• Wide receiver is the right first-round pick outside of 1.01: Christian McCaffrey is the right pick at 1.01, but at any other pick in the first round, a wide receiver is the right way to go.
• Find a top-six quarterback and tight end: Picking one of the elite quarterbacks and tight ends was a winning strategy last season and should be again this year.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 22
Round 1, Picks 1-12: Draft a wide receiver or Christian McCaffrey
Anyone with the top overall pick should take McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year. Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are both worthy of being selected in the first round, but both also have slightly higher ADPs than they should given the talent at wide receiver. That means if you pick anywhere from second to 12th, wide receiver is the best option.
Top Target: CeeDee Lamb (Player Profile)
Lamb noticeably improved each season and now, he’s at the top of the position. He finished last season as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury, and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of the other top wide receiver options.
Possible Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua
Round 2, Picks 13-24: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Last season, the perfect pick in the second round was often a quarter. Patrick Mahomes ADP was a bit high, but either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was typically the best pick. Those two quarterbacks also happened to be the quarterbacks most frequently on ESPN championship game teams last season. While Hurts lost Jason Kelce and Allen lost Stefon Diggs, they are both still worthy of second-round picks.
Hurts’ ADP has fallen to the third round on all major sites while Allen has fallen to the third on most sites and is at the end of the second in the other. Because of the lower ADP, we can wait a round for a quarterback. It will vary depending on which position is a value. Whichever position isn’t picked here will likely be the position of weakness on this roster.
Top Target: Kyren Williams
Williams scored the second-most fantasy points per game by a running back with a clear three-point lead over everyone who wasn’t Christian McCaffrey. Part of that was because of a 90.5 run grade that ranked third among those with 50 or more carries. He also played at least 77% of his team's offensive snaps in all but three games, and at least 94% of its snaps in four games. Chances are Blake Corum will cut into his playing time a little bit to keep Williams well-rested, but he should remain the feature back for the Los Angeles Rams.
Possible Targets: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Derrick Henry, Chris Olave, Drake London
Round 3, Picks 25-36: Draft a wide receiver or quarterback
As mentioned in Round 2, the hope is for Allen or Hurts to fall to this pick to get a top-two fantasy quarterback at a value. If you didn’t want to wait and a quarterback was selected in Round 2, or if both Allen and Hurts are off the board, then wide receiver is the clear choice in Round 3. There are several players who are the clear top wide receivers on their team with a long history of fantasy production to pick from.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is elite at both passing, elite at rushing and runs a lot. There is an obvious risk with the Stefon Diggs loss but the Bills general recharge means they will need to depend more heavily on Allen, which should allow his fantasy production to remain high.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Brandon Aiyuk, D.K. Metcalf, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
Round 4, Picks 37-48: Draft a running back, wide receiver or Trey McBride
At tight end, there is a clear gap between Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce compared to the rest of the tight ends. Their price tag is a little high, and there are a number of other tight ends ranked third to seventh that are a better value, all of which could get picked in Rounds 4 and 5. Depending on where you’re picking in the round, it could make sense to grab a tight end here rather than waiting one more round. If you choose to pass on tight end, there are valuable running backs and wide receivers available that won’t be available in the next round.
Top Target: Trey McBride (Player Profile)
McBride was the clear top tight end of the 2022 draft class. He had a slow start to his career, but he was competing with veteran Zach Ertz and rarely got to play with Kyler Murray until late last season. In 2022, Murray and Ertz both barely played in the second half of the season due to injury. In 2023, Murray didn’t return to the starting role until Week 10. McBride’s fantasy production per game increased to 14.9 points per game with Murray. No tight end averaged that many points per game over the entire season last year.
Possible Targets: James Cook, D.K. Metcalf, Joe Mixon, DeVonta Smith, D.J. Moore
Round 5, Picks 49-60: Draft a tight end, wide receiver or Aaron Jones
If you didn’t draft a tight end in the fourth round, this is the last time to find a tight end that you will be happy with this season. After this point, it’s very hard to find someone who will finish in the top five unless there are multiple injuries to the great tight ends. Outside of tight end, the depth at this point is at wide receiver, as multiple players are the clear top option of their team.
Top Target: Malik Nabers (Player Profile)
Seven wide receivers were selected in the first half of the first round from 2021-2023. Six finished as top-32 fantasy wide receivers, except Jameson Williams, who came into the NFL with an ACL tear. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were the only ones picked in the top six, and they finished fifth and 13th, respectively. Nabers isn’t quite in the same situation as Chase or Waddle, but he should join the other highly draft rookies who are clear fantasy starters in their first season.
Possible Targets: Aaron Jones, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Amari Cooper, Zay Flowers
Round 6, Picks 61-72: Draft a running back or Joe Burrow
The running backs, at this point of the draft, are favorites to start when healthy but are facing significant competition. While these running backs aren’t necessarily the most exciting names, only so many are expected to be clear starters on their team even if they are on the older side. It’s good to have someone you can put in your starting lineup on a weekly basis as long as they aren’t injured. This is also the best point to pick a quarterback if you missed out on Allen and Hurts in the third round.
