two are at an age where we have stopped seeing as much rushing production, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. Hurts is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corps and offensive line, so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Round 4, Pick 44: Draft a running back
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. This running back tier is valuable if everything goes according to plan but a lot can go wrong. All six backs available at this point have averaged at least 14.5 PPR points per game over a significant stretch during the last two seasons, but most of the teams these running backs played for have invested a significant draft pick on another running back. Enough has been invested in these six that they are unlikely to completely disappear even if they lose playing time.
Top Target: Joe Mixon (Player Profile)
Mixon has been a consistent top-12 fantasy running back in both total ranking and points per game. Although he enters a new environment in 2024, he will play in a high-scoring offense as the Houston Texans‘ clear lead running back. While he’s never been the most explosive runner, it’s fair to think he will finish in the top 12 yet again. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently said Mixon is “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” The offenses Slowik has been part of generally run the ball more than average, which should continue to be true with Mixon.
Possible Targets: Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Montgomery
Round 5, Pick 53: Draft a wide receiver
Rashee Rice is currently the best value in drafts, depending on where you are drafting. Underdog Best Ball drafts have him going in the fourth round while NFL.com has him in the eighth. Most other places are between the end of the fifth round and the start of the seventh. It’s unlikely that he will be suspended this season, as most people had been drafting him as if he was going to be suspended. With the assumption he’s not suspended, he would be worth a late fourth-round pick.
To be on the safe side, Rice is the pick here, even though a week ago, he was the perfect pick a round or two later.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
The risk of him being suspended this season is relatively small, as a suspension in 2025 is more likely. The team recently added JuJu Smith-Schuster, but this move seems more like an upgrade to their backups rather than a threat to Rice's role.
Possible Targets: Tank Dell, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin
Round 6, Pick 68: Draft a running back
This is the time to pick up a second running back. Ideally, someone like Rhamondre Stevenson is still available, as he should be able to stay in fantasy starting lineups more often than not. Anyone after him is in some kind of committee or has other concerns.
Top Target: Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson didn’t quite live up to expectations last season with 12.1 fantasy points per game, but a lot of that had to do with the Patriots offense more so than Stevenson. The Patriots ran 98 plays in the red zone — 22 fewer than the next-worst team. The quarterback situation should be a lot better this season, as well as the wide receivers. Ideally, the young offensive linemen can also improve, leading to more efficiency. At the very least, the Patriots still believe in Stevenson after recently signing a four-year, $36 million extension.
Possible Targets: Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams
Round 7, Pick 77: Draft a tight end
This is the time to add to the position after missing out on the top three tight end tiers. While running back is a bigger need, it will be easier to stockpile running backs later in the draft in hopes of one working out than adding multiple tight ends later in the draft.
Top Target: Jake Ferguson (Player Profile)
Ferguson had a slow start to the season with 15 or fewer yards in three of his first six games, but from Week 8 on after the Cowboys' bye week, he was a consistent producer. He was TE7 from that point on with 11.8 fantasy points per game. All of the stats shown in these tables and graphs are for the regular season only, but it’s worth noting he had by far the best game of his career in the wild card round, as he caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
Ferguson was TE9 last season and currently has an ADP of TE9, but everything is pointing up for him. His talent, situation, age, his play, ignoring the first few weeks of last season when he first became a starter and including the playoffs, his competition for targets, and consistency with the coach and quarterback are all working for Ferguson. He is the clear-cut top option for anyone who missed out on a tight end in the first five rounds.
Possible Targets: Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Taysom Hill, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson
Round 8, Pick 92: Draft a wide receiver
In the eighth round, the best value is largely at wide receiver. With a balanced lineup already in place, you can now focus on selecting the best players available. While many running backs in this range are in committees and carry some risk, there are plenty of veteran wide receivers in new situations and younger wide receivers who offer good value.
Top Target: Hollywood Brown
Brown was a top-21 fantasy wide receiver in PPR points per game in 2021 and 2022, but his 2023 role changed after the Arizona Cardinals moved on from DeAndre Hopkins. That and the quarterback situation resulted in a lack of production in 2023, but he has an opportunity for a huge season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Brown is consistently near the top of our separation metrics, which could make him a perfect pairing for Patrick Mahomes. Xavier Worthy’s playing time in the preseason, along with Brown’s injury, has pushed Brown’s ADP by a few rounds, making him a value at his current price.
Possible Targets: Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Tyler Lockett
Round 9, Pick 101: Draft a running back
There have generally been a few running backs available here who are either the lead running back or in a clear two-man competition with a lot of potential. After that, the running back quality drops off significantly. While this team doesn’t necessarily need another running back, it’s fine to pick one here and lean more on wide receivers later.
Top Target: Chase Brown
Brown is competing with Zack Moss for Cincinnati's starting running back job. Throughout training camp, he’s received plenty of first-team looks and has shined throughout. During the first preseason game, he received opportunities on third-and-long — a situation he wasn’t involved with last season — so he has an opportunity to be much more involved in the passing game. He’s a gamble but a solid one to make at this point in the draft.
Possible Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Corum
Round 10, Pick 116: Draft a running back
The next three rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Brian Robinson Jr. (Player Profile)
Robinson appears to be the primary running back in Washington, as he played 16 of 29 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He’s expected to handle most early-down work, while Austin Ekeler will likely take on passing-down duties. The Washington Commanders made a few offensive line changes that should help, and they are unlikely to be as pass-happy as last season.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Corum, Zach Charbonnet, Jordan Mason
Round 11, Pick 125: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Jerry Jeudy
Round 12, Pick 140: Draft a running back
Top Target: Jaleel McLaughlin
McLaughlin was the sixth-highest-graded running back last season with an 86.2 offensive grade. His yards per carry and avoided tackle rate were both top 10 among running backs. He also led all running backs in targets per route, leading to a top-10 yards per route run figure (1.63). After Samaje Perine‘s departure, McLaughlin should take on a larger role in the passing game, making him a potential fantasy starter.
Possible Targets: Jordan Mason, Tyler Allgeier, Bucky Irving, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins
Round 13, Pick 149: Draft a tight end
After missing out on a top-four tight end, it's worth considering a backup option. Given his strong preseason and past fantasy performances, Hill is arguably the best choice. However, if someone else drafts Hill, it might be acceptable to skip a backup tight end altogether.
Top Target: Taysom Hill
Hill played 20 of 31 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He played four snaps at halfback, five snaps at fullback, eight snaps at tight end, two snaps from the slot and two snaps out wide. That 64.5% snap rate is something Hill has never achieved in a game outside of when he was a starting quarterback. If he keeps that rate up in the regular season, Hill would be a top-five fantasy tight end.
Possible Targets: Noah Fant, Cade Otton, Colby Parkinson, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Isaiah Likely
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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