• A top-five wide receiver is likely to fall: With three running backs typically selected among the top six picks, at least two elite wide receivers should be available at Pick No. 7.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Last year, quarterbacks selected in Round 2 proved to be league winners. This year, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description once again, but they can be drafted a round later in 2024.
• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy draft rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking seventh.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Saturday, August 31
Round 1, Pick 7: Draft a wide receiver
In most leagues, the top three running backs are typically selected within the first six picks, making wide receivers the better value in the second half of the first round. While Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley both have ADPs in the late first round, it's worth noting that they are older players whose best seasons were a few years ago. Although there's reason for optimism around them this year, there's also the risk that they might not return to their previous form. Therefore, the safer strategy is to pick a wide receiver in the first round.
Top Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Player Profile)
In 2022, St. Brown posted excellent numbers in every statistic aside from routes run per game, but the Detroit Lions fixed that in 2023 by keeping him on the field more often. This led to more routes per game and more production in general. He was also targeted in the red zone more frequently, a significant reason why he recorded double-digit touchdowns for the first time. St. Brown deserves to get picked in the top half of the first round of PPR drafts. The Lions' run-first offense and Jared Goff’s aversion to deep passes might prevent St. Brown from being in the overall WR1 conversation, but an argument can be made that the Lions receiver is the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year.
Possible Targets: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Round 2, Pick 18: Draft a wide receiver
This pick is primarily about maximizing value. Typically, the top seven running backs and top nine wide receivers are off the board by this point. If one of those players unexpectedly falls out of the top 17, feel free to select them. However, if everything closely followed ADP, Davante Adams is likely the best player available and should be the pick.
Top Target: Davante Adams (Player Profile)
The big reason to be excited about Davante Adams this year is his reunion with Luke Getsy, who played a pivotal role in Adams' development. When Getsy became the Packers' wide receivers coach in 2016, Adams' production skyrocketed from 483 yards and one touchdown to 997 yards and 12 touchdowns. In 2017, Adams earned his first Pro Bowl selection.
Getsy then left for a stint as the offensive coordinator at Mississippi State before returning to the Packers as the quarterbacks coach. In 2020, he added the title of passing game coordinator, which coincided with Adams earning his first All-Pro season. Adams continued to excel in 2021 under Getsy, finishing as a first-team All-Pro once again.
Last season, the Raiders coaching staff had a history with Jakobi Meyers, which benefited Meyers, particularly early in the season. Now, with Getsy on board, the Raiders have a coach who can maximize Adams' potential. Adams is excited about this reunion, and it's likely a significant reason why he's content to stay with the Raiders rather than seek a trade.
Possible Targets: Chris Olave, Drake London, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle
Round 3, Pick 31: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year, the other options are a top tight end or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but more of a gamble.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his “tush push” touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the past three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering that one of those four is a backup, and the other two are at an age where we have stopped seeing as much rushing production, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. Hurts is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corps and offensive line, so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Round 4, Pick 42: Draft a running back
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. This running back tier is valuable if everything goes according to plan but a lot can go wrong. All six backs available at this point have averaged at least 14.5 PPR points per game over a significant stretch during the last two seasons, but most of the teams these running backs played for have invested a significant draft pick on another running back. Enough has been invested in these six that they are unlikely to completely disappear even if they lose playing time.
Top Target: Joe Mixon (Player Profile)
Mixon has been a consistent top-12 fantasy running back in both total ranking and points per game. Although he enters a new environment in 2024, he will play in a high-scoring offense as the Houston Texans‘ clear lead running back. While he’s never been the most explosive runner, it’s fair to think he will finish in the top 12 yet again. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently said Mixon is “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” The offenses Slowik has been part of generally run the ball more than average, which should continue to be true with Mixon.
Possible Targets: Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Montgomery
Round 5, Pick 55: Draft a wide receiver
Rashee Rice is currently the best value in drafts, depending on where you are drafting. Underdog Best Ball drafts have him going in the fourth round while NFL.com has him in the eighth. Most other places are between the end of the fifth round and the start of the seventh. It’s unlikely that he will be suspended this season, as most people had been drafting him as if he was going to be suspended. With the assumption he’s not suspended, he would be worth a late fourth-round pick.
To be on the safe side, Rice is the pick here, even though a week ago, he was the perfect pick a round or two later.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
The risk of him being suspended this season is relatively small, with a suspension in 2025 more likely. The team recently added JuJu Smith-Schuster, but this move seems more like an upgrade to their backups rather than a threat to Rice's role.
Possible Targets: George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin
Round 6, Pick 66: Draft a running back
There are multiple options for this pick depending on how the rest of the draft has gone. The big gamble is at tight end, where — unless you picked Kyle Pitts in the last round — you probably don’t have one. Jake Ferguson is the clear next-best option, and there is a chance he will be available in the next round. If you don’t want to risk it, pick him here. If this team passed on a quarterback in the third round, this would also be the time to add a quarterback. Otherwise, running back is the best option.
