• Christian McCaffrey is the clear pick at 1.01: McCaffrey scored over 100 more fantasy points than any other running back last season, and his situation has remained very similar to last season.
• It’s OK to go hero running back: For managers drafting early, there are several opportunities to find value at wide receiver, making it acceptable to wait on selecting a second running back.
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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
The perfect fantasy football draft series combines current average draft positions from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for managers in 12-team PPR leagues who are picking first.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 31
Round 1, Pick 1: Draft a running back
The clear top pick is Christian McCaffrey. There is no need to overthink it this year.
Top Target: Christian McCaffrey (Player Profile)
McCaffrey should be the 1.01 because he is far ahead of his competition. He has the right combination of volume and efficiency in both the run and pass games, as well as continuity with everyone on the 49ers' offense.
As is the case for any player, there is risk, but given how far apart McCaffrey is from all other running backs, even worse production could still lead to an RB1 season. He was relied on in the run game more than in the past couple of seasons, and he matched the increased volume with increased efficiency. He was among the top running backs in the run game in every volume and efficiency metric. On perfectly blocked plays, he has averaged an absurd 9.0 yards per carry over the past three seasons.
Possible Targets: Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry
Round 2, Pick 24: Draft a quarterback
Last season, the perfect pick in the second round was often a quarterback. Patrick Mahomes‘ ADP was a bit high, so either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was typically the best pick. They also happened to be the quarterbacks most frequently on ESPN championship game teams last season. While Hurts lost center Jason Kelce and Allen lost wide receiver Stefon Diggs, they are both still worthy of second-round picks.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the past four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is an elite passer and runner and runs a lot. There is an obvious risk after the Bills traded away wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason, but Buffalo will now need to depend more heavily on Allen, allowing his fantasy production to remain high.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow
Round 3, Pick 25: Draft a wide receiver
While this pick was tight end a week ago, the strategy has shifted to wide receiver. The value in later-round tight ends has improved, and there should be several wide receivers picked early in the second round. You can take your pick from the group.
Top Target: Mike Evans (Player Profile)
Evans has been a model of consistency throughout his 10-year NFL career, with at least 67 receptions for at least 1,000 receiving yards in each season. His 94 career receiving touchdowns rank 13th all-time, and he should rank within the top 10 by the end of the 2024 season. Potential deep touchdown regression, his age and Liam Coen’s offense are all risks, but his ADP has only fallen to WR13 because the floor remains high.
Possible Targets: Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith, D.K. Metcalf
Round 4, Pick 48: Draft a wide receiver
Rashee Rice is currently the best value in drafts, depending on where you are drafting. Underdog Best Ball drafts have him going in the fourth round, while NFL.com has him in the eighth round. Most other platforms are between the end of the fifth round and the start of the seventh. It’s unlikely that he will be suspended this season, and most people have been drafting him as if he were going to be. With the assumption he’s not going to be suspended, he is worth a late fourth-round pick.
To be on the safe side, Rice is the pick here, even though he was the perfect pick a round or two later a week ago.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 in 2023 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During that period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
The risk of him being suspended this season is relatively small, with a suspension in 2025 more likely. The Chiefs recently added JuJu Smith-Schuster, but that move seems more like an upgrade to their backups rather than a threat to Rice's role.
Possible Targets: Amari Cooper, Tank Dell, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins
Round 5, Pick 49: Draft a wide receiver
The value at this point of the draft is at wide receiver. All of the players who are clear lead running backs on their team with every-down potential are off the board, making any running back picked here a reach unless someone like Joe Mixon or Kenneth Walker falls. It is also a little early to pick one of the third-tier tight ends, considering the available talent at wide receiver. Because of that, the previous two picks and this pick should be at wide receiver to make it a strength of this team.
Top Target: Amari Cooper (Player Profile)
Cooper is in the 80th percentile or better in every situation he’s been put in over the past three seasons. It’s possible Cooper is a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL and has just never been given the right combination of target share and quarterback. He is very likely to be a fantasy starter all season if he stays healthy, but he is unlikely to be a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy points per game.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins
Round 6, Pick 72: Draft a tight end
This is the time to add a tight end after missing out on the top three tiers of the position. While running back is a bigger need, it will be easier to stockpile running backs later in the draft in hopes of one working out than adding multiple tight ends later in the draft.