Top Target: Aaron Jones (Player Profile)
Jones is tied for fifth in PFF offensive grade over the last three seasons at 90.7, but he’s been held back by the Green Bay Packers running back committee. Jones only has eight rushing touchdowns over the last three years compared to the bigger A.J. Dillon‘s 14. He played over 60% of Green Bay's offensive snaps in half of games in 2021 and 2022, but that fell to just the final game of 2023 thanks to an injury-filled season.
In Minnesota, he will have minimal competition for snaps and touches compared to other running backs. Given how successful he’s been regardless of the situation, he is worth the risk at this point of the draft given he will be 30 by the end of the season and his recent injury history.
Possible Targets: Joe Burrow, James Conner, Zamir White, Rhamondre Stevenson, D'Andre Swift
Round 7, Picks 73-84: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Chris Godwin
Godwin was a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in both 2021 and 2022, but his health was a concern in 2023, so they kept him as an outside receiver rather than his traditional role of moving to the slot in three-receiver sets. On top of being healthy and his ideal role, he gains Liam Coen as an offensive coordinator. Coen worked with Cooper Kupp as an assistant wide receivers coach in 2018 and 2019 before he was the offensive coordinator in 2022, when Kupp led all wide receivers in fantasy points per game at 22.4. Godwin has excellent potential in the middle rounds of the draft.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey, Rashee Rice
Round 8, Picks 85-96: Draft a running back or wide receiver
At this point, this team should already have two running backs, but it’s time to pick up a third. There are a few running backs in two-player committees where either one has a chance to have a breakout season given their and their team's talent. The eighth round is the perfect time to pick up one of these running backs because once they are gone, any other running back is much more of a gamble.
Top Target: Jaylen Warren
Warren finished last season with the 22nd-most fantasy points just ahead of teammate Najee Harris. His role has primarily been as a receiving back, but Warren has outplayed Harris as a runner outside of clear short-yardage situations. The Steelers have a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. Warren is more like Bijan Robinson and Harris is more like Tyler Allgeier, so there is a chance the gap between Warren and Harris’ fantasy value will grow this season.
Possible Targets: DeAndre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zack Moss, Courtland Sutton
Round 9, Picks 97-108: Draft a wide receiver or running back
Wide receiver is a clear weak point after waiting until the seventh round to draft a third. That would make it seem like wide receiver is the right pick here, but a lot of the best options will also be available in Round 10, unless someone slides. A few running backs have a solid chance to be the early down back, so I don’t mind adding a fourth running back and then going hard after wide receivers in the following few rounds.
Top Target: Javonte Williams
Williams was everyone’s favorite running back heading into the 2022 season. It wasn’t until Week 4 when he was finally unleashed and playing the every-down role people were hopeful for, but that role only lasted for a half as he tore his ACL and LCL. Williams returned for the 2023 season, but as Sean Payton recently acknowledged, it often takes two seasons before someone is back to full speed and strength.
The Broncos brought back Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine in addition to drafting Audric Estime, giving Williams plenty of competition. There are a wide range of outcomes for Williams, ranging from him re-gaining a feature role to him getting buried on the depth chart, and everywhere in between.
Possible Targets: Devin Singletary, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Tyjae Spears, Ezekiel Elliott
Round 10, Picks 109-120: Draft a running back or wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d advise stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. A running back or wide receiver who somewhat exceeds expectations here would be in your starting lineup in a good matchup but even a quarterback or tight end who is picked here and has a good season won’t start over the star quarterback and tight end selected, regardless of the matchup.
Top Target: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very consistent. He’s finished between 77-83 in each of the last six seasons. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. While everyone is excited for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, ideally, Grubb will be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Possible Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, Jerome Ford, Curtis Samuel
Round 11, Picks 121-132: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Mike Williams
Williams finished last season with the 10th-most fantasy points per game at wide receiver, albeit on three games played. He caught 15 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown in his last two games but then tore his ACL. His injury history is extensive, and he might not be ready to start the season. Williams signed with the New York Jets in free agency, and his new head coach Robert Saleh compared his timeline to Breece Hall’s last year. Williams might not be a fantasy starter in September or October, but if the Jets offense is playing well, Williams could be a steal over the second half of the season.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Curtis Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer
Round 12, Picks 133-144: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Brandin Cooks
It took a few weeks for Cooks to start producing in the Dallas Cowboys offense last season, but he scored the 24th-most fantasy points for a wide receiver from Week 6 until the end of the season. As mentioned with CeeDee Lamb, the offense has lost some of its receiving production and didn’t bring in much to replace them, which should put more emphasis on the other Cowboys receivers. A lot of Cooks’ fantasy production came from touchdowns which is bound to regress, but three of his best four games in terms of targets and receptions came in the last three weeks of the season including the playoffs. If Cooks can continue that momentum into the 2024 season, he will be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Possible Targets: Antonio Gibson, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Tyler Allgeier, Rico Dowdle
Round 13, Picks 145-156: Draft a running back or Dontayvion Wicks
Top Target: Antonio Gibson
Gibson’s fantasy value was minimal last season as he was only used as a receiving back. He signed a three-year, $11.25 million contract with the New England Patriots, giving him a bigger contract than other free agents like Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss and Gus Edwards. While he’s competing with playing time with Rhamondre Stevenson, there is a chance he earns a significant role and could be a feature back if Stevenson suffers an injury.
Possible Targets: Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dontayvion Wicks, Khalil Herbert
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.