- Multiple wide receiver options available in the first round: Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs highlight the best options in the first round to give a fantasy football team a solid foundation.
- Add two top-10 running backs: Great running back options should be available both near the end of the second round and near the start of the third, making running back a strength of this team.
- Multiple options for picking an elite tight end: Based on ADP, someone picking in this range should have a shot at any of the top tight ends without reaching.
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
The perfect 2023 fantasy football draft series combines current average draft positions from expert and casual drafts to see which players should be available at each pick, and then we make the best picks given that information.
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Round 1, Picks 4-6: Draft a wide receiver
There are plenty of options to pick from this early, including the possibility Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler falls, one of the top tier wide receivers, or Travis Kelce. This is an interesting spot because there are good values at a lot of positions that can happen in later picks. This is the only time someone can consider Kelce, but also tight end can be found at a good value later. It can often be good to consider a quarterback in Round 2, but a quarterback can also be found at a good value later.
This allows a team to start with two running backs and a wide receiver without worrying about the other positions, and the best way to add that combination is by starting at wide receiver.
Top Target: Tyreek Hill
Hill was the most efficient wide receiver in fantasy football last season, and he can build on his success in 2023.
- Hill produced a 31.3% target rate, leading to a catch on 22.3% of his routes. Those both ranked first out of 73 wide receivers with at least 345 routes last season.
- All of those receptions helped him average just more than 100 receiving yards per game, which ranked second best among wide receivers.
- The biggest concern for Hill’s fantasy potential is how the Dolphins rotate their wide receivers. Hill played in every game in 2022 but ranked only 32nd in number of routes run.
- Hill was on the field for just 76.1% of offensive snaps. That includes 84.2% of pass plays and 59.4% of run plays.
- For comparison, Justin Jefferson was on the field for 94.4% of the Minnesota Vikings’ pass plays and Ja’Marr Chase was on the field for 98.8% of the Cincinnati Bengals’ pass plays in games for which he was healthy.
- This helped Hill stay efficient because he was more rested compared to other elite wide receivers.
- This makes it less likely he will see significant regression in his quality of play, but it also puts a ceiling on his potential.
- Hill’s production will partially rely on Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy all season.
- He still produced a high targets-per-route-run figure when Tagovailoa was out, at 27.0%, but his yards per route run fell to 2.08 and he didn’t score a touchdown in the five games Tagovailoa missed, including the playoffs.
- For comparison, his targets per route figure with Tagovailoa was 33.2% and he averaged 3.51 yards per route run.
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