Top Target: Jake Ferguson (Player Profile)
Ferguson had a slow start to the 2023 season, with 15 or fewer yards in three of his first six games, but from Week 8 on after the Cowboys' bye week, he was a consistent producer. He was TE7 from that point, with 11.8 fantasy points per game. All of the stats shown in these tables and graphs are for the regular season only, but it’s worth noting he had by far the best game of his career in the wild-card round, as he caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
Ferguson was TE9 last season and currently has an ADP of TE9, but everything is pointing up for him. His talent, situation, age, overall play last season, competition for targets and consistency with the coach and quarterback are all positives. He is the clear-cut top option for anyone who missed out on a tight end in the first five rounds.
Possible Targets: Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Taysom Hill, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson
Round 7, Pick 73: Draft a wide receiver
While this team needs a second running back, it’s hard to pass up the value at wide receiver here. There is particularly a lot of value where this draft pick happens to be picking. Because of the constant wide receivers, the rest of this draft will go heavy at wide receiver.
Top Target: Chris Godwin
Godwin was a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in both 2021 and 2022, but his health was a concern in 2023, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept him as an outside receiver rather than moving him to his traditional slot role in three-receiver sets.
On top of being healthy and having his ideal role, Godwin gains Liam Coen as an offensive coordinator. Coen worked with Cooper Kupp as an assistant wide receivers coach in 2018 and 2019 before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2022, when Kupp led all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (22.4). Godwin has excellent potential in the middle rounds of the draft.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen, Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze
Round 8, Pick 96: Draft a running back
As mentioned above, this team is now in need of a lot of running backs — hopefully, some with the potential to be consistent fantasy starters. If none of them hit, then you’ll have to go based on matchups each week.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, with a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants for 2024 and should be the featured running back.
He played 29-of-33 snaps with the starters in the second preseason game, making it clear he will see more playing time than the vast majority of running backs picked ahead of him. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the NFL's worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It's also possible that he won't play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Chase Brown, Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin
Round 9, Pick 97: Draft a running back
Top Target: Brian Robinson Jr. (Player Profile)
Robinson appears to be the primary running back in Washington, as he played 16 of 29 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He’s expected to handle most early-down work, while Austin Ekeler will likely take on passing-down duties. The Washington Commanders made a few offensive line changes that should help, and they are unlikely to be as pass-happy as last season.
Possible Targets: Chase Brown, Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Austin Ekeler
Round 10, Pick 120: Draft a wide receiver
The next three rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, drafting whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very consistent. He’s finished between 77.0 and 83.0 in each of the past six seasons. While everyone is excited for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will ideally be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Possible Targets: Jakobi Meyers, Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed
Round 11, Pick 121: Draft a running back
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard (Player Profile)
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 campaign. He played at least 64% of his team's offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those outings, including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Carolina Panthers added Jonathon Brooks as the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he is coming off a torn ACL. He is starting the season on the non-football injury list, which will cost him at least the first four games. Hubbard will be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Jaleel McLaughlin, Zach Charbonnet, Jordan Mason, Trey Benson, Tyler Allgeier
Round 12, Pick 144: Draft a running back
Top Target: Jordan Mason
Mason has played so well that his 92.6 PFF overall grade over the past two seasons is the best among all running backs, regardless of sample size. Elijah Mitchell is out for the season, making Mason the top backup for Christian McCaffrey. If McCaffrey were to get injured, Mason would likely be a top-10 fantasy running back.
Possible Targets: Tyler Allgeier, Bucky Irving, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins, Ray Davis
Round 13, Pick 145: Draft a tight end
After missing out on a top-four tight end, it's worth considering a backup option. Given his strong preseason and past fantasy performances, Taysom Hill is arguably the best choice. However, if someone else drafts Hill, it might be acceptable to skip a backup tight end altogether.
Top Target: Taysom Hill
Hill played 20 of 31 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He played four snaps at halfback, five snaps at fullback, eight snaps at tight end, two snaps from the slot and two snaps out wide. That 64.5% snap rate is something Hill has never achieved in a game outside of when he was a starting quarterback. If he keeps that rate up in the regular season, he would be a top-five fantasy tight end.
Possible Targets: T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Cade Otton, Colby Parkinson, Chigoziem Okonkwo
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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