Top Target: Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson didn’t quite live up to expectations last season with 12.1 fantasy points per game, but a lot of that had to do with the Patriots offense more so than Stevenson. The Patriots ran 98 plays in the red zone — 22 fewer than the next-worst team. The quarterback situation should be a lot better this season, as well as the wide receivers. Ideally, the young offensive linemen can also improve, leading to more efficiency. At the very least, the Patriots still believe in Stevenson after recently signing a four-year, $36 million extension.
Possible Targets: Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams
Round 7, Pick 79: Draft a tight end
The option here is simple: If you don’t have a tight end yet and Ferguson is available, add Ferguson. If not, pick the best available running back.
Top Target: Jake Ferguson (Player Profile)
Ferguson had a slow start to the season with 15 or fewer yards in three of his first six games, but from Week 8 on after the Cowboys' bye week, he was a consistent producer. He was TE7 from that point on with 11.8 fantasy points per game. All of the stats shown in these tables and graphs are for the regular season only, but it’s worth noting he had by far the best game of his career in the wild card round, as he caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
Ferguson was TE9 last season and currently has an ADP of TE9, but everything is pointing up for him. His talent, situation, age, play, competition for targets and consistency with the coach and quarterback are all working for Ferguson. He is the clear-cut top option for anyone who missed out on a tight end in the first five rounds.
Possible Targets: Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Taysom Hill, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson
Round 8, Pick 90: Draft a wide receiver
In the eighth round, the best value is largely at wide receiver. With a balanced lineup already in place, you can now focus on selecting the best players available. While many running backs in this range are in committees and carry some risk, there are plenty of veteran wide receivers in new situations and younger wide receivers who offer good value.
Top Target: Hollywood Brown
Brown was a top-21 fantasy wide receiver in PPR points per game in 2021 and 2022, but his 2023 role changed after the Arizona Cardinals moved on from DeAndre Hopkins. That and the quarterback situation resulted in a lack of production in 2023, but he has an opportunity for a huge season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Brown is consistently near the top of our separation metrics, which could make him a perfect pairing for Patrick Mahomes. Xavier Worthy’s playing time in the preseason, along with Brown’s injury, has pushed Brown’s ADP by a few rounds, making him a value at his current price.
Possible Targets: Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Tyler Lockett
Round 9, Pick 103: Draft a running back
There have generally been a few running backs available here who are either the lead running back or in a clear two-man competition with a lot of potential. After that, the running back quality drops off significantly. While this team doesn’t necessarily need another running back, it’s fine to pick one here and lean more on wide receivers later.
Top Target: Chase Brown
Brown is competing with Zack Moss for Cincinnati's starting running back job. Throughout training camp, he’s received plenty of first-team looks and has shined throughout. During the first preseason game, he received opportunities on third-and-long — a situation he wasn’t involved with last season — so he has an opportunity to be much more involved in the passing game. He’s a gamble but a solid one to make at this point in the draft.
Possible Targets: Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford, Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Corum
Round 10, Pick 114: Draft a running back
The next three rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Brian Robinson Jr. (Player Profile)
Robinson appears to be the primary running back in Washington, as he played 16 of 29 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He’s expected to handle most early-down work, while Austin Ekeler will likely take on passing-down duties. The Washington Commanders made a few offensive line changes that should help, and they are unlikely to be as pass-happy as last season.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Corum, Ezekiel Elliott, Zach Charbonnet
Round 11, Pick 127: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Brandin Cooks
It took a few weeks for Cooks to start producing in the Dallas Cowboys offense last season, but he scored the 24th-most fantasy points for a wide receiver from Week 6 until the end of the season. The offense has lost some of its receiving production and didn’t bring in much to replace them, which should put more emphasis on the other Cowboys receivers. A lot of Cooks’ fantasy production came from touchdowns which is bound to regress, but three of his best four games in terms of targets and receptions came in the last three weeks of the season, including the playoffs. If Cooks can continue that momentum into the 2024 season, he will be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Possible Targets: Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer, Jerry Jeudy, Gabe Davis
Round 12, Pick 138: Draft a running back
Top Target: Jaleel McLaughlin
McLaughlin was the sixth-highest-graded running back last season with an 86.2 offensive grade. His yards per carry and avoided tackle rate were both top 10 among running backs. He also led all running backs in targets per route, leading to a top-10 yards per route run figure (1.63). After Samaje Perine‘s departure, McLaughlin should take on a larger role in the passing game, making him a potential fantasy starter.
Possible Targets: Jordan Mason, Tyler Allgeier, Bucky Irving, Antonio Gibson, Ty Chandler
Round 13, Pick 151: Draft a tight end
After missing out on a top-four tight end, it's worth considering a backup option. Given his strong preseason and past fantasy performances, Hill is arguably the best choice. However, if someone else drafts Hill, it might be acceptable to skip a backup tight end altogether.
Top Target: Taysom Hill
Hill played 20 of 31 snaps with the starters in the preseason. He played four snaps at halfback, five snaps at fullback, eight snaps at tight end, two snaps from the slot and two snaps out wide. That 64.5% snap rate is something Hill has never achieved in a game outside of when he was a starting quarterback. If he keeps that rate up in the regular season, Hill would be a top-five fantasy tight end.
Possible Targets: Noah Fant, Cade Otton, Colby Parkinson, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Isaiah Likely
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
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